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From: "Kerr-Mudd, John" <admin@127.0.0.1>
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Subject: Re: OoL =?UTF-8?B?4oCT?= out at first base?
Date: Mon, 16 Dec 2024 20:23:35 +0000
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On Mon, 16 Dec 2024 10:38:13 -0800
Mark Isaak <specimenNOSPAM@curioustaxon.omy.net> wrote:

> On 12/9/24 1:11 AM, jillery wrote:
> > On Mon, 9 Dec 2024 16:54:56 +1100, MarkE <me22over7@gmail.com> wrote:
> > 
> >> We need prebiotic formation and supply of nucleotides for RNA world, and
> >> other models at some stage. The scope of the problem of the supply of
> >> these precursors is prone to underestimation.
> >>
> >> Nucleotides are chemically challenging in terms of the prebiotic
> >> synthesis and assembly of their three constituents of nitrogenous base,
> >> sugar and phosphate group.
> >>
> >> Harder again are the requirements for supply of these building blocks.
> >> You need (eventually) all canonical bases in sufficient concentration,
> >> purity, chirality, activation, distribution, location, etc.
> >>
> >> But the greatest problem I think is this: time. How long must you
> >> maintain the supply described above in order to assemble a
> >> self-replicating RNA strand? And even if you managed that, how much more
> >> time is needed before reaching a protocell capable of self-synthesising
> >> nucleotides? One million years? One hundred million years?
> >>
> >> A hypothised little warm pond with wetting/drying cycles (say) must
> >> provide a far-from-equilibrium system...for a million years...or
> >> hundreds of millions of years. You can’t pause the process, because any
> >> developing polymers will fall apart and reset the clock.
> >>
> >> What are the chances of that kind of geological and environmental
> >> stability and continuity?
> >>
> >> Therefore, the formation of an autonomous protocell naturalistically has
> >> vanishingly small probability.
> > 
> > There were many warm little ponds, spread throughout the young Earth,
> > all multiplying that probability.  Try to keep that in mind.
> 
> Also factor in the unknown but probably large number of other earth-like 
> planets where similar processes could occur.  If things had gone a 
> little differently elsewhere, we might be calling a planet in a 
> completely different galaxy "Earth."
> 
> Also keep in mind that life has arisen on Earth somehow (I have seen it 
> here, after all).  Abiogenesis researchers are looking for the most 
> plausible mechanism for an event that was known to have happened. 
> Difficulties with earth-based biogenesis don't negate the fact that 
> panspermy and magic are, to all appearances, still less likely.
> 
Not quite panspermy, but life could have started earlier in a more
favourable pond on Mars, then a chance bolide might have seeded an Earth
that was a bit more favourable later. 
Alternatively,  having life exist deep down shelters it from heavy
impacts and gives it a chance to "re-emerge" after a deadly wipeout.

Getting any passing god interested in the project (and staying with
it) always seems as bit harder.

-- 
Bah, and indeed Humbug.