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From: Cindy Hamilton <chamilton5280@invalid.com>
Newsgroups: rec.food.cooking
Subject: Re: Grocery Prices
Date: Wed, 14 May 2025 21:48:15 -0000 (UTC)
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On 2025-05-14, Ed P <esp@snet.n> wrote:
> As expected, the future is not good.
>
> https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/personalfinance/fact-check-are-grocery-prices-really-down-under-trump/ar-AA1EMyWk?
>
> On April 29, 2025, in an interview with ABC’s Terry Moran marking his 
> first 100 days back in the Oval Office, Trump stated: “Look, since I 
> came in, gasoline is down, groceries are down, egg prices are down — 
> many things are down, just about everything.”
>
> But with many Americans still feeling the pinch at the checkout line, 
> it’s worth asking whether the numbers back him up or if inflation is 
> simply cooling from earlier highs.
>
> Current economic data contradicts Trump’s assertion. According to the 
> U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), while prices for some specific 
> items have decreased — fresh vegetable prices, for example, were 3.0% 
> lower in March compared to March 2024 — the overall trend for grocery 
> prices continues upward.
>
> The USDA projects overall food prices to increase by 3.5% in 2025, with 
> food-at-home prices (grocery store purchases) rising by 3.3%. This 
> exceeds the historical average annual increase of 2.6% recorded from 
> 2005 to 2024.
>
> You’ll see substantial price hikes in specific food categories:
>
> Beef prices are expected to jump 6.3% in 2025.
> Egg prices, which Trump specifically mentioned as decreasing, are 
> projected to surge by 54.6% in 2025, mainly due to ongoing avian flu 
> outbreaks.
> According to economist David Bieri of Virginia Tech University, as 
> reported by ABC News, prices are still increasing, just at a slower 
> pace. This distinction between easing inflation and actual price drops 
> is key to understanding the current economic climate.
>
> With food prices rising sharply in key categories, finding savings 
> elsewhere becomes even more important — especially on everyday expenses 
> beyond the grocery store. You can slash expenses on dining, travel, 
> eyeglasses, prescriptions and more with AARP — Just $15/year with 
> auto-renewal. Join now and save hundreds.
>
> The impact of trade policies on consumer prices
> Recent tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China have further 
> complicated the price landscape. According to an April 15 report from 
> The Budget Lab at Yale, these tariffs have increased consumer prices by 
> approximately 3.0% in the short term.
>
> For the average household, this translates to a potential $4,900 cost 
> increase in 2025 if buying habits remain unchanged. Even if families 
> switch to store brands or cheaper alternatives, they could still face a 
> 1.6% price increase, costing about $2,600 more per household annually.

I've seen an analysis that says prices (not specifically food prices)
are coming down because demand is softening because of uncertainty
due to the on-again, off-again tariffs.  They're worried they'll
get laid off.

-- 
Cindy Hamilton