Path: ...!weretis.net!feeder8.news.weretis.net!news.szaf.org!nntp-feed.chiark.greenend.org.uk!ewrotcd!news.eyrie.org!beagle.ediacara.org!.POSTED.beagle.ediacara.org!not-for-mail From: RonO Newsgroups: talk.origins Subject: Re: California Dairy herds positive for the dairy virus Date: Mon, 16 Sep 2024 20:30:40 -0500 Organization: A noiseless patient Spider Lines: 297 Sender: to%beagle.ediacara.org Approved: moderator@beagle.ediacara.org Message-ID: References: Reply-To: rokimoto557@gmail.com MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Injection-Info: beagle.ediacara.org; posting-host="beagle.ediacara.org:3.132.105.89"; logging-data="20624"; mail-complaints-to="usenet@beagle.ediacara.org" User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird To: talk-origins@moderators.isc.org Cancel-Lock: sha1:AQp94nZcqhXHfstoazQLuXNsKMo= Return-Path: X-Original-To: talk-origins@ediacara.org Delivered-To: talk-origins@ediacara.org id 7F47022986F; Mon, 16 Sep 2024 21:30:33 -0400 (EDT) by beagle.ediacara.org (Postfix) with ESMTP id 55D9E22978C for ; Mon, 16 Sep 2024 21:30:31 -0400 (EDT) id B311F5DC75; Tue, 17 Sep 2024 01:30:46 +0000 (UTC) Delivered-To: talk-origins@moderators.isc.org by mod-relay-1.kamens.us (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 723765DC6C for ; Tue, 17 Sep 2024 01:30:46 +0000 (UTC) (using TLSv1.3 with cipher TLS_AES_256_GCM_SHA384 (256/256 bits) key-exchange X25519 server-signature ECDSA (P-256) server-digest SHA256) (No client certificate requested) by smtp.eternal-september.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 9A34E5F869 for ; Tue, 17 Sep 2024 01:30:41 +0000 (UTC) Authentication-Results: name/9A34E5F869; dmarc=fail (p=none dis=none) header.from=gmail.com id 2C66FDC01A9; Tue, 17 Sep 2024 03:30:41 +0200 (CEST) X-Injection-Date: Tue, 17 Sep 2024 03:30:41 +0200 (CEST) X-Auth-Sender: U2FsdGVkX1+UE1PxnTqZO0EF/XuUtfR4rWDMCVG4z14= Content-Language: en-US In-Reply-To: FORGED_GMAIL_RCVD,FORGED_MUA_MOZILLA,FREEMAIL_FORGED_FROMDOMAIN, FREEMAIL_FROM,FREEMAIL_REPLYTO_END_DIGIT,HEADER_FROM_DIFFERENT_DOMAINS, NML_ADSP_CUSTOM_MED,RCVD_IN_VALIDITY_RPBL_BLOCKED, RCVD_IN_VALIDITY_SAFE_BLOCKED,SPF_HELO_NONE,SPF_PASS,URIBL_BLOCKED autolearn=no autolearn_force=no version=3.4.6 smtp.eternal-september.org Bytes: 19116 On 9/16/2024 8:18 PM, RonO wrote: > On 9/14/2024 8:27 PM, RonO wrote: >> On 9/14/2024 6:12 PM, x wrote: >>> On 9/14/24 15:23, RonO wrote: >>>> On 9/12/2024 11:59 AM, RonO wrote: >>>>> On 9/11/2024 12:05 PM, RonO wrote: >>>>>> On 9/8/2024 6:55 PM, RonO wrote: >>>>>>> On 9/7/2024 2:17 PM, RonO wrote: >>>>>>>> On 9/6/2024 5:34 PM, RonO wrote: >>>>>>>>> On 9/4/2024 8:23 PM, RonO wrote: >>>>>>>>>> 3 herds in California central valley have been found to be >>>>>>>>>> positive for the dairy virus. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> https://www.statnews.com/2024/08/29/california-nations- >>>>>>>>>> largest- milk- producer-discloses-possible-bird-flu-outbreaks- >>>>>>>>>> in-three- dairy-cow- herds/ >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> They claim that California workers are "usually" dedicated to >>>>>>>>>> just one herd so do not pick up shifts at nearby poultry >>>>>>>>>> farms, but months ago (before I retired in May) I noted that >>>>>>>>>> California had high levels of influenza virus in the waste >>>>>>>>>> water around the bay area.  At that time they had estimated >>>>>>>>>> that the virus first infected cattle Sept or Oct 2023, and >>>>>>>>>> they hadn't yet found viral sequence from herds infected that >>>>>>>>>> early in Texas.  When I looked into the avian influenza cases >>>>>>>>>> the Dairy virus was most similar to one isolated from a >>>>>>>>>> Peregrine falcon in California. California had high levels of >>>>>>>>>> influenza virus in their waste water (associated with infected >>>>>>>>>> herds in Texas and Michigan) and Commercial poultry farms >>>>>>>>>> started to go down in the central valley in Oct 2023 (the >>>>>>>>>> flocks get infected by the dairy workers).  A number of flocks >>>>>>>>>> went down within a few months working their way up North and >>>>>>>>>> around the bay area. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> I contacted a person at the Avian disease ARS station in >>>>>>>>>> Georgia, and tried to get the name of the person that would >>>>>>>>>> have the sequence data of the California samples (they had not >>>>>>>>>> been included in any of the dairy virus studies) but I was >>>>>>>>>> told that the USDA did not give out that information.  I told >>>>>>>>>> the guy that they needed to check out those samples, but his >>>>>>>>>> comment was that they were busy. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> My prediction is that when they sequence the central valley >>>>>>>>>> virus they could identify the region where the initial dairy >>>>>>>>>> infection occurred and it spread from California to Texas. >>>>>>>>>> The virus spread rapidly out of Texas, but it probably came >>>>>>>>>> from somewhere else. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> The CDC and USDA would have identified many more states with >>>>>>>>>> infected herds by now if they had acted on the waste water >>>>>>>>>> data and the FDA identification of states with virus positive >>>>>>>>>> dairy products.  