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From: ltlee1@hotmail.com (ltlee1)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.china
Subject: Re: How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits
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Date: Sat, 9 Nov 2024 12:55:00 +0000
Organization: novaBBS
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The former is a team's mostly rational effort in collecting and then
turning collected information, more precise but less holistic, into
probability. In contrast, gamblers' approach is more holistic but more
ambiguous. Their action is also driven partly by emotion.

Accuracy of the approach reflects social trend. Gamblers' approach would
be a lot more reliable if the underlying society is under stress and
seeking change. Rational analysis based on the old model would be proven
to be wrong.