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Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 18 - 24 November 2024
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:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Nov 25 0217 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
18 - 24 November 2024

Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels this period. R1
(Minor) radio blackouts were observed on 18 Nov, 20 Nov and 22-24
Nov. Numerous regions produced R1 (Minor) activity, but a majority
of the M-class flares were produced from Regions 3897 (S12, L=347,
class/area Dao/220 on 20 Nov) and 3901 (S08, L=218, class/area
Dao/200 on 19 Nov). The largest event of the period was an M3.7 at
18/1253 UTC produced by Region 3901. During the period, a total of
49 C-class and 15 M-flares were observed. 

A 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit was observed on 21-22
Nov. The S1 (Minor) event began at 21/1925 UTC, reached a peak of S2
(Moderate) of 125 pfu at 22/0355 UTC and ended at 22/1845 UTC. A 100
MeV proton event at geosynchoronous orbit was observed on 21-22 Nov.
The event began at 21/1845 UTC, reached a peak of 7.4 pfu at 21/2010
UTC and ended at 22/0305 UTC. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
Unsettled levels were observed on 19-23 Nov with isolated active
levels observed on 19 Nov, 22 Nov and 24 Nov. On 19 Nov, the field
was influenced by waning positive coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS) effects and weak effects from a 14 Nov CME. On 20-23 Nov, the
field was influenced by negative polarity CH HSS effects. The solar
wind environment was pretty steady throughout the highlight period.
Total field varied between 3-13 nT, while the Bz component varied
between +8 nT to -10 nT. The wind field was steady at 400 km/s +/-50
km/s. The phi angle was in a positive sector through 20 Nov and
negative through the rest of the highlight period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
25 November - 21 December 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels (R1/R2 -
Minor/Moderate), with a chance for high levels (R3 - Strong) from 25
Nov - 21 Dec. The disk is expected to feature numerous complex
regions thoroughout the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. However,
there is a chance for proton activity following significant solar
flare activity during the outlook period. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to be at unsettled to active
periods on 29-30 Nov, 06-08 Dec, 11-14 Dec and 16-20 Dec, the first
three due to influence from recurrent positive coronal hole effects
and the last to a recurrent negative coronal hole. Mostly quiet
periods are likely on 25-28 Nov, 01-05 Dec, 09-10 Dec, 15 Dec, and
21 Dec.