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From: RonO <rokimoto@cox.net>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: OT? Dairy flu
Date: Sun, 2 Jun 2024 09:26:48 -0500
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On 5/27/2024 9:03 AM, RonO wrote:
> On 5/27/2024 1:45 AM, vallor wrote:
>> On Sat, 25 May 2024 12:49:10 -0500, RonO <rokimoto@cox.net> wrote in
>> <v2t8an$2vo1m$1@dont-email.me>:
>>
>>> On 5/25/2024 9:49 AM, *Hemidactylus* wrote:
>>>> RonO <rokimoto@cox.net> wrote:
>>>>> The CDC issued an alert yesterday that they were initiating planning
>>>>> for "possiblity of increased risk to human health" from the dairy flu.
>>>>>   The CDC has screwed up by the numbers in terms of evolution of the
>>>>> virus and the threat to humans.  They knew from the first detections
>>>>> that humans were being infected, but they didn't initiate testing and
>>>>> contact tracing.  Humans had already likely spread the virus to other
>>>>> dairy herds for some time.  They knew from the first sequencing
>>>>> results that many states did not get cattle but ended up with the
>>>>> virus.  People were the obvious vector for spread of the virus between
>>>>> herds.  We have known for years that the flu virus only survives for
>>>>> around 5 hours on the skin and maybe up to 12 hours on clothing, but
>>>>> we also know that you have to be infected within a few minutes of
>>>>> getting it on your skin or clothing because the virus doesn't seem to
>>>>> be infective after a few minutes on those surfaces.  The virus
>>>>> survives the longest on hard surfaces and is infective off those
>>>>> surfaces for up to 24 hours, but the poultry farms that were infected
>>>>> by the dairy virus in the same counties as the infected herds would
>>>>> have had little reason to exchange equipment.  Infected humans likely
>>>>> took the virus to those poultry farms.  The two known human cases were
>>>>> shedding infective virus.  The CDC has understood this from the very
>>>>> beginning of their involvement, but they failed to act on it.  They
>>>>> claim that it isn't their policy to force testing onto farm workers,
>>>>> so they never checked to determine the rate that humans were being
>>>>> infected even though there was ancedotal evidence of other dairy
>>>>> workers with red eye (eye infection).  The crazy thing is these red
>>>>> eye individuals can infect other humans.  They got infected, and they
>>>>> are shedding virus.  If the CDC had started testing and contact
>>>>> tracing they would already know how the other herds and poultry flocks
>>>>> got infected.
>>>>>
>>>>> What they needed to do was identify all the infected herds and
>>>>> quarantine the herds and farm workers, but the USDA and CDC were not
>>>>> interested in contact tracing and tracking down additional cases.
>>>>> They both claimed to rely on farm reporting.  This is stupid.  The FDA
>>>>> tested milk products from 38 states.  They tested products that came
>>>>> from milk processing plants in those states and found 17 states with
>>>>> H5N1 positive milk samples, but would not release the names of the
>>>>> states because they claimed to only be worried about the safety of the
>>>>> food chain. Pasteurization was found to kill the virus.  When the FDA
>>>>> finally did release the names of the states a couple weeks later it
>>>>> was found that 9 new states not yet identified as having positive
>>>>> dairy herds had produced milk products that were positive for the
>>>>> dairy virus.  3 of the states already known to have infected herds
>>>>> were not found to have positive dairy products, so they likely missed
>>>>> some positive states of the 38 tested.  The CDC could have predicted
>>>>> the results because they started to monitor waste water and most of
>>>>> the new states that were found to have positive dairy products had
>>>>> also shown flu virus in the waste water.
>>>>>
>>>>> The CDC knows that the longer that they allow humans to be infected by
>>>>> the dairy virus the more likely that it will evolve into a strain that
>>>>> will start killing people.  Currently the infected humans only have
>>>>> mild eye irritation (the virus infects mammary glands and apparently
>>>>> tear ducts).  The initial sequencing results indicated that there were
>>>>> already variants of the virus with mutations that would make them more
>>>>> infective in mammals, but they were minor variants at the time of the
>>>>> sample collections.  As the virus adapts to cattle these variants are
>>>>> probably the most likely to be selected for.  The virus is infecting a
>>>>> lot more herds than they are tracking, and it is evolving in all those
>>>>> herds and the dairy workers are exposed to that evolving virus.  I
>>>>> should note that the cats that got infected by the dairy virus had
>>>>> high mortality because the virus infected their brains.  Influenza
>>>>> virus is normally a respiratory virus, but if this virus adapted to
>>>>> infecting human brains that would be a real tragedy.
