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Path: ...!weretis.net!feeder8.news.weretis.net!2.eu.feeder.erje.net!feeder.erje.net!feeds.news.ox.ac.uk!news.ox.ac.uk!nntp-feed.chiark.greenend.org.uk!ewrotcd!news.eyrie.org!beagle.ediacara.org!.POSTED.beagle.ediacara.org!not-for-mail From: erik simpson <eastside.erik@gmail.com> Newsgroups: talk.origins Subject: Re: Ool - out at first base? Date: Fri, 13 Dec 2024 16:13:01 -0800 Organization: University of Ediacara Sender: to%beagle.ediacara.org Approved: moderator@beagle.ediacara.org Message-ID: <1293489b-0903-410e-ac94-174040aec968@gmail.com> References: <vj60ng$9f3v$1@dont-email.me> <nmdfljll8c8tokl1upfn7mbt4vjd7f0do5@4ax.com> <vjak6b$16l6r$1@dont-email.me> <gnqoljdl148j78jjvtke1pk81bk1hf1ard@4ax.com> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Injection-Info: beagle.ediacara.org; posting-host="beagle.ediacara.org:3.132.105.89"; logging-data="41545"; mail-complaints-to="usenet@beagle.ediacara.org" User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird To: talk-origins@moderators.isc.org Return-Path: <eastside.erik@gmail.com> X-Original-To: talk-origins@ediacara.org Delivered-To: talk-origins@ediacara.org id C3CF3229782; Fri, 13 Dec 2024 19:13:10 -0500 (EST) by beagle.ediacara.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 7BEDE229765 for <talk-origins@ediacara.org>; Fri, 13 Dec 2024 19:13:08 -0500 (EST) by moderators.individual.net (Exim 4.98) for talk-origins@moderators.isc.org with esmtps (TLS1.3) tls TLS_AES_128_GCM_SHA256 (envelope-from <eastside.erik@gmail.com>) id 1tMFmK-00000000P4p-31HQ; Sat, 14 Dec 2024 01:13:05 +0100 for <talk-origins@moderators.isc.org>; Fri, 13 Dec 2024 16:13:04 -0800 (PST) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=20230601; t=1734135183; x=1734739983; darn=moderators.isc.org; h=content-transfer-encoding:in-reply-to:from:references:newsgroups:to :content-language:subject:user-agent:mime-version:date:message-id :from:to:cc:subject:date:message-id:reply-to; bh=zNZOCd4ESz/uCPa4+YXmKNCtC8/71hgFFHO7N8QdtJA=; b=K8+Tx54SzEGJ7rASqjBln4DAXJJ4ef+tfYhuQb2EkWbhMGHW7z/p8CdktPwXYayiNx 0+TkU4QnUQ+mBcwNHY5HWBDH5J0M2Sw71VASlwItMIRB4muu+nNbu+6LTMGs9HISJ7Hl FrzJ0z0vu3rq9UivfQe9gP1G256bBscGBOMbizPPwHfjZG120HRXsFVx/Tb4kcaTMWNE YBte7nCPW0vcKdnLyLvXPoCLNS23IrPVCLQ8matBw0+V+O+G3Hvj0ilVzxPIa7fw82sQ TJak6GlmOS4tzg/Nota5gybVSjCJL3QpC4Btw7F8yMi//E3OH9Tz2FsmCC10jLaSTb4Z wILw== X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20230601; t=1734135183; x=1734739983; h=content-transfer-encoding:in-reply-to:from:references:newsgroups:to :content-language:subject:user-agent:mime-version:date:message-id :x-gm-message-state:from:to:cc:subject:date:message-id:reply-to; bh=zNZOCd4ESz/uCPa4+YXmKNCtC8/71hgFFHO7N8QdtJA=; b=o+gPzN4TgXNipnm7QZSGNKFn6g0XcHFHYQe/Rldq/gvm6nvDV1xn0GXoc3tGupMqdn dyN21O7dmRDl2M+DWFTu1AoF2lCt5cHNw3rUUGT1iyvEHSUimHylq1CvRA0zgWmzz8Sy 8ZsxzJnJS36VG9d92K0dmvVBivFu3eKHVP8frcZB1KK3qOe8Hfwtau6nuG/Re7zTcRN9 txU4hR/jZDW9br1DLDhDf2TmDJsYZ0RCM1e3Tnj8BQVrhqqV+wBPnsOzPZhQ4hkHwD3K 3UvL4CQk3bK5pmaHPCMUZuifvoueaGc+PJiX+W3NQaePwS0BxkLizm/lQJ2bh2HFz/Oz l6rQ== X-Gm-Message-State: AOJu0YyKs0RUM6SDzjxiKtgBsTwpNjWRrdOb/rvDswcHAAwFyNI+9vWS 8Ckq44wZlDw5RM7YtuOQQy63f29cgKiNFdaBZNrDCypxMv2MXFQDegOlYQ== X-Gm-Gg: ASbGncvjVJurdch9yvFsSPEwSPjx1NQpYMyrzaG7Dj3wreOThhgR6jECmkyIC6ZKh8U 28Vqbw7M++zdEs5chQ8CT9dum0RVq6UpyIMKxaIkopMS5evLourT/l5MlGX489dgy5KQqZ8ilxL JWtCRK7H2OlB8X1ACcQ5y7PeFK8WT0ZfVPnym51Oa6yKNlyzs7D+m/KwT+Yd4mh7CmGDFotet3V zX2FFjP662gYVonFXkx91EVbeo8t9UmJM8x7L9Xhh40xBkcPbS984g05RvqCRwJDvvN4calYwNJ X-Google-Smtp-Source: AGHT+IGrBbTqK+HdMOu5rh3GTK32bxpxfkEqaGw52fBb7OhPvpssDxIhvfXGlStqq56lPgdJIO1Cug== X-Received: