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From: jillery <69jpil69@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: =?utf-8?Q?OoL_=E2=80=93_out_at_first_?=
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Date: Mon, 09 Dec 2024 04:11:47 -0500
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On Mon, 9 Dec 2024 16:54:56 +1100, MarkE <me22over7@gmail.com> wrote:

>We need prebiotic formation and supply of nucleotides for RNA world, and=
=20
>other models at some stage. The scope of the problem of the supply of=20
>these precursors is prone to underestimation.
>
>Nucleotides are chemically challenging in terms of the prebiotic=20
>synthesis and assembly of their three constituents of nitrogenous base,=20
>sugar and phosphate group.
>
>Harder again are the requirements for supply of these building blocks.=20
>You need (eventually) all canonical bases in sufficient concentration,=20
>purity, chirality, activation, distribution, location, etc.
>
>But the greatest problem I think is this: time. How long must you=20
>maintain the supply described above in order to assemble a=20
>self-replicating RNA strand? And even if you managed that, how much more=
=20
>time is needed before reaching a protocell capable of self-synthesising=20
>nucleotides? One million years? One hundred million years?
>
>A hypothised little warm pond with wetting/drying cycles (say) must=20
>provide a far-from-equilibrium system...for a million years...or=20
>hundreds of millions of years. You can=E2=80=99t pause the process, =
because any=20
>developing polymers will fall apart and reset the clock.
>
>What are the chances of that kind of geological and environmental=20
>stability and continuity?
>
>Therefore, the formation of an autonomous protocell naturalistically has=
=20
>vanishingly small probability.


There were many warm little ponds, spread throughout the young Earth,
all multiplying that probability.  Try to keep that in mind.

--=20
To know less than we don't know is the nature of most knowledge