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From: Roger Merriman <roger@sarlet.com>
Newsgroups: rec.bicycles.tech
Subject: Re: General Motors quietly closed the door this week on a
 goal to make only electric vehicles by 2035.
Date: 18 Jul 2025 15:37:37 GMT
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AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
> On 7/17/2025 9:06 AM, Roger Merriman wrote:
>> AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>>> On 7/17/2025 6:29 AM, Roger Merriman wrote:
>>>> Catrike Ryder <Soloman@old.bikers.org> wrote:
>>>>> On Wed, 16 Jul 2025 22:44:32 -0000 (UTC), Beej Jorgensen
>>>>> <beej@beej.us> wrote:
>>>>> 
>>>>>> In article <1ltf7klta5gi28vbqbas3ckg16at9ivk7s@4ax.com>,
>>>>>> Catrike Ryder  <Soloman@old.bikers.org> wrote:
>>>>>>> I just sold my 16 year old, 107K mile Nissan Frontier with a 4 Litre
>>>>>>> V6 for $5K I suspect it will retail for twice that. I wonder what a 16
>>>>>>> year old EV with a depleted battery is worth.
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> Tough to go back 16 years for EVs, but Carfax has a 2015 Tesla Model S
>>>>>> with 170,000 miles for $9,999. A 2014 with 58,000 miles is listed for
>>>>>> $15,970.
>>>>> 
>>>>> I wouldn't touch the 170K Tesla for any price, but the 58K car might
>>>>> have some miles left on the batteries, but I wouldn't buy it.
>>>>> 
>>>>> Here's a 2015 Nissan Frontier with 68,666 miles for $17,995. I'll bet
>>>>> the Tesla cost a lot more new then the Frontier so it's depreciated
>>>>> more. The Frontier also has many more miles in it's future than the
>>>>> Tesla. I liked my 2009 Frontier and I would have kept it for the rest
>>>>> of my remaining life if it had a decent back seat.
>>>>> 
>>>>> --
>>>>> C'est bon
>>>>> Soloman
>>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> With batteries the designs are apparently getting better about degrading,
>>>> it’s quoted that relatively few batteries are available for recycling as
>>>> they are largely still in the cars, remember that this reboot of the
>>>> electric cars is fairly young.
>>>> 
>>>> And indeed the choice of EV’s isn’t great unless all you want is a SUV are
>>>> a few Pickups to be fair but estates for example you have 1 choice though
>>>> believe more are coming.
>>>> 
>>>> Ie it’s a moving target as more choice and the design improves.
>>>> 
>>>> Which is clearly expensive so if manufacturers in some markets can delay or
>>>> rather keep selling old technology that has good profits margins they’d be
>>>> foolish from a economic standpoint not to take that approach which is what
>>>> they are doing.
>>>> 
>>>> Roger Merriman
>>>> 
>>> 
>>> +1
>>> Yes, that is a question with no definitive answer:
>>> 
>>> https://www.motortrend.com/features/how-long-does-a-tesla-battery-last
>>> 
>>> Then again it's a significant expense when/if needed:
>>> https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/tesla-battery-replacement-costs
>>> 
>>> I see Mercedes is testing a race car with modular changeable
>>> (pit stop quick) battery packs, but for many designs,
>>> including Tesla, the battery unit with many cells is a
>>> structural member and as such not trivial to replace.
>>> 
>> 
>> Yup most go for the “skateboard” frame design hence SUV being a good choice
>> for EV’s. The idea of swapping batteries doesn’t seem to realistically take
>> off.
>> 
>> Are some local ish some non electric lines (trains) that companies are
>> experimenting with battery powered trains, apparently works well, clearly
>> an option for some uses, Buses are routinely EV’s now which makes for a
>> nicer experience ie not sitting in a rattling bus!
>> 
>> Re Tesla and their market share, they had almost the entire US EV market so
>> even without Musk and old products line ups and so on, you’d expect the
>> proportion to drop as other companies catch up, as ever the danger of the
>> 1st to market!
>> 
>> For example HMS Dreadnought was ordered after Japan and US which both where
>> building All big gun battleships, but UK industrial production being what
>> it was, HMS Dreadnought was built and commissioned first, and became the
>> name for the new concept.
>> 
>> Roger Merriman
> 
> True for all technologies.
> 
> Just because the physics is workable, general adoption 
> greatly depends on the economics, scale, logistics etc of 
> fuel and service maintenance:
> 
> https://www.stellantis.com/en/news/press-releases/2025/july/stellantis-discontinues-hydrogen-fuel-cell-technology-development-program
> 
Hydrogen has been a bit like the “Year of the Linux desktop/Self driving
cars” always next year!

And more with Hydrogen that for Electric vehicles in most cases Batteries
just make more sense.

I’m told that the fuel stations for Hydrogen are by some degree more
expensive and complex, used to see a few Hydrogen cars locally but haven’t
noticed any for few years now, was a hydrogen fuel station in the vague
area but I’d guess it’s gone?

Roger Merriman