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From: RonO <rokimoto557@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: California Dairy herds positive for the dairy virus
Date: Sat, 14 Sep 2024 17:09:15 -0500
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On 9/12/2024 11:59 AM, RonO wrote:
> On 9/11/2024 12:05 PM, RonO wrote:
>> On 9/8/2024 6:55 PM, RonO wrote:
>>> On 9/7/2024 2:17 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>> On 9/6/2024 5:34 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>> On 9/4/2024 8:23 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>> 3 herds in California central valley have been found to be 
>>>>>> positive for the dairy virus.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> https://www.statnews.com/2024/08/29/california-nations-largest- 
>>>>>> milk- producer-discloses-possible-bird-flu-outbreaks-in-three- 
>>>>>> dairy-cow- herds/
>>>>>>
>>>>>> They claim that California workers are "usually" dedicated to just 
>>>>>> one herd so do not pick up shifts at nearby poultry farms, but 
>>>>>> months ago (before I retired in May) I noted that California had 
>>>>>> high levels of influenza virus in the waste water around the bay 
>>>>>> area.  At that time they had estimated that the virus first 
>>>>>> infected cattle Sept or Oct 2023, and they hadn't yet found viral 
>>>>>> sequence from herds infected that early in Texas.  When I looked 
>>>>>> into the avian influenza cases the Dairy virus was most similar to 
>>>>>> one isolated from a Peregrine falcon in California.  California 
>>>>>> had high levels of influenza virus in their waste water 
>>>>>> (associated with infected herds in Texas and Michigan) and 
>>>>>> Commercial poultry farms started to go down in the central valley 
>>>>>> in Oct 2023 (the flocks get infected by the dairy workers).  A 
>>>>>> number of flocks went down within a few months working their way 
>>>>>> up North and around the bay area.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I contacted a person at the Avian disease ARS station in Georgia, 
>>>>>> and tried to get the name of the person that would have the 
>>>>>> sequence data of the California samples (they had not been 
>>>>>> included in any of the dairy virus studies) but I was told that 
>>>>>> the USDA did not give out that information.  I told the guy that 
>>>>>> they needed to check out those samples, but his comment was that 
>>>>>> they were busy.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> My prediction is that when they sequence the central valley virus 
>>>>>> they could identify the region where the initial dairy infection 
>>>>>> occurred and it spread from California to Texas.  The virus spread 
>>>>>> rapidly out of Texas, but it probably came from somewhere else.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The CDC and USDA would have identified many more states with 
>>>>>> infected herds by now if they had acted on the waste water data 
>>>>>> and the FDA identification of states with virus positive dairy 
>>>>>> products.  The Dairy workers are not being protected from being 
>>>>>> infected in states that refuse to identify their infected herds.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>
>>>>> https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/person-infected-bird- 
>>>>> flu- missouri-no-contact-animals-know-rcna170010
>>>>>
>>>>> There has been a case of H5N1 in a human in Missouri, but this 
>>>>> person did not have contact with poultry or dairy cattle.  My guess 
>>>>> is that it is person to person transmission.  Missouri is one of 
>>>>> the states that has not verified any positive dairy herds (no one 
>>>>> has been looking), but Kansas and Oklahoma have positive dairy 
>>>>> herds. They have known that it was likely human transmission into 
>>>>> Kansas and North Dakota from Texas because neither states got 
>>>>> cattle from Texas, but both states got the virus from Texas.  Human 
>>>>> to human transmission has probably been going on for some time, but 
>>>>> they never started contact tracing to identify possibly infected 
>>>>> herds nor to determine how the virus was transmitted to the herds 
>>>>> and poultry flocks that have been infected.
>>>>>
>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> The virus is H5, but hasn't been confirmed to be the dairy virus. 
>>>> The article notes that Missouri hasn't claimed to have positive 
>>>> herds at this time, but commercial poultry flocks have gone down and 
>>>> that usually happens when the dairies are infected and dairy workers 
>>>> take it to the poultry farms.  Previous human cases had mild 
>>>> symptoms, but this person was hospitalized.  The USDA and CDC are 
>>>> still not doing anything to identify all the infected herds in 
>>>> states like Missouri, so nothing much has been done to minimize the 
>>>> exposure of dairy workers.  My guess is that an infected dairy 
>>>> worker infected this patient, and it is a case of human to human 
>>>> transmission.
>>>>
>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>
>>>
>>> As stupid as it may be the CDC response to the latest human infection 
>>> without contact with animals is worse than can be imagined.  They did 
>>> not send a team to investigate, and have not started contact tracing 
>>> and testing of close contacts.  It seems crazy when you think that 
>>> the person was hospitalized, and this is obviously a serious case of 
>>> infection.  What they do not want is the 50% human mortality 
>>> associated with the H5N1 virus to become a reality for the dairy 
>>> virus.  The CDC continues to do nothing but monitor the disease in 
>>> two states, which is just nuts.  They are actually waiting for it to 
>>> become a noticeable problem somewhere else before starting to do 
>>> anything in other states.
>>>
>>> https://www.statnews.com/2024/09/08/missouri-h5-bird-flu-case- 
>>> questions- cat-raw-milk/
>>>
>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>
>>> R
>>>
>> https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-09-missouri-resident-bird-flu- 
>> livestock.html
>>
>> This ariticle seems to be trying to downplay the possibility of human 
>> to human transmission.  The Texas antibody testing of dairy workers 
>> have already come out with evidence for human to human transmission 
>> because one of the workers positive for H5 antibodies did not have 
>> contact with cattle, and only had contact with other dairy workers.  
>> There was also the case of the indoor cat in Colorado that was 
>> probably infected by humans.  The states that did not get cattle from 
>> affected states, but still got the dairy virus were likely infected by 
>> human dairy workers migrating to those states.  Kansas got infected 
>> from Texas, and then Dakota got infected with the strain in Kansas, 
>> and Kansas did not get cattle from Texas, and South Dakota did not get 
>> cattle from Kansas.  The CDC has known this since about the beginning 
>> of detecting the infections in April, but they never started human 
>> contact tracing to determine how all the dairy herds and poultry 
>> flocks were being infected.
>>
>> Humans have been transmitting the virus since the start of this 
>> fiasco. Humans could have brought the virus into Texas.  The Texas 
>> Dairy worker that was the first infection had a virus that had 
>> branched off earlier than the strain that infected Texas.  They never 
>> got the name of that dairy worker, so they couldn't ask him where he 
>> could have been infected.  He could have been infected in the state 
>> that was the origin of the dairy infection.  One of his fellow dairy 
>> workers could have been infected in that same state, but brought in 
>> the Texas strain (one with more substitutions than the strain that 
>> infected the first dairy worker).
>>
>> Ron Okimoto
>>
> 
> New Texas Waste water data indicates that H5N1 seems to have started to 
> be detected in 10 Texas cities monitored in March 2024 (when the Texas 
> Dairy infections were first detected) but were not found in samples 
> taken earlier in the year.  This study used a detection method that uses 
> a probe to pull out the influenza RNA from the waste water, so they can 
> get the sequence of RNA and determine what strain of influenza they are 
> picking up.  Even though there was no indication of human infections (no 
> increase in influenza cases) the waste water for these cities were 
> positive.  The high levels of influenza in various Texas county's waste 
> water has been attributed to dairy farms, but these samples were from 
> city waste water.  It could still be due to milk products in the waste 
> water, but it might also mean that there were undetected human 
> infections (the letter claims waste water results are due to "multiple 
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