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From: Roger Merriman <roger@sarlet.com>
Newsgroups: rec.bicycles.tech
Subject: Re: Helmet efficacy test
Date: 6 Apr 2025 09:55:19 GMT
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Radey Shouman <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
> Frank Krygowski <frkrygow@sbcglobal.net> writes:
> 
>> On 3/31/2025 9:36 PM, John B. wrote:
>>> On Mon, 31 Mar 2025 19:54:58 -0500, AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>>> 
>>>> On 3/31/2025 7:43 PM, John B. wrote:
>>>>> On Mon, 31 Mar 2025 18:42:12 -0400, Frank Krygowski
>>>>> <frkrygow@sbcglobal.net> wrote:
>>>>> 
>>>>>> On 3/31/2025 3:10 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
>>>>>>> Frank Krygowski <frkrygow@sbcglobal.net> writes:
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> On 3/31/2025 12:39 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
>>>>>>>>> Actually I was talking to Mr. Krygowski.  It seems to me that his
>>>>>>>>> standards for studies on flu shots are different to those for bike
>>>>>>>>> helmets, and I was curious as to what had convinced him of the efficacy
>>>>>>>>> and safety of flu shots.
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> As I said, there is nationwide, ~ whole population data indicating flu
>>>>>>>> vaccines have high effectiveness in preventing infection and/or
>>>>>>>> hospitalization. There is no such nationwide data for bike helmets,
>>>>>>>> and indeed nationwide data shows no apparent benefit. And there are
>>>>>>>> serious weaknesses in many or most helmet promoting studies.
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> Could you provide a link to that data, and its analysis?
>>>>>> Look up cyclist fatality counts since, oh, 1980, the time during which
>>>>>> helmets became normalized and popular. There is no significant reduction
>>>>>> in fatalities. And I've given links to several articles describing
>>>>>> increases in cyclist concussions.
>>>>> 
>>>>> The following data is freely available on the Web. It seems strange
>>>>> that you are unaware of it.
>>>>> 
>>>>> Year   U.S. bicycle fatality/ 100,000 population
>>>>> 1980 -- 0.422
>>>>> 1990 - 0.345
>>>>> 2000 - 0.246
>>>>> 2010 - 0.202
>>>>> 
>>>>> 
>>>>> More Data
>>>>> 
>>>>> Year Bicycle Deaths No helmet	%              Deaths Helmet	%	
>>>>> 2013	464	62	127	17
>>>>> 2014	429	59	118	16
>>>>> 2015	439	53	139	17
>>>>> 2016	425	50	138	16
>>>>> 2017	420	52	126	16
>>>>> 2018	525	60	121	14
>>>>> 2019	520	61	127	15
>>>>> 2020	535	57	168	18
>>>>> 2021	599	62	143	15
>>>>> 2022	674	62	159	15
>>>>> 
>>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> Data source on that?
>>>> 
>>>> I personally know of two helmeted riders who were killed in
>>>> traffic between 2013 and 2022 so it is certainly not zero
>>>> although "what counts?' and 'who's counting?' may be
>>>> appropriate questions here.
>>> I deliberately left the source out as Frank so often does. See above
>>> "Look up cyclist fatality counts since, oh, 1980, the time during
>>> which  helmets became normalized and popular. "
>> 
>> John, I also very often _do_ list the sources or give direct links to
>> them. I rarely get comments on them, which leads me to believe that
>> neither you nor many others ever bother to read the sources. Again,
>> I'm pretty sure I hold the record for data posted in these
>> discussions.
>> 
>> Regarding Radey's request, it seemed obvious that he wanted to
>> challenge me. In such a case, the onus is on him to do the digging.
> 
> As I have said before, I mostly agree with you regarding bike helmets.
> I just think your standards for proof are different for bike helmets
> than they are for your chosen example, flu shots.
> 

To the best of my knowledge they work in that they reduce the strain on the
NHS during the winter, which is a busy time anyway. Are their vaccines with
much better rates? Absolutely but even with its 50/60% ish rate it’s worth
it.

NHS doesn’t vaccinate anyone but is more targeted, but even so it works at
a population level. In that to use a COVID term it flatteners the curve and
stops hospitals being overwhelmed.

Roger Merriman