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From: Paul S Person <psperson@old.netcom.invalid>
Newsgroups: rec.arts.sf.written
Subject: Re: (Off Topic) The Case for Mars by Robert Zubrin
Date: Fri, 05 Jul 2024 08:05:55 -0700
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On Fri, 05 Jul 2024 07:12:08 -0600, John Savard
<quadibloc@servername.invalid> wrote:

>On Thu, 4 Jul 2024 13:04:58 -0000 (UTC), jdnicoll@panix.com (James
>Nicoll) wrote:
>
>>The Case for Mars by Robert Zubrin
>>
>>How America will put people on Mars by 2010!
>>
>>https://jamesdavisnicoll.com/review/so-crystal-clear
>>
>>Technically not SF, at least not intentionally.=20
>
>I did notice how Zubrin handwaved away the question of radiation in
>space. Since atronauts are celebrated as heroes, there would be
>volunteers willing to put up with an enhanced cancer risk, so no
>problem.
>
>Just the other day, I was reading about how radiation and microgravity
>would shink people's kidneys so much that they couldn't survive a trip
>to Mars for that reason alone!
>
>I do have an answer for the skeptics - if radiation and microgravity
>are problems, then let's not put up with them on a trip to Mars. So,
>on my web site, I point out that an O'Neill space habitat could be
>improved by enclosing it in a wine-bottle shaped enclosure providing,
>if necessary, a couple metres worth of solid rock. And the opening of
>the wine bottle could point at a big slab of rock, with mirrors in
>between to direct concentrated sunlight to the habitat.
>
>Yes, radiation shielding makes cosmic rays worse... but only _up to a
>point_. As the existence of life on Earth proves.
>
>But if it is required to construct an enormous space habitat with gobs
>of lunar material to have a way to safely go to Mars... then it won't
>be _inexpensive_ to get there. Nothing at all like Zubrin's optimism,
>even if the skeptics who say it can _never_ be done are wrong.

You forgot the treadmill, to produce an equivalent of gravity.

The first step is to colonize the Moon. And I mean /colonize/, not
just establish a five-person outpost. Domes/caves, hundreds of people,
lots of babies (it's much cheaper to grow the population that way than
to import it from Earth), and, with any luck, in a few decades ships
useable to colonize Mars.

Large ships, holding thousands. Most of which stay on planet, while
some crew the ship on its return. Multiple ships, so one lands every
year. Colonize, as in domes/caves, thousands of people, lots of
babies.

As to doing it ... the simplest way to get it done is to convince a
1%-er that doing this will make that 1%-er richer. They have the
money, all they need is the motivation.

>Helium-3, for use in space exploration, not for use on Earth, may well
>be an important reason for exploring the Moon. Deuterium on Mars? It
>is to laugh, but I only noticed that in James' column, not when I read
>Zubrin's book. Sadly, Mars isn't likely to have reserves of dilithium,
>or unobtanium (not titanium, which you can find on the Moon, but the
>stuff from Avatar)... or a library left behind by an ancient Martian
>civilization including plans for FTL spaceships.
>
>Mars gets hit by asteroids a lot more often than Earth. But if you're
>in an underground habitat instead of breathing the local air, an
>asteroid impact is a strictly _local_ catastrophe, not the global one
>the dinosaurs experienced on Earth. So there is a _real_ reason for
>settling Mars, and that's to ensure species survival. Underground
>habitats on Proxima Centauri b, despite the solar flares, as a way to
>survive both Sol and Alpha Centauri going off the Main Sequence, are
>also a good idea in my opinion.
>
>You could build similar underground habitats on Earth! Yes, but while
>they protect against many hazards to be found in space, they're not
>immune to the persistent efforts of an invading Russian or Chinese
>army.
>
>To me, though, the _biggest_ flaw in Zubrin's analysis is where he
>dismisses concern about back contamination. Pathogens evolve over
>millions of years to infect their hosts! We get hit by meteorites that
>were knocked off of Mars!
>
>He is right that we don't need to worry about Martian measles or
>Martian malaria. But what I'm worried about is Martian mold and
>Martian mildew.
>
>Eukaryotic cells from Mars, if they existed, wouldn't survive the
>journey to Earth on a meteor, so no, we haven't already been exposed
>to all potential Martian pathogens. And the _kind_ of Martian pathogen
>that could still prove to be a menace to life on Earth, despite not
>having millions of years to adapt to infecting Earthly life forms, is
>that which would simply ignore our utterly alien immune systems, and
>view us as walking piles of sugars (and _possibly_ amino acids).
>
>Sure, Mars is, with about 99.99% probability, utterly lifeless. But I
>have a *very* low tolerance for any level of risk that we might just
>turn the entire human population of Earth into green goo.

Well, that /would/ solve the Trump Problem.
--=20
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"