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From: Jay Morris <morrisj@epsilon3.me>
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Subject: Re: Pearls Before Swine: TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome)
Date: Tue, 8 Jul 2025 22:29:57 -0500
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On 7/8/2025 4:11 PM, Bobbie Sellers wrote:
>      The team leaders were cut. One can imagine that the leaders might
> have been more capable of impressing the locals with the danger.
> 
>>
>> Although local authorities are looking very bad, the weather service 
>> situation is not clear to me.  Doge's cuts technically do not come for 
>> a few weeks, but staffing levels are already down.  With more people 
>> the warnings might have been followed up with more personal contacts, 
>> as has happened in the past.
>>
>> Nobody in the news seems to be focusing on the flood watch that was 
>> put out Friday.  The watch says, well, watch.  Trouble may be coming, 
>> keep an eye out for further bulletins.  Virtually all the commentary 
>> seems to assume that a watch is something to be ignored.  Even in an 
>> area known to be prone to flash floods.
>>

The regional office (fully staffed and more) put out a series of watches 
and warnings, the last being an extreme warning about an hour before the 
flood, so late because the storm built so fast. Every time a storm of 
any significant strength moves through the hill country and south of it 
we get watches, warnings, and floods but the floods rarely raise far 
enough to do much damage. Mainly because building is not allowed in the 
frequently flooded part of the floodplain. Most deaths occur from people 
driving through low water crossings, even when the gates are closed[1], 
warning lights are flashing, etc. There are "Turn Around, Don't Drown" 
signs at almost every crossing, billboards, and TV commercials but 
people ignore it. [2]

So yes, we get complacent about watches and even warnings.

> 
>      I think it was 1987 when another flash flood rose higher.  Trump on 
> site
> dismissed this as a 100 year flood but it is much more frequent than that.
> Due to climate changes which he believes to be a Chinese invention.
> 

The 1987 flood was lower by a few feet. the 1935 flood was higher by a 
couple feet. The major difference was how fast it developed and the time 
of occurrence. This flood was caused by a rain bomb that dropped 10" an 
hour in a very localized area very early in the morning. Most of our 
flooding occurs with moderate-to-heavy rain over a wide area building up 
in the hill country creeks leading to the rivers.

Many of the buildings destroyed had been there 30, 40, 50, even a 100 
years and while they may have been flooded before, now they are 
completely gone. If I remember correctly, Camp Mystic was barely touched 
in the 1987 flood.

A 100 year flood is also misunderstood. It means every year there's a 
one in 100 chance of having a flood of a certain magnitude. It's 
expressed better on floodplain maps. The basic areas indicated are: if 
it rains there's going to be a flood in this area, there's a 1% chance 
in a year of a flood in this area, and there's a .25% chance in a year 
of a flood in this area. In San Antonio we had 100 year (1%) floods in 
1998 and 2002.

 From what I've heard many Kerr County residents didn't want the siren 
system. The thinking being that it's going to be a bad as the 
watches/warnings. They're going to go off at least a few times a year, 
if not several, every time the river rises five feet so people would 
just ignore them unless they are actually in the river.

I'll also note that this was not the only river to flood from this 
system, just the worst. I think three others. We've had more rain in the 
area and two storm systems moved through the San Antonio area, with 
flood watches.

[1]I don't think I've seen one locked but since I don't go near low 
water crossings when it's raining not positive.

[2]Sometimes it doesn't matter what you do. We recently had 15 people 
killed in their cars. They were stopped at a traffic light on a 
low-lying interstate access road when a wall of water came sweeping 
across the road, carrying the vehicles into a creek and downstream for a 
couple of miles.

Jay - who used to live a lot closer to the hill county but moved further 
south, where we still get flooding.