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From: erik simpson <eastside.erik@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: Ool - out at first base?
Date: Fri, 13 Dec 2024 16:13:01 -0800
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On 12/13/24 9:19 AM, Bob Casanova wrote:
> On Wed, 11 Dec 2024 10:51:36 +1100, the following appeared
> in talk.origins, posted by MarkE <me22over7@gmail.com>:
> 
>> On 10/12/2024 2:35 pm, Bob Casanova wrote:
>>> On Mon, 9 Dec 2024 16:54:56 +1100, the following appeared in
>>> talk.origins, posted by MarkE <me22over7@gmail.com>:
>>>
>>>> We need prebiotic formation and supply of nucleotides for RNA world, and
>>>> other models at some stage. The scope of the problem of the supply of
>>>> these precursors is prone to underestimation.
>>>>
>>>> Nucleotides are chemically challenging in terms of the prebiotic
>>>> synthesis and assembly of their three constituents of nitrogenous base,
>>>> sugar and phosphate group.
>>>>
>>>> Harder again are the requirements for supply of these building blocks.
>>>> You need (eventually) all canonical bases in sufficient concentration,
>>>> purity, chirality, activation, distribution, location, etc.
>>>>
>>>> But the greatest problem I think is this: time. How long must you
>>>> maintain the supply described above in order to assemble a
>>>> self-replicating RNA strand? And even if you managed that, how much more
>>>> time is needed before reaching a protocell capable of self-synthesising
>>>> nucleotides? One million years? One hundred million years?
>>>>
>>>> A hypothised little warm pond with wetting/drying cycles (say) must
>>>> provide a far-from-equilibrium system...for a million years...or
>>>> hundreds of millions of years. You can’t pause the process, because any
>>>> developing polymers will fall apart and reset the clock.
>>>>
>>>> What are the chances of that kind of geological and environmental
>>>> stability and continuity?
>>>>
>>>> Therefore, the formation of an autonomous protocell naturalistically has
>>>> vanishingly small probability.
>>>>
>>> Please provide the mathematical calculations which support
>>> your assertions. In detail, please, with error bars; no
>>> "but it seems too long!" whining.
>>>>
>>
>> At some point this would need to be calculated and quantified, so valid
>> request.
>>
>> My discussion at this stage though is a line of reasoning that in
>> principle may significantly reduce the presumed probabilistic resources
>> available for the formation of an autonomous protocell.
>>
>> In summary the argument is: if a hypothesised little warm pond (or
>> thermal vent, etc) has virtually zero chance of producing this
>> protocell, then no amount of ponds and planets will help:
>>
>> P(OoL) = N_ponds x N_planets x P(protocell) x P(post-protocell)
>>
>> If P(protocell) -> 0, then P(OoL) -> 0
>>
>> Of course, it remains to be demonstrated that P(protocell) -> 0, but
>> would you agree with the logic of the argument?
>>
> Logic is worthless absent data, and can prove (or disprove)
> nothing. Your argument is as valid as that of the Fermi
> "Paradox" or arguments regarding the number of angels that
> can dance on a pinpoint; i.e., of zero value without data.
> So again, please provide the mathematical calculations which
> support your assertions. In detail, please, with error bars.
>>
MarkE is the out at first.