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From: "ARRL" <memberlist@arrl.org>
Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.dx,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info
Subject: ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA
Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.dx,rec.radio.shortwave
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2024 20:03:40 EDT
Organization: American Radio Relay League
Approved: RRI Admin <rec-radio-info-request@panix.com>
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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP039
ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP39
QST de W1AW 
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 39 ARLP039
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA October 14, 2024
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP039
ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA

Thanks to Carl, K9LA for contributing to this week's bulletin.

"SUBJ: ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2220 UTC/10 OCTOBER
2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.


"A halo CME first observed on 09-Oct arrived at Earth at 10/1515UT, resulting
in G4 geomagnetic conditions on 10-Oct. G4 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 11-Oct, with a chance of G5. G2 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 12-Oct, with a chance of G3 due to ongoing CME effects.


"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM
11-13 OCTOBER 2024


"GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
11 Oct: G4, chance of G5
12 Oct: G2, chance of G3
13 Oct: G0-G1"

Only four new sunspot groups emerged this week. The first was on October 4,
another on October 6 and two more on October 7.


Average daily sunspot number moved from 160 (Sep 26-Oct 2 period) to 182 (Oct
3-9 period), and average daily solar flux from 199 to 270.


Predicted solar flux is 215 on October 11-13, 210 on October 14-15, 200 and
205 on October 16-17, and 170 on October 18-21, then 175, 180, 185, 190, 195,
215, 230, 240, 250 and 255 on October 22-31, then 230 and 215 on November
1-2, then 205 on November 3-4, 200 and 185 on November 5-6, 175 on November
7-12, and 170 on November 13-17.


Predicted planetary A index reveals a huge disturbance at 122, 42, 12 and 12
on October 11-14, 5 on October 15-21, then 15, 10, 5, 5, 12 and 8 on October
22-27, 5 on October 28 til November 2, 12 and 8 on November 3-4, 5 on
November 5-7, 8 on November 8, and 5 on November 9-17.


"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere
for October 10, 2024 from OK1HH.


"During the first ten days of October, the number of sunspot groups dropped
from eleven to five, but the eruptive activity of the two largest sunspot
groups did not decrease. Not only are moderate flares (M-classes, of which 34
were observed) frequent, but large events (X-classes) are also relatively
common (five effects were observed, including one proton flare on 9 October).
Several CMEs (coronal mass ejections) were also observed.


"After the two most active regions in particular moved to the western half of
the solar disk, geomagnetic activity has increased significantly since 6
October. The most significant impacts on the state of the ionosphere were on
8 October. This will be followed by a very slow return to normal, lasting
several days. A calm development can be expected after mid-October."


Please enter a hyperlink this: https://nyti.ms/3YiNZtP [
https://nyti.ms/3YiNZtP ] 


David Moore sent this. A new era of solar observation:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/10/241003145438.htm [
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/10/241003145438.htm ] 


Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net [ mailto:k7ra@arrl.net ] . When reporting observations, don't
forget to tell us which mode you were operating.


For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
www.arrl.org/propagation [ http://www.arrl.org/propagation ] and the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at:
www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals [
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals ] . For an explanation of numbers
used in this bulletin, see www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere [
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere ] .


An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation [
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation ] . 


More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us [
http://k9la.us/ ] 


Also, check this. "Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.
https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt [ https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt ] 


Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are
at www.arrl.org/bulletins [ http://arrl.org/bulletins ] .


Sunspot numbers for October 3 through 9 2024 were 194, 229, 180, 173, 167,
164, and 165, with a mean of 182. 10.7 cm flux was 245, 312, 291, 277, 265,
277 and 225, with a mean of 270. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 8, 7,
16, 55, 58, and 19, with a mean of 24.4. Middle latitude A Index was 8, 6, 8,
13, 33, 29, and 15, with a mean of 16.

NNNN
/EX

ARRL® The National Association for Amateur Radio®
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