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From: RonO <rokimoto@cox.net>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: OT? Dairy flu
Date: Fri, 7 Jun 2024 08:53:30 -0500
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On 6/6/2024 8:51 AM, RonO wrote:
> On 6/4/2024 3:17 PM, RonO wrote:
>> On 6/4/2024 8:57 AM, RonO wrote:
>>> On 6/3/2024 3:49 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>> On 6/2/2024 9:26 AM, RonO wrote:
>>>>> On 5/27/2024 9:03 AM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>> On 5/27/2024 1:45 AM, vallor wrote:
>>>>>>> On Sat, 25 May 2024 12:49:10 -0500, RonO <rokimoto@cox.net> wrote in
>>>>>>> <v2t8an$2vo1m$1@dont-email.me>:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On 5/25/2024 9:49 AM, *Hemidactylus* wrote:
>>>>>>>>> RonO <rokimoto@cox.net> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> The CDC issued an alert yesterday that they were initiating 
>>>>>>>>>> planning
>>>>>>>>>> for "possiblity of increased risk to human health" from the 
>>>>>>>>>> dairy flu.
>>>>>>>>>>   The CDC has screwed up by the numbers in terms of evolution 
>>>>>>>>>> of the
>>>>>>>>>> virus and the threat to humans.  They knew from the first 
>>>>>>>>>> detections
>>>>>>>>>> that humans were being infected, but they didn't initiate 
>>>>>>>>>> testing and
>>>>>>>>>> contact tracing.  Humans had already likely spread the virus 
>>>>>>>>>> to other
>>>>>>>>>> dairy herds for some time.  They knew from the first sequencing
>>>>>>>>>> results that many states did not get cattle but ended up with the
>>>>>>>>>> virus.  People were the obvious vector for spread of the virus 
>>>>>>>>>> between
>>>>>>>>>> herds.  We have known for years that the flu virus only 
>>>>>>>>>> survives for
>>>>>>>>>> around 5 hours on the skin and maybe up to 12 hours on 
>>>>>>>>>> clothing, but
>>>>>>>>>> we also know that you have to be infected within a few minutes of
>>>>>>>>>> getting it on your skin or clothing because the virus doesn't 
>>>>>>>>>> seem to
>>>>>>>>>> be infective after a few minutes on those surfaces.  The virus
>>>>>>>>>> survives the longest on hard surfaces and is infective off those
>>>>>>>>>> surfaces for up to 24 hours, but the poultry farms that were 
>>>>>>>>>> infected
>>>>>>>>>> by the dairy virus in the same counties as the infected herds 
>>>>>>>>>> would
>>>>>>>>>> have had little reason to exchange equipment.  Infected humans 
>>>>>>>>>> likely
>>>>>>>>>> took the virus to those poultry farms.  The two known human 
>>>>>>>>>> cases were
>>>>>>>>>> shedding infective virus.  The CDC has understood this from 
>>>>>>>>>> the very
>>>>>>>>>> beginning of their involvement, but they failed to act on it. 
>>>>>>>>>> They
>>>>>>>>>> claim that it isn't their policy to force testing onto farm 
>>>>>>>>>> workers,
>>>>>>>>>> so they never checked to determine the rate that humans were 
>>>>>>>>>> being
>>>>>>>>>> infected even though there was ancedotal evidence of other dairy
>>>>>>>>>> workers with red eye (eye infection).  The crazy thing is 
>>>>>>>>>> these red
>>>>>>>>>> eye individuals can infect other humans.  They got infected, 
>>>>>>>>>> and they
>>>>>>>>>> are shedding virus.  If the CDC had started testing and contact
>>>>>>>>>> tracing they would already know how the other herds and 
>>>>>>>>>> poultry flocks
>>>>>>>>>> got infected.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> What they needed to do was identify all the infected herds and
>>>>>>>>>> quarantine the herds and farm workers, but the USDA and CDC 
>>>>>>>>>> were not
>>>>>>>>>> interested in contact tracing and tracking down additional cases.
>>>>>>>>>> They both claimed to rely on farm reporting.  This is stupid. 
