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From: Mild Shock <janburse@fastmail.fm>
Newsgroups: sci.math
Subject: =?UTF-8?Q?California=e2=80=99s_COVID-19_surpassed_last_summer?=
 =?UTF-8?Q?=e2=80=99s_peak_=28Re:_Whats_the_SIR-Model_of_Brain_Loss=3f_=28Re?=
 =?UTF-8?Q?:_Corona_isn't_over_2024=29=29?=
Date: Mon, 29 Jul 2024 22:52:12 +0200
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Hi,

The intersting thimg about SIR-Models they
can be used to detect an epidemic:

With the help of the SIR model, we can
determine for given initial values ​​I_0,S_0,\beta ,
\gamma whether the course of the disease will
result in an epidemic.
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/SIR-Modell#Mathematische_Behandlung

Maybe we should look at Covid, and not Long-Covid.
But modelling of Long-Covid would be also intersting.

Currently I am reading:

 > California’s COVID-19 test positivity rate has surpassed
last summer’s peak, largely fueled by the FLiRT variants,
particularly KP.3.1.1. The rapid spread of these strains
suggests a likely rise in cases in the weeks ahead.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-07-29/covid-surging-in-california-as-virus-levels-in-sewage-near-two-year-summer-high

Bye

Mild Shock schrieb:
> Hi,
> 
> During the early covid pandemic a macabre pass
> time was to calibrate the SIR-model and try to
> make predictions:
> 
> susceptible-infected-removed model
> https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/SIR-Modell
> 
> But hey, when do you have the chance to work
> with real data! But now with Long-Covid, what
> would we measure? What is the "removed" state
> 
> in Long-Covid. Freed from regular work?
> 
> Bye
> 
> Mild Shock schrieb:
>>
>> Hi,
>>
>> "Long Covid" and "Covid 19" trending on Twitter.
>> They have interresting tips:
>>
>> Reminder: If you recently had covid, the recommen-
>> dation is that you not exercise for at least 6-8
>> weeks--even if your symptoms were mild--to not
>> put more stress on your body, which could lead
>> to Long COVID. Conserve your energy as much as you can.
>> https://twitter.com/milanaldebaran/status/1813363693821812813
>>
>> LoL
>>
>> Bye
>>
>> Mild Shock schrieb:
>>  > Hi,
>>  >
>>  > Forget face masks, it might be the
>>  > beginning of a new experience for the world!
>>  >
>>  > Coronaviruses are oculotropic
>>  > https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7241406/
>>  >
>>  > Bye
>