Path: ...!weretis.net!feeder8.news.weretis.net!news.szaf.org!nntp-feed.chiark.greenend.org.uk!ewrotcd!news.eyrie.org!beagle.ediacara.org!.POSTED.beagle.ediacara.org!not-for-mail From: RonO Newsgroups: talk.origins Subject: Re: OT? Dairy flu Date: Thu, 6 Jun 2024 08:51:45 -0500 Organization: A noiseless patient Spider Lines: 459 Sender: to%beagle.ediacara.org Approved: moderator@beagle.ediacara.org Message-ID: References: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Injection-Info: beagle.ediacara.org; posting-host="beagle.ediacara.org:3.132.105.89"; logging-data="74056"; mail-complaints-to="usenet@beagle.ediacara.org" User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird To: talk-origins@moderators.isc.org Cancel-Lock: sha1:f2nc6Hunx8WCMTIzhu4KdqkxyOA= Return-Path: X-Original-To: talk-origins@ediacara.org Delivered-To: talk-origins@ediacara.org id 952EB229872; Thu, 06 Jun 2024 09:51:44 -0400 (EDT) by beagle.ediacara.org (Postfix) with ESMTP id 70E9C22986E for ; Thu, 06 Jun 2024 09:51:42 -0400 (EDT) id 4BB767D121; Thu, 6 Jun 2024 13:51:48 +0000 (UTC) Delivered-To: talk-origins@moderators.isc.org by mod-relay.zaccari.net (Postfix) with ESMTP id 124627D11E for ; Thu, 6 Jun 2024 13:51:48 +0000 (UTC) id 2E879DC01A9; Thu, 6 Jun 2024 15:51:47 +0200 (CEST) X-Injection-Date: Thu, 06 Jun 2024 15:51:47 +0200 (CEST) In-Reply-To: X-Auth-Sender: U2FsdGVkX1/mv01Vb8jLTXTvotWGOleZOOsYMevr9A4= Content-Language: en-US Bytes: 26457 On 6/4/2024 3:17 PM, RonO wrote: > On 6/4/2024 8:57 AM, RonO wrote: >> On 6/3/2024 3:49 PM, RonO wrote: >>> On 6/2/2024 9:26 AM, RonO wrote: >>>> On 5/27/2024 9:03 AM, RonO wrote: >>>>> On 5/27/2024 1:45 AM, vallor wrote: >>>>>> On Sat, 25 May 2024 12:49:10 -0500, RonO wrote in >>>>>> : >>>>>> >>>>>>> On 5/25/2024 9:49 AM, *Hemidactylus* wrote: >>>>>>>> RonO wrote: >>>>>>>>> The CDC issued an alert yesterday that they were initiating >>>>>>>>> planning >>>>>>>>> for "possiblity of increased risk to human health" from the >>>>>>>>> dairy flu. >>>>>>>>>   The CDC has screwed up by the numbers in terms of evolution >>>>>>>>> of the >>>>>>>>> virus and the threat to humans.  They knew from the first >>>>>>>>> detections >>>>>>>>> that humans were being infected, but they didn't initiate >>>>>>>>> testing and >>>>>>>>> contact tracing.  Humans had already likely spread the virus to >>>>>>>>> other >>>>>>>>> dairy herds for some time.  They knew from the first sequencing >>>>>>>>> results that many states did not get cattle but ended up with the >>>>>>>>> virus.  People were the obvious vector for spread of the virus >>>>>>>>> between >>>>>>>>> herds.  We have known for years that the flu virus only >>>>>>>>> survives for >>>>>>>>> around 5 hours on the skin and maybe up to 12 hours on >>>>>>>>> clothing, but >>>>>>>>> we also know that you have to be infected within a few minutes of >>>>>>>>> getting it on your skin or clothing because the virus doesn't >>>>>>>>> seem to >>>>>>>>> be infective after a few minutes on those surfaces.  The virus >>>>>>>>> survives the longest on hard surfaces and is infective off those >>>>>>>>> surfaces for up to 24 hours, but the poultry farms that were >>>>>>>>> infected >>>>>>>>> by the dairy virus in the same counties as the infected herds >>>>>>>>> would >>>>>>>>> have had little reason to exchange equipment.  Infected humans >>>>>>>>> likely >>>>>>>>> took the virus to those poultry farms.  The two known human >>>>>>>>> cases were >>>>>>>>> shedding infective virus.  The CDC has understood this from the >>>>>>>>> very >>>>>>>>> beginning of their involvement, but they failed to act on it. >>>>>>>>> They >>>>>>>>> claim that it isn't their policy to force testing onto farm >>>>>>>>> workers, >>>>>>>>> so they never checked to determine the rate that humans were being >>>>>>>>> infected even though there was ancedotal evidence of other dairy >>>>>>>>> workers with red eye (eye infection).  The crazy thing is these >>>>>>>>> red >>>>>>>>> eye individuals can infect other humans.  They got infected, >>>>>>>>> and they >>>>>>>>> are shedding virus.  If the CDC had started testing and contact >>>>>>>>> tracing they would already know how the other herds and poultry >>>>>>>>> flocks >>>>>>>>> got infected. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> What they needed to do was identify all the infected herds and >>>>>>>>> quarantine the herds and farm workers, but the USDA and CDC >>>>>>>>> were not >>>>>>>>> interested in contact tracing and tracking down additional cases. >>>>>>>>> They both claimed to rely on farm reporting.  