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From: Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: rec.arts.sf.written,rec.arts.comics.strips
Subject: Re: xkcd: Neighbor-Source Heat Pump
Date: Wed, 11 Jun 2025 15:20:17 -0500
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On 6/11/2025 11:13 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
> On Tue, 10 Jun 2025 21:29:08 GMT, scott@slp53.sl.home (Scott Lurndal)
> wrote:
> 
>> Paul S Person <psperson@old.netcom.invalid> writes:
>>> On Sun, 08 Jun 2025 17:00:49 GMT, scott@slp53.sl.home (Scott Lurndal)
>>
>>> I refer you to this informative article:
>>>
>>> https://techxplore.com/news/2024-05-barriers-cold-climates-energy-poverty=
>>> .html
>>>
>>> Granted, this is from Southeast Michigan and is comparing costs with
>>> natural gas.
>>
>> I think a study of a handful of 60-year-old homes in one corner of
>> a northern state is not particularly indicative of a general trend.
> 
> Of course you don't. It opposes your preferred narrative.
> 
>> The actual study (although it is really a partially a meta-analysis
>> of other papers) is here:
>>
>> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921344924002933?via%3Dihub
>>
>> The find the median payback is 24 years, including weatherization of the 60
>> year-old homes.  Unattractive to low-income homeowners, thus they
>> recommend government incentives to aid such homeowners.
>>
>> However, the vast majority of homes, even in Michigan, likely
>> are either much newer (built after 1975) with better weatherization
>> or have been weatherized already and would likely benefit from
>> a heat pump system.
> 
> Just keep denying the demonstrated reality.
> 
> Alternately, find a similar study of the vast majority of homes.
> 
> <snippo stuff>
> 
>> In your particular case, the price of heating oil can be rather
>> volatile, peaking at $4.26 in 2022 (currently less than $2.00);
>> as a fundamentally limited resource, it won't remain that cheap
>> forever.
>>
>> https://www.macrotrends.net/2479/heating-oil-prices-historical-chart-data
> 
> I'm not sure what that is showing: is it just the price in New York
> Harbor? Is that supposed to control prices throughout the country?
> 
> Examining my records shows prices actually paid 2020-2025:
> 
> 01/21/20	3.489
> 11/23/20	3.079
> 05/04/21	3.639
> 02/12/22	4.589
> 12/01/22	5.639
> 05/08/23	5.079
> 03/01/24	5.079
> 01/02/25	4.939
> 
> Keep in mind that the Pacific NW is a bit ... isolated ... oil-wise.
> Basically, we have our own refineries and our costs (including
> gasoline for cars) are always a bit higher than elsewhere. Still, the
> peak in Dec 22 is consistent with the general trend your link shows.
> 
> A few years back, /all/ the refineries were planning to close (for
> various reasons) at the same time. One of our Senators suggested they
> rethink this, as it would boost gas prices and might be viewed as a
> form of illegal collusion.
> 
> The irony here, of course, is that, to avoid being charged with
> collusion, they had to collude to decide on a staggered schedule of
> closures. Such is the gap between theory and reality.

In my lifetime, we have dropped from 250+ refineries in the USA in 1980 
to the present 90.  Of course, I am talking about real refineries with 
30 to 100 unit operations, not the little tea kettles.

Lynn