>>>>>>>>>> The FDA
>>>>>>>>>> tested milk products from 38 states.  They tested products 
>>>>>>>>>> that came
>>>>>>>>>> from milk processing plants in those states and found 17 
>>>>>>>>>> states with
>>>>>>>>>> H5N1 positive milk samples, but would not release the names of 
>>>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>>>> states because they claimed to only be worried about the 
>>>>>>>>>> safety of the
>>>>>>>>>> food chain. Pasteurization was found to kill the virus.  When 
>>>>>>>>>> the FDA
>>>>>>>>>> finally did release the names of the states a couple weeks 
>>>>>>>>>> later it
>>>>>>>>>> was found that 9 new states not yet identified as having positive
>>>>>>>>>> dairy herds had produced milk products that were positive for the
>>>>>>>>>> dairy virus.  3 of the states already known to have infected 
>>>>>>>>>> herds
>>>>>>>>>> were not found to have positive dairy products, so they likely 
>>>>>>>>>> missed
>>>>>>>>>> some positive states of the 38 tested.  The CDC could have 
>>>>>>>>>> predicted
>>>>>>>>>> the results because they started to monitor waste water and 
>>>>>>>>>> most of
>>>>>>>>>> the new states that were found to have positive dairy products 
>>>>>>>>>> had
>>>>>>>>>> also shown flu virus in the waste water.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> The CDC knows that the longer that they allow humans to be 
>>>>>>>>>> infected by
>>>>>>>>>> the dairy virus the more likely that it will evolve into a 
>>>>>>>>>> strain that
>>>>>>>>>> will start killing people.  Currently the infected humans only 
>>>>>>>>>> have
>>>>>>>>>> mild eye irritation (the virus infects mammary glands and 
>>>>>>>>>> apparently
>>>>>>>>>> tear ducts).  The initial sequencing results indicated that 
>>>>>>>>>> there were
>>>>>>>>>> already variants of the virus with mutations that would make 
>>>>>>>>>> them more
>>>>>>>>>> infective in mammals, but they were minor variants at the time 
>>>>>>>>>> of the
>>>>>>>>>> sample collections.  As the virus adapts to cattle these 
>>>>>>>>>> variants are
>>>>>>>>>> probably the most likely to be selected for.  The virus is 
>>>>>>>>>> infecting a
>>>>>>>>>> lot more herds than they are tracking, and it is evolving in 
>>>>>>>>>> all those
>>>>>>>>>> herds and the dairy workers are exposed to that evolving 
>>>>>>>>>> virus.  I
>>>>>>>>>> should note that the cats that got infected by the dairy virus 
>>>>>>>>>> had
>>>>>>>>>> high mortality because the virus infected their brains.  
>>>>>>>>>> Influenza
>>>>>>>>>> virus is normally a respiratory virus, but if this virus 
>>>>>>>>>> adapted to
>>>>>>>>>> infecting human brains that would be a real tragedy.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> So instead of trying to limit the current spread, the CDC has 
>>>>>>>>>> decided
>>>>>>>>>> to prepare for human transmission of the next pandemic virus.  It
>>>>>>>>>> doesn't sound like they are preparing correctly because you 
>>>>>>>>>> want to
>>>>>>>>>> limit the first human cases with severe symptoms.  In order to 
>>>>>>>>>> do that
>>>>>>>>>> you have to identify them as soon as you can.  The humans 
>>>>>>>>>> currently
>>>>>>>>>> being infected are dairy workers, so you need to identify all the
>>>>>>>>>> infected herds and monitor the dairy workers and their human 
>>>>>>>>>> contacts.
>>>>>>>>>>   The next pandemic could have already started in one of the 
>>>>>>>>>> states
>>>>>>>>>> with unidentified infected dairy herds.  They need to track 
>>>>>>>>>> down the
>>>>>>>>>> dairies that contributed to the milk of the processing plants 
>>>>>>>>>> that
>>>>>>>>>> produced positive milk samples.  They need to go to the 
>>>>>>>>>> counties with
>>>>>>>>>> positive waste water (these include multiple sites in 
>>>>>>>>>> California that
>>>>>>>>>> has not yet claimed to have positive herds and several of 
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