Path: news.eternal-september.org!eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org>
Newsgroups: rec.bicycles.tech
Subject: Re: What the Constitution, Supreme Court say about 'due process' for
 Trump deportees:
Date: Mon, 9 Jun 2025 12:34:52 -0500
Organization: Yellow Jersey, Ltd.
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On 6/9/2025 12:29 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
> On Sun, 8 Jun 2025 21:40:04 -0500, AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
> 
>> On 6/8/2025 8:30 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
>>> On Sun, 8 Jun 2025 19:56:14 -0500, AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>>>
>>>> https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/brazil
>>>
>>> "Estimated cumulative excess deaths per 100,000 population during
>>> COVID-19, Jun 17, 2024 for USA and Brazil"
>>> <https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/covid?time=latest&mapSelect=USA~BRA&Metric=Excess%20mortality%20(estimates)&Interval=Cumulative&Relative%20to%20population=true&country=USA~BRA~JPN~DEU>
>>>
>>> Identical rates for excess deaths per 100,000 for USA and Brazil
>>> sounds like someone has been tweaking the data from Brazil to make the
>>> number more believable.
>>>
>>> Also, notice that the confirmed cumulative (total) deaths per 100,000
>>> population for Brazil is a constant 307 (flat line) from Mar 1, 2022
>>> to May 11, 2025.  This means that either Brazil has successfully
>>> controlled the spread of Covid-19 (unlikely), or that Brazil simply
>>> stopped reporting new cases (more likely).
>>>
>>>
>>
>> More poking about shows various totals but not over one
>> million. I may have missed something more definitive.
>>
>> Maybe 500K
>> https://www.statista.com/topics/6168/coronavirus-covid-19-in-brazil/#topicOverview
>>
>> Maybe 700K
>> https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-maps-and-cases/
>>
>> Maybe 711K
>> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil/
>>
>> I don't know but 3 million seems high for a 213 million
>> population.
> 
> The problem with predicting fatalities is that every country had their
> own method of counting fatalities.  The WHO tried to define something
> resembling standards, which mostly worked in countries where the
> government was sufficiently stable that it was unlikely to be
> overthrown by a failure to protect its citizens.  I added to the
> confusion by providing a graph that showed Excess Mortality numbers,
> which are themselves little better than a guess.  Most of the early
> trend estimates came from the very rapid rise of new cases in the
> early days of Covid-19.  Extrapolating from such data after the
> initial panic resulted in wide variations in projected new cases.
> Looking at the world graph for cases and deaths, trying to estimate
> anything before May 2020 was futile because of the rapid rise. Between
> May 2020 and Feb 2022, it might be possible to speculate a trend.
> After Feb 2022, it was all over, basically flat line, and fairly
> useless for projections.
> "Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, United
> States"
> <https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-deaths-and-cases-covid-19?country=~USA>
> and Brazil"
> <https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-deaths-and-cases-covid-19?country=~BRA>
> 
> Another problem was that the data collection and interpretation was
> often performed by those who had a vested interest in the conclusions.
> We had some of that in Santa Cruz County.  Initially, every hospital
> and public health organization created their own Covid-19 dashboards.
> In multiple stages, various governmental organization literally
> grabbed control of the data and produced their own dashboards.  It was
> amazing how the same data could produce dramatically different
> projections.
> 
> Since the slope of the curve was initially very steep, the computer
> models produced results that suggested that everyone would soon be
> dead or dying.  Later projections were not so pessimistic, but since
> they tended to continue using 2020 data (because that was all that was
> available for a year or two), the projections continued to predict
> that we're all doomed.  That's probably where the 3 million cases came
> from.
> 
> Meanwhile, the politicians did their best to interfere and add
> additional layers of confusion.  I'm too lazy to provide some examples
> but let's say that all sides did their best to "adjust" the numbers to
> make themselves look comparatively better than their critics (and fund
> their supporting organizations).  Meanwhile, every student, scientist,
> and politician was producing "survey" research articles in the belief
> that averaging the widely varying data sources would somehow produce
> sane projections on the assumption that all the errors would somehow
> cancel each other out.  Meanwhile, the only journals worth reading are
> those that itemize retractions:
> <https://retractionwatch.com>
> <https://retractionwatch.com/retracted-coronavirus-covid-19-papers/>
> 
> 

Yes much agreed all around, especially with early 
predictions from various Cassandras, which did of course not 
come to be.

I was intrigued by Dr Shadow's '3 million dead in Brasil' 
comment. I remain skeptical on that point.

-- 
Andrew Muzi
am@yellowjersey.org
Open every day since 1 April, 1971