The Dairy workers are not being protected >>>>>>>>>> from being infected in states that refuse to identify their >>>>>>>>>> infected herds. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Ron Okimoto >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/person-infected- >>>>>>>>> bird- flu- missouri-no-contact-animals-know-rcna170010 >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> There has been a case of H5N1 in a human in Missouri, but this >>>>>>>>> person did not have contact with poultry or dairy cattle.  My >>>>>>>>> guess is that it is person to person transmission.  Missouri is >>>>>>>>> one of the states that has not verified any positive dairy >>>>>>>>> herds (no one has been looking), but Kansas and Oklahoma have >>>>>>>>> positive dairy herds. They have known that it was likely human >>>>>>>>> transmission into Kansas and North Dakota from Texas because >>>>>>>>> neither states got cattle from Texas, but both states got the >>>>>>>>> virus from Texas. Human to human transmission has probably been >>>>>>>>> going on for some time, but they never started contact tracing >>>>>>>>> to identify possibly infected herds nor to determine how the >>>>>>>>> virus was transmitted to the herds and poultry flocks that have >>>>>>>>> been infected. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Ron Okimoto >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> The virus is H5, but hasn't been confirmed to be the dairy >>>>>>>> virus. The article notes that Missouri hasn't claimed to have >>>>>>>> positive herds at this time, but commercial poultry flocks have >>>>>>>> gone down and that usually happens when the dairies are infected >>>>>>>> and dairy workers take it to the poultry farms.  Previous human >>>>>>>> cases had mild symptoms, but this person was hospitalized.  The >>>>>>>> USDA and CDC are still not doing anything to identify all the >>>>>>>> infected herds in states like Missouri, so nothing much has been >>>>>>>> done to minimize the exposure of dairy workers.  My guess is >>>>>>>> that an infected dairy worker infected this patient, and it is a >>>>>>>> case of human to human transmission. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Ron Okimoto >>>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> As stupid as it may be the CDC response to the latest human >>>>>>> infection without contact with animals is worse than can be >>>>>>> imagined.  They did not send a team to investigate, and have not >>>>>>> started contact tracing and testing of close contacts.  It seems >>>>>>> crazy when you think that the person was hospitalized, and this >>>>>>> is obviously a serious case of infection.  What they do not want >>>>>>> is the 50% human mortality associated with the H5N1 virus to >>>>>>> become a reality for the dairy virus.  The CDC continues to do >>>>>>> nothing but monitor the disease in two states, which is just >>>>>>> nuts.  They are actually waiting for it to become a noticeable >>>>>>> problem somewhere else before starting to do anything in other >>>>>>> states. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> https://www.statnews.com/2024/09/08/missouri-h5-bird-flu-case- >>>>>>> questions- cat-raw-milk/ >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Ron Okimoto >>>>>>> >>>>>>> R >>>>>>> >>>>>> https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-09-missouri-resident-bird-flu- >>>>>> livestock.html >>>>>> >>>>>> This ariticle seems to be trying to downplay the possibility of >>>>>> human to human transmission.  The Texas antibody testing of dairy >>>>>> workers have already come out with evidence for human to human >>>>>> transmission because one of the workers positive for H5 antibodies >>>>>> did not have contact with cattle, and only had contact with other >>>>>> dairy workers. There was also the case of the indoor cat in >>>>>> Colorado that was probably infected by humans.  The states that >>>>>> did not get cattle from affected states, but still got the dairy >>>>>> virus were likely infected by human dairy workers migrating to >>>>>> those states. Kansas got infected from Texas, and then Dakota got >>>>>> infected with the strain in Kansas, and Kansas did not get cattle >>>>>> from Texas, and South Dakota did not get cattle from Kansas.  The >>>>>> CDC has known this since about the beginning of detecting the >>>>>> infections in April, but they never started human contact tracing >>>>>> to determine how all the dairy herds and poultry flocks were being >>>>>> infected. >>>>>> >>>>>> Humans have been transmitting the virus since the start of this >>>>>> fiasco. Humans could have brought the virus into Texas.  The Texas >>>>>> Dairy worker that was the first infection had a virus that had >>>>>> branched off earlier than the strain that infected Texas.  They >>>>>> never got the name of that dairy worker, so they couldn't ask him >>>>>> where he could have been infected.  He could have been infected in >>>>>> the state that was the origin of the dairy infection.  One of his >>>>>> fellow dairy workers could have been infected in that same state, >>>>>> but brought in the Texas strain (one with more substitutions than >>>>>> the strain that infected the first dairy worker). >>>>>> >>>>>> Ron Okimoto >>>>>> >>>>> ========== REMAINDER OF ARTICLE TRUNCATED ==========