This is stupid. >>>>>>>>> The FDA >>>>>>>>> tested milk products from 38 states.  They tested products that >>>>>>>>> came >>>>>>>>> from milk processing plants in those states and found 17 states >>>>>>>>> with >>>>>>>>> H5N1 positive milk samples, but would not release the names of the >>>>>>>>> states because they claimed to only be worried about the safety >>>>>>>>> of the >>>>>>>>> food chain. Pasteurization was found to kill the virus.  When >>>>>>>>> the FDA >>>>>>>>> finally did release the names of the states a couple weeks >>>>>>>>> later it >>>>>>>>> was found that 9 new states not yet identified as having positive >>>>>>>>> dairy herds had produced milk products that were positive for the >>>>>>>>> dairy virus.  3 of the states already known to have infected herds >>>>>>>>> were not found to have positive dairy products, so they likely >>>>>>>>> missed >>>>>>>>> some positive states of the 38 tested.  The CDC could have >>>>>>>>> predicted >>>>>>>>> the results because they started to monitor waste water and >>>>>>>>> most of >>>>>>>>> the new states that were found to have positive dairy products had >>>>>>>>> also shown flu virus in the waste water. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> The CDC knows that the longer that they allow humans to be >>>>>>>>> infected by >>>>>>>>> the dairy virus the more likely that it will evolve into a >>>>>>>>> strain that >>>>>>>>> will start killing people.  Currently the infected humans only >>>>>>>>> have >>>>>>>>> mild eye irritation (the virus infects mammary glands and >>>>>>>>> apparently >>>>>>>>> tear ducts).  The initial sequencing results indicated that >>>>>>>>> there were >>>>>>>>> already variants of the virus with mutations that would make >>>>>>>>> them more >>>>>>>>> infective in mammals, but they were minor variants at the time >>>>>>>>> of the >>>>>>>>> sample collections.  As the virus adapts to cattle these >>>>>>>>> variants are >>>>>>>>> probably the most likely to be selected for.  The virus is >>>>>>>>> infecting a >>>>>>>>> lot more herds than they are tracking, and it is evolving in >>>>>>>>> all those >>>>>>>>> herds and the dairy workers are exposed to that evolving virus.  I >>>>>>>>> should note that the cats that got infected by the dairy virus had >>>>>>>>> high mortality because the virus infected their brains.  Influenza >>>>>>>>> virus is normally a respiratory virus, but if this virus >>>>>>>>> adapted to >>>>>>>>> infecting human brains that would be a real tragedy. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> So instead of trying to limit the current spread, the CDC has >>>>>>>>> decided >>>>>>>>> to prepare for human transmission of the next pandemic virus.  It >>>>>>>>> doesn't sound like they are preparing correctly because you >>>>>>>>> want to >>>>>>>>> limit the first human cases with severe symptoms.  In order to >>>>>>>>> do that >>>>>>>>> you have to identify them as soon as you can.  The humans >>>>>>>>> currently >>>>>>>>> being infected are dairy workers, so you need to identify all the >>>>>>>>> infected herds and monitor the dairy workers and their human >>>>>>>>> contacts. >>>>>>>>>   The next pandemic could have already started in one of the >>>>>>>>> states >>>>>>>>> with unidentified infected dairy herds.  They need to track >>>>>>>>> down the >>>>>>>>> dairies that contributed to the milk of the processing plants that >>>>>>>>> produced positive milk samples.  They need to go to the >>>>>>>>> counties with >>>>>>>>> positive waste water (these include multiple sites in >>>>>>>>> California that >>>>>>>>> has not yet claimed to have positive herds and several of these >>>>>>>>> sites >>>>>>>>> are in rural areas surrounding the bay area, the CDC nightmare >>>>>>>>> scenario) and identify infected herds.  They need to track the >>>>>>>>> contacts of the dairy workers so that they can identify more >>>>>>>>> infected >>>>>>>>> herds in states that are already known to have infected herds. >>>>>>>>> Once >>>>>>>>> they identify all the possible sources of infection they can >>>>>>>>> monitor >>>>>>>>> those herds and people and then try to keep any virus from >>>>>>>>> spreading >>>>>>>>> and becoming a pandemic. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> My hot and possibly wrong takes are that they are dealing with a >>>>>>>> very >>>>>>>> influential and somewhat litigious industry. Ask Oprah. They are >>>>>>>> also >>>>>>>> dealing with a subset of the population induced with reactance. >>>>>>>> Tell >>>>>>>> them not to drink raw milk and its popularity will rise. They ========== REMAINDER OF ARTICLE TRUNCATED ==========