>>>>>
>>>>> So instead of trying to limit the current spread, the CDC has decided
>>>>> to prepare for human transmission of the next pandemic virus.  It
>>>>> doesn't sound like they are preparing correctly because you want to
>>>>> limit the first human cases with severe symptoms.  In order to do that
>>>>> you have to identify them as soon as you can.  The humans currently
>>>>> being infected are dairy workers, so you need to identify all the
>>>>> infected herds and monitor the dairy workers and their human contacts.
>>>>>   The next pandemic could have already started in one of the states
>>>>> with unidentified infected dairy herds.  They need to track down the
>>>>> dairies that contributed to the milk of the processing plants that
>>>>> produced positive milk samples.  They need to go to the counties with
>>>>> positive waste water (these include multiple sites in California that
>>>>> has not yet claimed to have positive herds and several of these sites
>>>>> are in rural areas surrounding the bay area, the CDC nightmare
>>>>> scenario) and identify infected herds.  They need to track the
>>>>> contacts of the dairy workers so that they can identify more infected
>>>>> herds in states that are already known to have infected herds.  Once
>>>>> they identify all the possible sources of infection they can monitor
>>>>> those herds and people and then try to keep any virus from spreading
>>>>> and becoming a pandemic.
>>>>>
>>>> My hot and possibly wrong takes are that they are dealing with a very
>>>> influential and somewhat litigious industry. Ask Oprah. They are also
>>>> dealing with a subset of the population induced with reactance. Tell
>>>> them not to drink raw milk and its popularity will rise. They should
>>>> ramp up H5 based flu shot production but that’s a crap shoot for
>>>> matching and effectiveness and this virus is not friendly to eggs.
>>>>
>>>>
>>> The dairy workers were resistant to be tested.  Many were illegal aliens
>>> and didn't want to be interviewed nor go to a doctor.  The Dairy owners
>>> were reluctant to participate because there was no incentive for them to
>>> do so, and the USDA policy was to depopulate poultry flocks and all
>>> poultry within a mile of the infected flock.  The poultry flocks that
>>> were infected with the dairy virus were all depopulated.  6 and a half
>>> million layers in Michigan alone.  Multiple turkey flocks have gone down
>>> in Minnesota and have had to be depopulated, and Minnesota is one of the
>>> states that had positive milk products, but they do not admit to having
>>> infected herds.  Minnesota also has 3 positive waste water locations in
>>> the state.
>>>
>>> So there is a lot of politics involved, but the end result is that the
>>> virus has been allowed to spread, and there doesn't seem to be any
>>> movement in trying to stop the spread.  Multiple waste water sites
>>> around the bay area in Northern California are claimed to be above
>>> average in influenza content of the waste water (the claim is that they
>>> are orders of magnitude higher) but there isn't any claims that they are
>>> testing dairies in those counties.  The nightmare scenario is that
>>> patient zero is in the bay area and their contacts board an
>>> international flight as the virus takes hold in San Francisco before
>>> anyone notices.
>>>
>>> One thing of note is the infamous masking requirements and social
>>> distancing required for Covid was found to work extremely well to stop
>>> influenza infections.  30,000 to 70,000 people usually die of influenza
>>> each year in the USA, but only a minimal number of fatalities occurred
>>> during the masking required during Covid.  It tells us that we could
>>> probably save around 40,000 people a year if we masked up during flu
>>> season, and had the surface sanitation policies in action.  My take is
>>> that the biggest advantage of masking is that if an infected person is
>>> required to wear a mask they deposit a lot less virus into the
>>> environment around them by sneezing and coughing.
>>>
>>> Ron Okimoto
>>
>> https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4684694-mice-bird-flu-raw-milk/
>>
>> Mice experienced high levels of bird flu after being given raw milk: 
>> Study
>>
>> Is this the flu you are referring to?  (Wish you'd source your info...)
>>
>> (I live in the SF bay area, but I don't drink unpasteurized milk.)
>>
>> ObOrigins:
>> The _fact_ that diseases evolve is part of the _fact_ of evolution.  When
>> people talk about how evolution is "only a theory", they get it wrong:
>> the _theory_ of evolution is the scientific theory explaining the
>> _observed fact_ of evolution.
>>
> 
> Look at the CDC waste water data for California.  California has not 
> started testing dairy herds, but multiple waste water sites around the 
> bay area have high levels of influenza in their waste water, as high as 
> counties known to have infected dairy herds.  It looks like the bay area 
> is surrounded by infected dairy herds, but no one wants to check. 
> Several of those counties have issued warnings not to drink raw milk, 
> but they don't want to verify that they have the issue for some stupid 
> reason.
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