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Subject: Re: How will the police find me.
Date: Sat, 25 May 2024 22:13:00 -0400
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On 5/25/2024 11:47 AM, Andrew wrote:

> What do you see?
> <https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/2010/compendia/statab/130ed/tables/11s1102.pdf>
> 
     I see irrelevant statistics that only go up to 2008 -- about
the time the iPhone came out.


> Look at first-order effects, i.e., the accident rate per year.
>   <https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/yearly-snapshot>
> 
> What do you see happening to the rate during skyrocketing cellphone days?
> <https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/historical-fatality-trends/deaths-and-rates/>
> 
> HINT: US Accident rates trending down were wholly unaffected by cellphones.
> 

   Your second link is from an insurance company group
and says that 11% of fatal crashes are known to be caused
by cellphone use. That's just the ones that admitted to it or
perhaps were found to be using their cellphone by other means.
And it's only including fatal crashes. The man who sideswiped
me while distracted by his cellphone, for example, didn't cause
a major accident. There was no bodily harm.

   Also, pedestrian deaths have increased since 2009. I wouldn't
say that proves a cellphone connection, but it certainly points
in that direction.

   Your last link simply says that death rates have decreased.
That relates to seat belts, airbags, better brakes, etc. It's
not a direct indication of actual accident rates. It doesn't
even refer to accident rates. It's referring only to deaths per
miles driven.

   This is why you need to keep your emotions out of it. Reading
so much disparate data, which actually says very little about
anything other than the usefulness of seat belts, can make it
very tempting to read meaning into it.

    An interesting other factor that's barely mentioned is the
excessive computerization. With today's cars, few things
can be done without looking at the dashboard. In older
cars, heat, AC, radio, etc can be easily adjusted without
looking. With touchscreens distraction is unavoidable.