Path: nntp.eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org>
Newsgroups: rec.bicycles.tech
Subject: Re: General Motors quietly closed the door this week on a goal to
 make only electric vehicles by 2035.
Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2025 20:20:17 -0500
Organization: Yellow Jersey, Ltd.
Lines: 97
Message-ID: <105c7gi$1lci9$1@dont-email.me>
References: <a7pe7kd53dvda90vj15e5k90ducth4ct6v@4ax.com>
 <klpf7k5kd49jgoo2gsfoa3ti798dbchclg@4ax.com> <1058rku$rk5b$1@dont-email.me>
 <1ltf7klta5gi28vbqbas3ckg16at9ivk7s@4ax.com> <1059a0f$v8bj$2@dont-email.me>
 <enbg7ktl4ml1pf2qc90pjf6pdrjajus9vo@4ax.com>
 <mds557F516oU1@mid.individual.net> <105au96$1cn5u$2@dont-email.me>
 <mdsealF6gioU1@mid.individual.net>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
Injection-Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2025 03:20:19 +0200 (CEST)
Injection-Info: dont-email.me; posting-host="3be9b2abbe3be8eb0ec935e36649e72c";
	logging-data="1749577"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@eternal-september.org";	posting-account="U2FsdGVkX1/Yq2heKfEZ98uVPAp3xRXL"
User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird
Cancel-Lock: sha1:hHL2R8oap9QNiFPTe/iewW6kcq4=
Content-Language: en-US
In-Reply-To: <mdsealF6gioU1@mid.individual.net>

On 7/17/2025 9:06 AM, Roger Merriman wrote:
> AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>> On 7/17/2025 6:29 AM, Roger Merriman wrote:
>>> Catrike Ryder <Soloman@old.bikers.org> wrote:
>>>> On Wed, 16 Jul 2025 22:44:32 -0000 (UTC), Beej Jorgensen
>>>> <beej@beej.us> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> In article <1ltf7klta5gi28vbqbas3ckg16at9ivk7s@4ax.com>,
>>>>> Catrike Ryder  <Soloman@old.bikers.org> wrote:
>>>>>> I just sold my 16 year old, 107K mile Nissan Frontier with a 4 Litre
>>>>>> V6 for $5K I suspect it will retail for twice that. I wonder what a 16
>>>>>> year old EV with a depleted battery is worth.
>>>>>
>>>>> Tough to go back 16 years for EVs, but Carfax has a 2015 Tesla Model S
>>>>> with 170,000 miles for $9,999. A 2014 with 58,000 miles is listed for
>>>>> $15,970.
>>>>
>>>> I wouldn't touch the 170K Tesla for any price, but the 58K car might
>>>> have some miles left on the batteries, but I wouldn't buy it.
>>>>
>>>> Here's a 2015 Nissan Frontier with 68,666 miles for $17,995. I'll bet
>>>> the Tesla cost a lot more new then the Frontier so it's depreciated
>>>> more. The Frontier also has many more miles in it's future than the
>>>> Tesla. I liked my 2009 Frontier and I would have kept it for the rest
>>>> of my remaining life if it had a decent back seat.
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> C'est bon
>>>> Soloman
>>>>
>>>
>>> With batteries the designs are apparently getting better about degrading,
>>> it’s quoted that relatively few batteries are available for recycling as
>>> they are largely still in the cars, remember that this reboot of the
>>> electric cars is fairly young.
>>>
>>> And indeed the choice of EV’s isn’t great unless all you want is a SUV are
>>> a few Pickups to be fair but estates for example you have 1 choice though
>>> believe more are coming.
>>>
>>> Ie it’s a moving target as more choice and the design improves.
>>>
>>> Which is clearly expensive so if manufacturers in some markets can delay or
>>> rather keep selling old technology that has good profits margins they’d be
>>> foolish from a economic standpoint not to take that approach which is what
>>> they are doing.
>>>
>>> Roger Merriman
>>>
>>
>> +1
>> Yes, that is a question with no definitive answer:
>>
>> https://www.motortrend.com/features/how-long-does-a-tesla-battery-last
>>
>> Then again it's a significant expense when/if needed:
>> https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/tesla-battery-replacement-costs
>>
>> I see Mercedes is testing a race car with modular changeable
>> (pit stop quick) battery packs, but for many designs,
>> including Tesla, the battery unit with many cells is a
>> structural member and as such not trivial to replace.
>>
> 
> Yup most go for the “skateboard” frame design hence SUV being a good choice
> for EV’s. The idea of swapping batteries doesn’t seem to realistically take
> off.
> 
> Are some local ish some non electric lines (trains) that companies are
> experimenting with battery powered trains, apparently works well, clearly
> an option for some uses, Buses are routinely EV’s now which makes for a
> nicer experience ie not sitting in a rattling bus!
> 
> Re Tesla and their market share, they had almost the entire US EV market so
> even without Musk and old products line ups and so on, you’d expect the
> proportion to drop as other companies catch up, as ever the danger of the
> 1st to market!
> 
> For example HMS Dreadnought was ordered after Japan and US which both where
> building All big gun battleships, but UK industrial production being what
> it was, HMS Dreadnought was built and commissioned first, and became the
> name for the new concept.
> 
> Roger Merriman

True for all technologies.

Just because the physics is workable, general adoption 
greatly depends on the economics, scale, logistics etc of 
fuel and service maintenance:

https://www.stellantis.com/en/news/press-releases/2025/july/stellantis-discontinues-hydrogen-fuel-cell-technology-development-program

-- 
Andrew Muzi
am@yellowjersey.org
Open every day since 1 April, 1971