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From: RonO <rokimoto557@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: California Dairy herds positive for the dairy virus
Date: Sun, 8 Sep 2024 18:55:20 -0500
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On 9/7/2024 2:17 PM, RonO wrote:
> On 9/6/2024 5:34 PM, RonO wrote:
>> On 9/4/2024 8:23 PM, RonO wrote:
>>> 3 herds in California central valley have been found to be positive 
>>> for the dairy virus.
>>>
>>> https://www.statnews.com/2024/08/29/california-nations-largest-milk- 
>>> producer-discloses-possible-bird-flu-outbreaks-in-three-dairy-cow-herds/
>>>
>>> They claim that California workers are "usually" dedicated to just 
>>> one herd so do not pick up shifts at nearby poultry farms, but months 
>>> ago (before I retired in May) I noted that California had high levels 
>>> of influenza virus in the waste water around the bay area.  At that 
>>> time they had estimated that the virus first infected cattle Sept or 
>>> Oct 2023, and they hadn't yet found viral sequence from herds 
>>> infected that early in Texas.  When I looked into the avian influenza 
>>> cases the Dairy virus was most similar to one isolated from a 
>>> Peregrine falcon in California.  California had high levels of 
>>> influenza virus in their waste water (associated with infected herds 
>>> in Texas and Michigan) and Commercial poultry farms started to go 
>>> down in the central valley in Oct 2023 (the flocks get infected by 
>>> the dairy workers).  A number of flocks went down within a few months 
>>> working their way up North and around the bay area.
>>>
>>> I contacted a person at the Avian disease ARS station in Georgia, and 
>>> tried to get the name of the person that would have the sequence data 
>>> of the California samples (they had not been included in any of the 
>>> dairy virus studies) but I was told that the USDA did not give out 
>>> that information.  I told the guy that they needed to check out those 
>>> samples, but his comment was that they were busy.
>>>
>>> My prediction is that when they sequence the central valley virus 
>>> they could identify the region where the initial dairy infection 
>>> occurred and it spread from California to Texas.  The virus spread 
>>> rapidly out of Texas, but it probably came from somewhere else.
>>>
>>> The CDC and USDA would have identified many more states with infected 
>>> herds by now if they had acted on the waste water data and the FDA 
>>> identification of states with virus positive dairy products.  The 
>>> Dairy workers are not being protected from being infected in states 
>>> that refuse to identify their infected herds.
>>>
>>> Ron Okimoto
>>
>> https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/person-infected-bird-flu- 
>> missouri-no-contact-animals-know-rcna170010
>>
>> There has been a case of H5N1 in a human in Missouri, but this person 
>> did not have contact with poultry or dairy cattle.  My guess is that 
>> it is person to person transmission.  Missouri is one of the states 
>> that has not verified any positive dairy herds (no one has been 
>> looking), but Kansas and Oklahoma have positive dairy herds.  They 
>> have known that it was likely human transmission into Kansas and North 
>> Dakota from Texas because neither states got cattle from Texas, but 
>> both states got the virus from Texas.  Human to human transmission has 
>> probably been going on for some time, but they never started contact 
>> tracing to identify possibly infected herds nor to determine how the 
>> virus was transmitted to the herds and poultry flocks that have been 
>> infected.
>>
>> Ron Okimoto
>>>
>>
> 
> The virus is H5, but hasn't been confirmed to be the dairy virus.  The 
> article notes that Missouri hasn't claimed to have positive herds at 
> this time, but commercial poultry flocks have gone down and that usually 
> happens when the dairies are infected and dairy workers take it to the 
> poultry farms.  Previous human cases had mild symptoms, but this person 
> was hospitalized.  The USDA and CDC are still not doing anything to 
> identify all the infected herds in states like Missouri, so nothing much 
> has been done to minimize the exposure of dairy workers.  My guess is 
> that an infected dairy worker infected this patient, and it is a case of 
> human to human transmission.
> 
> Ron Okimoto
> 

As stupid as it may be the CDC response to the latest human infection 
without contact with animals is worse than can be imagined.  They did 
not send a team to investigate, and have not started contact tracing and 
testing of close contacts.  It seems crazy when you think that the 
person was hospitalized, and this is obviously a serious case of 
infection.  What they do not want is the 50% human mortality associated 
with the H5N1 virus to become a reality for the dairy virus.  The CDC 
continues to do nothing but monitor the disease in two states, which is 
just nuts.  They are actually waiting for it to become a noticeable 
problem somewhere else before starting to do anything in other states.

https://www.statnews.com/2024/09/08/missouri-h5-bird-flu-case-questions-cat-raw-milk/

Ron Okimoto

R