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From: Roger Merriman <roger@sarlet.com>
Newsgroups: rec.bicycles.tech
Subject: Re: Helmet efficacy test
Date: 8 Apr 2025 11:33:08 GMT
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Radey Shouman <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
> Roger Merriman <roger@sarlet.com> writes:
> 
>> Radey Shouman <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>> Frank Krygowski <frkrygow@sbcglobal.net> writes:
>>> 
>>>> On 3/31/2025 9:36 PM, John B. wrote:
>>>>> On Mon, 31 Mar 2025 19:54:58 -0500, AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>>>>> 
>>>>>> On 3/31/2025 7:43 PM, John B. wrote:
>>>>>>> On Mon, 31 Mar 2025 18:42:12 -0400, Frank Krygowski
>>>>>>> <frkrygow@sbcglobal.net> wrote:
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> On 3/31/2025 3:10 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
>>>>>>>>> Frank Krygowski <frkrygow@sbcglobal.net> writes:
>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>>> On 3/31/2025 12:39 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> Actually I was talking to Mr. Krygowski.  It seems to me that his
>>>>>>>>>>> standards for studies on flu shots are different to those for bike
>>>>>>>>>>> helmets, and I was curious as to what had convinced him of
>>>>>>>>>>> the efficacy
>>>>>>>>>>> and safety of flu shots.
>>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>>> As I said, there is nationwide, ~ whole population data indicating flu
>>>>>>>>>> vaccines have high effectiveness in preventing infection and/or
>>>>>>>>>> hospitalization. There is no such nationwide data for bike helmets,
>>>>>>>>>> and indeed nationwide data shows no apparent benefit. And there are
>>>>>>>>>> serious weaknesses in many or most helmet promoting studies.
>>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>>> Could you provide a link to that data, and its analysis?
>>>>>>>> Look up cyclist fatality counts since, oh, 1980, the time during which
>>>>>>>> helmets became normalized and popular. There is no significant reduction
>>>>>>>> in fatalities. And I've given links to several articles describing
>>>>>>>> increases in cyclist concussions.
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> The following data is freely available on the Web. It seems strange
>>>>>>> that you are unaware of it.
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> Year   U.S. bicycle fatality/ 100,000 population
>>>>>>> 1980 -- 0.422
>>>>>>> 1990 - 0.345
>>>>>>> 2000 - 0.246
>>>>>>> 2010 - 0.202
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> More Data
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> Year Bicycle Deaths No helmet	%              Deaths Helmet	%	
>>>>>>> 2013	464	62	127	17
>>>>>>> 2014	429	59	118	16
>>>>>>> 2015	439	53	139	17
>>>>>>> 2016	425	50	138	16
>>>>>>> 2017	420	52	126	16
>>>>>>> 2018	525	60	121	14
>>>>>>> 2019	520	61	127	15
>>>>>>> 2020	535	57	168	18
>>>>>>> 2021	599	62	143	15
>>>>>>> 2022	674	62	159	15
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> Data source on that?
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> I personally know of two helmeted riders who were killed in
>>>>>> traffic between 2013 and 2022 so it is certainly not zero
>>>>>> although "what counts?' and 'who's counting?' may be
>>>>>> appropriate questions here.
>>>>> I deliberately left the source out as Frank so often does. See above
>>>>> "Look up cyclist fatality counts since, oh, 1980, the time during
>>>>> which  helmets became normalized and popular. "
>>>> 
>>>> John, I also very often _do_ list the sources or give direct links to
>>>> them. I rarely get comments on them, which leads me to believe that
>>>> neither you nor many others ever bother to read the sources. Again,
>>>> I'm pretty sure I hold the record for data posted in these
>>>> discussions.
>>>> 
>>>> Regarding Radey's request, it seemed obvious that he wanted to
>>>> challenge me. In such a case, the onus is on him to do the digging.
>>> 
>>> As I have said before, I mostly agree with you regarding bike helmets.
>>> I just think your standards for proof are different for bike helmets
>>> than they are for your chosen example, flu shots.
>>> 
>> 
>> To the best of my knowledge they work in that they reduce the strain on the
>> NHS during the winter, which is a busy time anyway. Are their vaccines with
>> much better rates? Absolutely but even with its 50/60% ish rate it’s worth
>> it.
>> 
>> NHS doesn’t vaccinate anyone but is more targeted, but even so it works at
>> a population level. In that to use a COVID term it flatteners the curve and
>> stops hospitals being overwhelmed.
> 
> All vaccines in practice have some rate of detrimental side effects.
> Some are minor, like a sore arm.  Some are life changing, like
> narcolepsy.  A medically ethical decision would balance the chance of
> side effects versus the benefit for an individual patient.
> 
> Deciding to vaccinate one patient because it might benefit others is a
> clear violation of traditional medical ethics.
> 
> In the US, the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986 gave almost
> complete protection from liability for vaccine injuries to
> pharmaceutical companies for vaccines approved for children.  This
> seemed to me a good idea at the time, but in retrospect it did not turn
> out so well.

I assume this about flattening the curve? Certainly with Flu folks offered
it are also bar health workers, are the folks who have the potential to end
up in hospital so there is clear individual benefits ie reducing the risks
to yourself.

With COVID19 or any pandemic if the healthcare is overwhelmed then
preventable conditions can and did cause deaths due to lack of capacity.

Let alone chronic conditions and so on, ie folks suffering etc for much
longer than needs to be.

Roger Merriman