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From: ltlee1@hotmail.com (ltlee1)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.china,alt.politics.usa
Subject: Re: Trade, Debt, and De-Americanization v. raise/fall of PRC
Date: Tue, 15 Apr 2025 11:55:16 +0000
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A. Philip wrote

> Will PRC fare _better than USA_ in consequences of Trump's "follies"?
> IMHO it is quite likely (especially long term) but it is *FAR* from
> being guaranteed.

Have little idea on what constitute Chinese "fare_better." And of course
nothing is really "guaranteed."

The valid question left is to look from the opposite side: To what
degree would Trump succeed?

In that regard, I would say "Not much."

1. US trade deficit is structural with China as well as all other
nations he has targeted. Very unlikely to disappear simply by Trump's
say so without American people's full support on both mean and end.

2. Trump is track record does not look good. He started many thing
during his first term. The record is clear.

"When Mr. Trump left Washington in January 2021, many key goals remained
unmet. There was no “big, beautiful wall” on the U.S. southern border,
and the check from the Mexicans that was supposed to pay for everything
was still lost in the mail. North Korea kept its nukes, Iran remained
unbowed, Russia stayed surly, and American forces were still in
Afghanistan."  (Trump Throws Another Hail Mary by Walter Russell Mead)

3.  孙子曰："多算胜，少算不胜，而况于无算乎。" In short, more thorough planning would bring
more success, less thorough planning would bring less success. Given his
changing courses, and his team pointing to different objectives, it is
clear his planning, a Hail Mary per Walter Mead, is hardly sufficient
for such an great undertaking.