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From: *Hemidactylus* <ecphoric@allspamis.invalid>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: Two more California Dairy workers confirmed to be H5N1 infected
Date: Wed, 04 Dec 2024 00:10:37 +0000
Organization: University of Ediacara
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RonO <rokimoto557@gmail.com> wrote:
> On 12/3/2024 8:40 AM, RonO wrote:
>> On 12/2/2024 6:35 PM, RonO wrote:
>>> On 12/2/2024 1:40 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>> https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html
>>>> https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html
>>>> 
>>>> I can't find any announcement, but the CDC has increased the 
>>>> California numbers by 2 today (Dec. 2).  The USDA has increased the 
>>>> number of herds infected to 689, but I do not know what states are 
>>>> affected because they haven't updated their data sheet.  It still has 
>>>> the old Nov 27 confirmed data that they put up last Friday.
>>>> 
>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>> 
>>> 
>>> https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-11-29/raw-farm-sales- 
>>> suspended
>>> 
>>> Another batch of raw milk products came up positive from the same 
>>> dairy that tested positive.  Initial bulk milk tank testing was 
>>> negative, but the farm has identify several asymptomatic positive 
>>> cows.  So the farm was infected and didn't know it.
>>> 
>>> https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/california- 
>>> reports- h5n1-more-retail-raw-milk-virus-infects-2-more-dairy
>>> 
>>> CIDRAP notes that two more California dairy workers have been 
>>> confirmed.   California isn't announcing positives until they are 
>>> confirmed and it takes the CDC quite a while to confirm cases.  They 
>>> may still be working on the original batch of samples submitted by 
>>> California around a month ago.  I recall a news article that claimed 
>>> that 39 samples had been submitted, and the CDC has only released 30 
>>> positives and 1 that could not be confirmed.  That would mean that the 
>>> CDC is still working on 8 samples.  It could be that the article got 
>>> the numbers wrong, or I misinterpreted number of workers tested and 
>>> submitted.  California stopped announcing how many workers that they 
>>> had tested.
>>> 
>>> CIDRAP also claims more poultry flocks have gone down in 3 states, but 
>>> doesn't name the states or the size of the poultry flocks.  Washington 
>>> should have identified their positive dairy herds by now, and it is 
>>> pretty sad that they haven't bothered to test their dairies.
>>> 
>>> Ron Okimoto
>>> 
>> It was actually 6 states that had poultry flocks go down.  All 6 should 
>> be looking for their infected dairy herds to try to stop the spread. 
>> Utah was stupid and stopped testing after they found 8 infected herds in 
>> the same county as the infected poultry farm.  They knew that they 
>> should have implemented contact tracing or bulk milk tank testing like 
>> California to find all the other infected herds, but like all the other 
>> states they went into denial.  Now another poultry farm in another Utah 
>> county has gone down with the dairy virus.  More poultry workers are 
>> being exposed to the virus, and it could have been prevented.  The price 
>> of eggs is going up because of the stupid way in which the USDA and CDC 
>> have handled this fiasco.
>> 
>> The stupidest thing is that the USDA and CDC are letting the states get 
>> away with this stupid behavior because they keep calling the dairy 
>> epidemic "avian influenza" when they know that it has been primarily a 
>> dairy infection since March.
>> 
>> Dairies are spreading the virus because dairy cattle shed huge amounts 
>> of virus, and dairy workers get infected and go to other farms 
>> (including poultry farms) and infect the new farms.  Transport of cattle 
>> has been limited to tested and negative animals since April, but the 
>> virus still spreads to states that did not get cattle and poultry farms 
>> that obviously did not get cattle.  It isn't rocket science, but the CDC 
>> and USDA have refused to face reality since the beginning when the first 
>> dairy worker was confirmed to be infected and was shedding live 
>> culturable virus.
>> 
>> Ron Okimoto
>> 
>  USDA had posted 6 more dairies (total 488), but the sample numbers go 
> to 508, so there are more in the que.
> 
> It has likely been over 2 weeks since the USDA was supposed to start 
> bulk milk tank testing, and those results should be coming in.  27% of 
> the California dairies are already known to be positive.  The raw milk 
> issue indicates that bulk milk tank testing can miss positive herds.  I 
> do not know how they are going to get around this, but they claim that 
> the herds should be tested on a routine basis, hopefully around once a 
> week, so even if they miss a herd it will likely test positive in a 
> couple of testings if there are infected cattle on the farm.
> 
Can the cattle flu variants evolve away from the test resulting in false
negatives?