Article <gnqoljdl148j78jjvtke1pk81bk1hf1ard@4ax.com>

Warning: mysqli::__construct(): (HY000/1203): User howardkn already has more than 'max_user_connections' active connections in D:\Inetpub\vhosts\howardknight.net\al.howardknight.net\includes\artfuncs.php on line 21
Failed to connect to MySQL: (1203) User howardkn already has more than 'max_user_connections' active connections
Warning: mysqli::query(): Couldn't fetch mysqli in D:\Inetpub\vhosts\howardknight.net\al.howardknight.net\index.php on line 66
Article <gnqoljdl148j78jjvtke1pk81bk1hf1ard@4ax.com>

Deutsch English FranÃ§ais Italiano

<gnqoljdl148j78jjvtke1pk81bk1hf1ard@4ax.com>

View for Bookmarking (what is this?)
Look up another Usenet article

Path: ...!eternal-september.org!feeder3.eternal-september.org!nntp-feed.chiark.greenend.org.uk!ewrotcd!news.eyrie.org!beagle.ediacara.org!.POSTED.beagle.ediacara.org!not-for-mail
From: Bob Casanova <nospam@buzz.off>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: Ool - out at first base?
Date: Fri, 13 Dec 2024 10:19:19 -0700
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
Lines: 75
Sender: to%beagle.ediacara.org
Approved: moderator@beagle.ediacara.org
Message-ID: <gnqoljdl148j78jjvtke1pk81bk1hf1ard@4ax.com>
References: <vj60ng$9f3v$1@dont-email.me> <nmdfljll8c8tokl1upfn7mbt4vjd7f0do5@4ax.com> <vjak6b$16l6r$1@dont-email.me>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
Injection-Info: beagle.ediacara.org; posting-host="beagle.ediacara.org:3.132.105.89";
	logging-data="31728"; mail-complaints-to="usenet@beagle.ediacara.org"
User-Agent: ForteAgent/7.20.32.1218
To: talk-origins@moderators.isc.org
Cancel-Lock: sha1:WD299iSnunZ+1DnYFmhsPezC4Pg=
Bytes: 5646

On Wed, 11 Dec 2024 10:51:36 +1100, the following appeared
in talk.origins, posted by MarkE <me22over7@gmail.com>:

>On 10/12/2024 2:35 pm, Bob Casanova wrote:
>> On Mon, 9 Dec 2024 16:54:56 +1100, the following appeared in
>> talk.origins, posted by MarkE <me22over7@gmail.com>:
>> 
>>> We need prebiotic formation and supply of nucleotides for RNA world, and
>>> other models at some stage. The scope of the problem of the supply of
>>> these precursors is prone to underestimation.
>>>
>>> Nucleotides are chemically challenging in terms of the prebiotic
>>> synthesis and assembly of their three constituents of nitrogenous base,
>>> sugar and phosphate group.
>>>
>>> Harder again are the requirements for supply of these building blocks.
>>> You need (eventually) all canonical bases in sufficient concentration,
>>> purity, chirality, activation, distribution, location, etc.
>>>
>>> But the greatest problem I think is this: time. How long must you
>>> maintain the supply described above in order to assemble a
>>> self-replicating RNA strand? And even if you managed that, how much more
>>> time is needed before reaching a protocell capable of self-synthesising
>>> nucleotides? One million years? One hundred million years?
>>>
>>> A hypothised little warm pond with wetting/drying cycles (say) must
>>> provide a far-from-equilibrium system...for a million years...or
>>> hundreds of millions of years. You can’t pause the process, because any
>>> developing polymers will fall apart and reset the clock.
>>>
>>> What are the chances of that kind of geological and environmental
>>> stability and continuity?
>>>
>>> Therefore, the formation of an autonomous protocell naturalistically has
>>> vanishingly small probability.
>>>
>> Please provide the mathematical calculations which support
>> your assertions. In detail, please, with error bars; no
>> "but it seems too long!" whining.
>>>
>
>At some point this would need to be calculated and quantified, so valid 
>request.
>
>My discussion at this stage though is a line of reasoning that in 
>principle may significantly reduce the presumed probabilistic resources 
>available for the formation of an autonomous protocell.
>
>In summary the argument is: if a hypothesised little warm pond (or 
>thermal vent, etc) has virtually zero chance of producing this 
>protocell, then no amount of ponds and planets will help:
>
>P(OoL) = N_ponds x N_planets x P(protocell) x P(post-protocell)
>
>If P(protocell) -> 0, then P(OoL) -> 0
>
>Of course, it remains to be demonstrated that P(protocell) -> 0, but 
>would you agree with the logic of the argument?
>
Logic is worthless absent data, and can prove (or disprove)
nothing. Your argument is as valid as that of the Fermi
"Paradox" or arguments regarding the number of angels that
can dance on a pinpoint; i.e., of zero value without data.
So again, please provide the mathematical calculations which
support your assertions. In detail, please, with error bars.
>
-- 

Bob C.

"The most exciting phrase to hear in science,
 the one that heralds new discoveries, is not
 'Eureka!' but 'That's funny...'"

- Isaac Asimov