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From: vallor <vallor@vallor.earth>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: OT? Dairy flu
Date: 27 May 2024 06:45:57 GMT
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On Sat, 25 May 2024 12:49:10 -0500, RonO <rokimoto@cox.net> wrote in
<v2t8an$2vo1m$1@dont-email.me>:

> On 5/25/2024 9:49 AM, *Hemidactylus* wrote:
>> RonO <rokimoto@cox.net> wrote:
>>> The CDC issued an alert yesterday that they were initiating planning
>>> for "possiblity of increased risk to human health" from the dairy flu.
>>>  The CDC has screwed up by the numbers in terms of evolution of the
>>> virus and the threat to humans.  They knew from the first detections
>>> that humans were being infected, but they didn't initiate testing and
>>> contact tracing.  Humans had already likely spread the virus to other
>>> dairy herds for some time.  They knew from the first sequencing
>>> results that many states did not get cattle but ended up with the
>>> virus.  People were the obvious vector for spread of the virus between
>>> herds.  We have known for years that the flu virus only survives for
>>> around 5 hours on the skin and maybe up to 12 hours on clothing, but
>>> we also know that you have to be infected within a few minutes of
>>> getting it on your skin or clothing because the virus doesn't seem to
>>> be infective after a few minutes on those surfaces.  The virus
>>> survives the longest on hard surfaces and is infective off those
>>> surfaces for up to 24 hours, but the poultry farms that were infected
>>> by the dairy virus in the same counties as the infected herds would
>>> have had little reason to exchange equipment.  Infected humans likely
>>> took the virus to those poultry farms.  The two known human cases were
>>> shedding infective virus.  The CDC has understood this from the very
>>> beginning of their involvement, but they failed to act on it.  They
>>> claim that it isn't their policy to force testing onto farm workers,
>>> so they never checked to determine the rate that humans were being
>>> infected even though there was ancedotal evidence of other dairy
>>> workers with red eye (eye infection).  The crazy thing is these red
>>> eye individuals can infect other humans.  They got infected, and they
>>> are shedding virus.  If the CDC had started testing and contact
>>> tracing they would already know how the other herds and poultry flocks
>>> got infected.
>>>
>>> What they needed to do was identify all the infected herds and
>>> quarantine the herds and farm workers, but the USDA and CDC were not
>>> interested in contact tracing and tracking down additional cases. 
>>> They both claimed to rely on farm reporting.  This is stupid.  The FDA
>>> tested milk products from 38 states.  They tested products that came
>>> from milk processing plants in those states and found 17 states with
>>> H5N1 positive milk samples, but would not release the names of the
>>> states because they claimed to only be worried about the safety of the
>>> food chain. Pasteurization was found to kill the virus.  When the FDA
>>> finally did release the names of the states a couple weeks later it
>>> was found that 9 new states not yet identified as having positive
>>> dairy herds had produced milk products that were positive for the
>>> dairy virus.  3 of the states already known to have infected herds
>>> were not found to have positive dairy products, so they likely missed
>>> some positive states of the 38 tested.  The CDC could have predicted
>>> the results because they started to monitor waste water and most of
>>> the new states that were found to have positive dairy products had
>>> also shown flu virus in the waste water.
>>>
>>> The CDC knows that the longer that they allow humans to be infected by
>>> the dairy virus the more likely that it will evolve into a strain that
>>> will start killing people.  Currently the infected humans only have
>>> mild eye irritation (the virus infects mammary glands and apparently
>>> tear ducts).  The initial sequencing results indicated that there were
>>> already variants of the virus with mutations that would make them more
>>> infective in mammals, but they were minor variants at the time of the
>>> sample collections.  As the virus adapts to cattle these variants are
>>> probably the most likely to be selected for.  The virus is infecting a
>>> lot more herds than they are tracking, and it is evolving in all those
>>> herds and the dairy workers are exposed to that evolving virus.  I
>>> should note that the cats that got infected by the dairy virus had
>>> high mortality because the virus infected their brains.  Influenza
>>> virus is normally a respiratory virus, but if this virus adapted to
>>> infecting human brains that would be a real tragedy.
>>>
>>> So instead of trying to limit the current spread, the CDC has decided
>>> to prepare for human transmission of the next pandemic virus.  It
>>> doesn't sound like they are preparing correctly because you want to
>>> limit the first human cases with severe symptoms.  In order to do that
>>> you have to identify them as soon as you can.  The humans currently
>>> being infected are dairy workers, so you need to identify all the
>>> infected herds and monitor the dairy workers and their human contacts.
>>>  The next pandemic could have already started in one of the states
>>> with unidentified infected dairy herds.  They need to track down the
>>> dairies that contributed to the milk of the processing plants that
>>> produced positive milk samples.  They need to go to the counties with
>>> positive waste water (these include multiple sites in California that
>>> has not yet claimed to have positive herds and several of these sites
>>> are in rural areas surrounding the bay area, the CDC nightmare
>>> scenario) and identify infected herds.  They need to track the
>>> contacts of the dairy workers so that they can identify more infected
>>> herds in states that are already known to have infected herds.  Once
>>> they identify all the possible sources of infection they can monitor
>>> those herds and people and then try to keep any virus from spreading
>>> and becoming a pandemic.
>>>
>> My hot and possibly wrong takes are that they are dealing with a very
>> influential and somewhat litigious industry. Ask Oprah. They are also
>> dealing with a subset of the population induced with reactance. Tell
>> them not to drink raw milk and its popularity will rise. They should
>> ramp up H5 based flu shot production but that’s a crap shoot for
>> matching and effectiveness and this virus is not friendly to eggs.
>> 
>> 
> The dairy workers were resistant to be tested.  Many were illegal aliens
> and didn't want to be interviewed nor go to a doctor.  The Dairy owners
> were reluctant to participate because there was no incentive for them to
> do so, and the USDA policy was to depopulate poultry flocks and all
> poultry within a mile of the infected flock.  The poultry flocks that
> were infected with the dairy virus were all depopulated.  6 and a half
> million layers in Michigan alone.  Multiple turkey flocks have gone down
> in Minnesota and have had to be depopulated, and Minnesota is one of the
> states that had positive milk products, but they do not admit to having
> infected herds.  Minnesota also has 3 positive waste water locations in
> the state.
> 
> So there is a lot of politics involved, but the end result is that the
> virus has been allowed to spread, and there doesn't seem to be any
> movement in trying to stop the spread.  Multiple waste water sites
> around the bay area in Northern California are claimed to be above
> average in influenza content of the waste water (the claim is that they
> are orders of magnitude higher) but there isn't any claims that they are
> testing dairies in those counties.  The nightmare scenario is that
> patient zero is in the bay area and their contacts board an
> international flight as the virus takes hold in San Francisco before
> anyone notices.
> 
> One thing of note is the infamous masking requirements and social
> distancing required for Covid was found to work extremely well to stop
> influenza infections.  30,000 to 70,000 people usually die of influenza
> each year in the USA, but only a minimal number of fatalities occurred
> during the masking required during Covid.  It tells us that we could
> probably save around 40,000 people a year if we masked up during flu
> season, and had the surface sanitation policies in action.  My take is
> that the biggest advantage of masking is that if an infected person is
> required to wear a mask they deposit a lot less virus into the
> environment around them by sneezing and coughing.
> 
> Ron Okimoto

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4684694-mice-bird-flu-raw-milk/

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