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Subject: Re: California Dairy herds positive for the dairy virus
Date: Sat, 14 Sep 2024 16:12:30 -0700
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On 9/14/24 15:23, RonO wrote:
> On 9/12/2024 11:59 AM, RonO wrote:
>> On 9/11/2024 12:05 PM, RonO wrote:
>>> On 9/8/2024 6:55 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>> On 9/7/2024 2:17 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>> On 9/6/2024 5:34 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>> On 9/4/2024 8:23 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>>> 3 herds in California central valley have been found to be 
>>>>>>> positive for the dairy virus.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> https://www.statnews.com/2024/08/29/california-nations-largest- 
>>>>>>> milk- producer-discloses-possible-bird-flu-outbreaks-in-three- 
>>>>>>> dairy-cow- herds/
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> They claim that California workers are "usually" dedicated to 
>>>>>>> just one herd so do not pick up shifts at nearby poultry farms, 
>>>>>>> but months ago (before I retired in May) I noted that California 
>>>>>>> had high levels of influenza virus in the waste water around the 
>>>>>>> bay area.  At that time they had estimated that the virus first 
>>>>>>> infected cattle Sept or Oct 2023, and they hadn't yet found viral 
>>>>>>> sequence from herds infected that early in Texas.  When I looked 
>>>>>>> into the avian influenza cases the Dairy virus was most similar 
>>>>>>> to one isolated from a Peregrine falcon in California.  
>>>>>>> California had high levels of influenza virus in their waste 
>>>>>>> water (associated with infected herds in Texas and Michigan) and 
>>>>>>> Commercial poultry farms started to go down in the central valley 
>>>>>>> in Oct 2023 (the flocks get infected by the dairy workers).  A 
>>>>>>> number of flocks went down within a few months working their way 
>>>>>>> up North and around the bay area.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I contacted a person at the Avian disease ARS station in Georgia, 
>>>>>>> and tried to get the name of the person that would have the 
>>>>>>> sequence data of the California samples (they had not been 
>>>>>>> included in any of the dairy virus studies) but I was told that 
>>>>>>> the USDA did not give out that information.  I told the guy that 
>>>>>>> they needed to check out those samples, but his comment was that 
>>>>>>> they were busy.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> My prediction is that when they sequence the central valley virus 
>>>>>>> they could identify the region where the initial dairy infection 
>>>>>>> occurred and it spread from California to Texas.  The virus 
>>>>>>> spread rapidly out of Texas, but it probably came from somewhere 
>>>>>>> else.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The CDC and USDA would have identified many more states with 
>>>>>>> infected herds by now if they had acted on the waste water data 
>>>>>>> and the FDA identification of states with virus positive dairy 
>>>>>>> products.  The Dairy workers are not being protected from being 
>>>>>>> infected in states that refuse to identify their infected herds.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>>
>>>>>> https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/person-infected-bird- 
>>>>>> flu- missouri-no-contact-animals-know-rcna170010
>>>>>>
>>>>>> There has been a case of H5N1 in a human in Missouri, but this 
>>>>>> person did not have contact with poultry or dairy cattle.  My 
>>>>>> guess is that it is person to person transmission.  Missouri is 
>>>>>> one of the states that has not verified any positive dairy herds 
>>>>>> (no one has been looking), but Kansas and Oklahoma have positive 
>>>>>> dairy herds. They have known that it was likely human transmission 
>>>>>> into Kansas and North Dakota from Texas because neither states got 
>>>>>> cattle from Texas, but both states got the virus from Texas.  
>>>>>> Human to human transmission has probably been going on for some 
>>>>>> time, but they never started contact tracing to identify possibly 
>>>>>> infected herds nor to determine how the virus was transmitted to 
>>>>>> the herds and poultry flocks that have been infected.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> The virus is H5, but hasn't been confirmed to be the dairy virus. 
>>>>> The article notes that Missouri hasn't claimed to have positive 
>>>>> herds at this time, but commercial poultry flocks have gone down 
>>>>> and that usually happens when the dairies are infected and dairy 
>>>>> workers take it to the poultry farms.  Previous human cases had 
>>>>> mild symptoms, but this person was hospitalized.  The USDA and CDC 
>>>>> are still not doing anything to identify all the infected herds in 
>>>>> states like Missouri, so nothing much has been done to minimize the 
>>>>> exposure of dairy workers.  My guess is that an infected dairy 
>>>>> worker infected this patient, and it is a case of human to human 
>>>>> transmission.
>>>>>
>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> As stupid as it may be the CDC response to the latest human 
>>>> infection without contact with animals is worse than can be 
>>>> imagined.  They did not send a team to investigate, and have not 
>>>> started contact tracing and testing of close contacts.  It seems 
>>>> crazy when you think that the person was hospitalized, and this is 
>>>> obviously a serious case of infection.  What they do not want is the 
>>>> 50% human mortality associated with the H5N1 virus to become a 
>>>> reality for the dairy virus.  The CDC continues to do nothing but 
>>>> monitor the disease in two states, which is just nuts.  They are 
>>>> actually waiting for it to become a noticeable problem somewhere 
>>>> else before starting to do anything in other states.
>>>>
>>>> https://www.statnews.com/2024/09/08/missouri-h5-bird-flu-case- 
>>>> questions- cat-raw-milk/
>>>>
>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>
>>>> R
>>>>
>>> https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-09-missouri-resident-bird-flu- 
>>> livestock.html
>>>
>>> This ariticle seems to be trying to downplay the possibility of human 
>>> to human transmission.  The Texas antibody testing of dairy workers 
>>> have already come out with evidence for human to human transmission 
>>> because one of the workers positive for H5 antibodies did not have 
>>> contact with cattle, and only had contact with other dairy workers. 
>>> There was also the case of the indoor cat in Colorado that was 
>>> probably infected by humans.  The states that did not get cattle from 
>>> affected states, but still got the dairy virus were likely infected 
>>> by human dairy workers migrating to those states.  Kansas got 
>>> infected from Texas, and then Dakota got infected with the strain in 
>>> Kansas, and Kansas did not get cattle from Texas, and South Dakota 
>>> did not get cattle from Kansas.  The CDC has known this since about 
>>> the beginning of detecting the infections in April, but they never 
>>> started human contact tracing to determine how all the dairy herds 
>>> and poultry flocks were being infected.
>>>
>>> Humans have been transmitting the virus since the start of this 
>>> fiasco. Humans could have brought the virus into Texas.  The Texas 
>>> Dairy worker that was the first infection had a virus that had 
>>> branched off earlier than the strain that infected Texas.  They never 
>>> got the name of that dairy worker, so they couldn't ask him where he 
>>> could have been infected.  He could have been infected in the state 
>>> that was the origin of the dairy infection.  One of his fellow dairy 
>>> workers could have been infected in that same state, but brought in 
>>> the Texas strain (one with more substitutions than the strain that 
>>> infected the first dairy worker).
>>>
>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>
>>
>> New Texas Waste water data indicates that H5N1 seems to have started 
>> to be detected in 10 Texas cities monitored in March 2024 (when the 
>> Texas Dairy infections were first detected) but were not found in 
>> samples taken earlier in the year.  This study used a detection method 
>> that uses a probe to pull out the influenza RNA from the waste water, 
>> so they can get the sequence of RNA and determine what strain of 
>> influenza they are picking up.  Even though there was no indication of 
>> human infections (no increase in influenza cases) the waste water for 
>> these cities were positive.  The high levels of influenza in various 
>> Texas county's waste water has been attributed to dairy farms, but 
>> these samples were from city waste water.  It could still be due to 
>> milk products in the waste water, but it might also mean that there 
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