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From: RonO <rokimoto557@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: California Dairy herds positive for the dairy virus
Date: Sat, 14 Sep 2024 20:27:20 -0500
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On 9/14/2024 6:12 PM, x wrote:
> On 9/14/24 15:23, RonO wrote:
>> On 9/12/2024 11:59 AM, RonO wrote:
>>> On 9/11/2024 12:05 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>> On 9/8/2024 6:55 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>> On 9/7/2024 2:17 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>> On 9/6/2024 5:34 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>>> On 9/4/2024 8:23 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>>>> 3 herds in California central valley have been found to be 
>>>>>>>> positive for the dairy virus.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> https://www.statnews.com/2024/08/29/california-nations-largest- 
>>>>>>>> milk- producer-discloses-possible-bird-flu-outbreaks-in-three- 
>>>>>>>> dairy-cow- herds/
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> They claim that California workers are "usually" dedicated to 
>>>>>>>> just one herd so do not pick up shifts at nearby poultry farms, 
>>>>>>>> but months ago (before I retired in May) I noted that California 
>>>>>>>> had high levels of influenza virus in the waste water around the 
>>>>>>>> bay area.  At that time they had estimated that the virus first 
>>>>>>>> infected cattle Sept or Oct 2023, and they hadn't yet found 
>>>>>>>> viral sequence from herds infected that early in Texas.  When I 
>>>>>>>> looked into the avian influenza cases the Dairy virus was most 
>>>>>>>> similar to one isolated from a Peregrine falcon in California. 
>>>>>>>> California had high levels of influenza virus in their waste 
>>>>>>>> water (associated with infected herds in Texas and Michigan) and 
>>>>>>>> Commercial poultry farms started to go down in the central 
>>>>>>>> valley in Oct 2023 (the flocks get infected by the dairy 
>>>>>>>> workers).  A number of flocks went down within a few months 
>>>>>>>> working their way up North and around the bay area.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I contacted a person at the Avian disease ARS station in 
>>>>>>>> Georgia, and tried to get the name of the person that would have 
>>>>>>>> the sequence data of the California samples (they had not been 
>>>>>>>> included in any of the dairy virus studies) but I was told that 
>>>>>>>> the USDA did not give out that information.  I told the guy that 
>>>>>>>> they needed to check out those samples, but his comment was that 
>>>>>>>> they were busy.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> My prediction is that when they sequence the central valley 
>>>>>>>> virus they could identify the region where the initial dairy 
>>>>>>>> infection occurred and it spread from California to Texas.  The 
>>>>>>>> virus spread rapidly out of Texas, but it probably came from 
>>>>>>>> somewhere else.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The CDC and USDA would have identified many more states with 
>>>>>>>> infected herds by now if they had acted on the waste water data 
>>>>>>>> and the FDA identification of states with virus positive dairy 
>>>>>>>> products.  The Dairy workers are not being protected from being 
>>>>>>>> infected in states that refuse to identify their infected herds.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/person-infected-bird- 
>>>>>>> flu- missouri-no-contact-animals-know-rcna170010
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> There has been a case of H5N1 in a human in Missouri, but this 
>>>>>>> person did not have contact with poultry or dairy cattle.  My 
>>>>>>> guess is that it is person to person transmission.  Missouri is 
>>>>>>> one of the states that has not verified any positive dairy herds 
>>>>>>> (no one has been looking), but Kansas and Oklahoma have positive 
>>>>>>> dairy herds. They have known that it was likely human 
>>>>>>> transmission into Kansas and North Dakota from Texas because 
>>>>>>> neither states got cattle from Texas, but both states got the 
>>>>>>> virus from Texas. Human to human transmission has probably been 
>>>>>>> going on for some time, but they never started contact tracing to 
>>>>>>> identify possibly infected herds nor to determine how the virus 
>>>>>>> was transmitted to the herds and poultry flocks that have been 
>>>>>>> infected.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The virus is H5, but hasn't been confirmed to be the dairy virus. 
>>>>>> The article notes that Missouri hasn't claimed to have positive 
>>>>>> herds at this time, but commercial poultry flocks have gone down 
>>>>>> and that usually happens when the dairies are infected and dairy 
>>>>>> workers take it to the poultry farms.  Previous human cases had 
>>>>>> mild symptoms, but this person was hospitalized.  The USDA and CDC 
>>>>>> are still not doing anything to identify all the infected herds in 
>>>>>> states like Missouri, so nothing much has been done to minimize 
>>>>>> the exposure of dairy workers.  My guess is that an infected dairy 
>>>>>> worker infected this patient, and it is a case of human to human 
>>>>>> transmission.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> As stupid as it may be the CDC response to the latest human 
>>>>> infection without contact with animals is worse than can be 
>>>>> imagined.  They did not send a team to investigate, and have not 
>>>>> started contact tracing and testing of close contacts.  It seems 
>>>>> crazy when you think that the person was hospitalized, and this is 
>>>>> obviously a serious case of infection.  What they do not want is 
>>>>> the 50% human mortality associated with the H5N1 virus to become a 
>>>>> reality for the dairy virus.  The CDC continues to do nothing but 
>>>>> monitor the disease in two states, which is just nuts.  They are 
>>>>> actually waiting for it to become a noticeable problem somewhere 
>>>>> else before starting to do anything in other states.
>>>>>
>>>>> https://www.statnews.com/2024/09/08/missouri-h5-bird-flu-case- 
>>>>> questions- cat-raw-milk/
>>>>>
>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>
>>>>> R
>>>>>
>>>> https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-09-missouri-resident-bird-flu- 
>>>> livestock.html
>>>>
>>>> This ariticle seems to be trying to downplay the possibility of 
>>>> human to human transmission.  The Texas antibody testing of dairy 
>>>> workers have already come out with evidence for human to human 
>>>> transmission because one of the workers positive for H5 antibodies 
>>>> did not have contact with cattle, and only had contact with other 
>>>> dairy workers. There was also the case of the indoor cat in Colorado 
>>>> that was probably infected by humans.  The states that did not get 
>>>> cattle from affected states, but still got the dairy virus were 
>>>> likely infected by human dairy workers migrating to those states.  
>>>> Kansas got infected from Texas, and then Dakota got infected with 
>>>> the strain in Kansas, and Kansas did not get cattle from Texas, and 
>>>> South Dakota did not get cattle from Kansas.  The CDC has known this 
>>>> since about the beginning of detecting the infections in April, but 
>>>> they never started human contact tracing to determine how all the 
>>>> dairy herds and poultry flocks were being infected.
>>>>
>>>> Humans have been transmitting the virus since the start of this 
>>>> fiasco. Humans could have brought the virus into Texas.  The Texas 
>>>> Dairy worker that was the first infection had a virus that had 
>>>> branched off earlier than the strain that infected Texas.  They 
>>>> never got the name of that dairy worker, so they couldn't ask him 
>>>> where he could have been infected.  He could have been infected in 
>>>> the state that was the origin of the dairy infection.  One of his 
>>>> fellow dairy workers could have been infected in that same state, 
>>>> but brought in the Texas strain (one with more substitutions than 
>>>> the strain that infected the first dairy worker).
>>>>
>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>
>>>
>>> New Texas Waste water data indicates that H5N1 seems to have started 
>>> to be detected in 10 Texas cities monitored in March 2024 (when the 
>>> Texas Dairy infections were first detected) but were not found in 
>>> samples taken earlier in the year.  This study used a detection 
>>> method that uses a probe to pull out the influenza RNA from the waste 
>>> water, so they can get the sequence of RNA and determine what strain 
>>> of influenza they are picking up.  Even though there was no 
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