by 2002:a17:90b:3c8a:b0:2ee:d193:f3d5 with SMTP id 98e67ed59e1d1-2f28fa5b800mr7911195a91.7.1734135182673; Fri, 13 Dec 2024 16:13:02 -0800 (PST) by smtp.gmail.com with ESMTPSA id 98e67ed59e1d1-2f2a244a8d4sm343863a91.53.2024.12.13.16.13.02 for <talk-origins@moderators.isc.org> (version=TLS1_3 cipher=TLS_AES_128_GCM_SHA256 bits=128/128); Fri, 13 Dec 2024 16:13:02 -0800 (PST) Content-Language: en-US In-Reply-To: <gnqoljdl148j78jjvtke1pk81bk1hf1ard@4ax.com> Bytes: 7710 Lines: 68 On 12/13/24 9:19 AM, Bob Casanova wrote: > On Wed, 11 Dec 2024 10:51:36 +1100, the following appeared > in talk.origins, posted by MarkE <me22over7@gmail.com>: > >> On 10/12/2024 2:35 pm, Bob Casanova wrote: >>> On Mon, 9 Dec 2024 16:54:56 +1100, the following appeared in >>> talk.origins, posted by MarkE <me22over7@gmail.com>: >>> >>>> We need prebiotic formation and supply of nucleotides for RNA world, and >>>> other models at some stage. The scope of the problem of the supply of >>>> these precursors is prone to underestimation. >>>> >>>> Nucleotides are chemically challenging in terms of the prebiotic >>>> synthesis and assembly of their three constituents of nitrogenous base, >>>> sugar and phosphate group. >>>> >>>> Harder again are the requirements for supply of these building blocks. >>>> You need (eventually) all canonical bases in sufficient concentration, >>>> purity, chirality, activation, distribution, location, etc. >>>> >>>> But the greatest problem I think is this: time. How long must you >>>> maintain the supply described above in order to assemble a >>>> self-replicating RNA strand? And even if you managed that, how much more >>>> time is needed before reaching a protocell capable of self-synthesising >>>> nucleotides? One million years? One hundred million years? >>>> >>>> A hypothised little warm pond with wetting/drying cycles (say) must >>>> provide a far-from-equilibrium system...for a million years...or >>>> hundreds of millions of years. You can’t pause the process, because any >>>> developing polymers will fall apart and reset the clock. >>>> >>>> What are the chances of that kind of geological and environmental >>>> stability and continuity? >>>> >>>> Therefore, the formation of an autonomous protocell naturalistically has >>>> vanishingly small probability. >>>> >>> Please provide the mathematical calculations which support >>> your assertions. In detail, please, with error bars; no >>> "but it seems too long!" whining. >>>> >> >> At some point this would need to be calculated and quantified, so valid >> request. >> >> My discussion at this stage though is a line of reasoning that in >> principle may significantly reduce the presumed probabilistic resources >> available for the formation of an autonomous protocell. >> >> In summary the argument is: if a hypothesised little warm pond (or >> thermal vent, etc) has virtually zero chance of producing this >> protocell, then no amount of ponds and planets will help: >> >> P(OoL) = N_ponds x N_planets x P(protocell) x P(post-protocell) >> >> If P(protocell) -> 0, then P(OoL) -> 0 >> >> Of course, it remains to be demonstrated that P(protocell) -> 0, but >> would you agree with the logic of the argument? >> > Logic is worthless absent data, and can prove (or disprove) > nothing. Your argument is as valid as that of the Fermi > "Paradox" or arguments regarding the number of angels that > can dance on a pinpoint; i.e., of zero value without data. > So again, please provide the mathematical calculations which > support your assertions. In detail, please, with error bars. >> MarkE is the out at first.