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From: Spalls Hurgenson <spallshurgenson@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.games.action
Subject: Re: Next Fallout Game Coming... Sooner?
Date: Sun, 05 May 2024 10:46:08 -0400
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On Sun, 5 May 2024 03:16:37 -0500, Lane Larson
<lnlarson@stoat.inhoin.edu> wrote:

>Kyonshi wrote:
>> On 4/30/2024 5:53 PM, Spalls Hurgenson wrote:
>>> On Tue, 30 Apr 2024 08:14:07 -0600, "rms"
>>> <rsquiresMOO@MOOflashMOO.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>>> Rumors* have it that - due to the recent success of the TV show -
>>>>> Bethesda is accelerating the release of the next Fallout game.
>>>>> Because if there's anything we all want, it's a Bethesda game even
>>>>> /more/ rushed out of production. After all, it's the bugs and janks
>>>>> that make their games so memorable, right?
>>>>
>>>>    Perhaps they could reuse the same engine to save production time?  Or
>>>> shorten the writing process by replacing writers with a chatbot?
>>>
>>> Procedural generation all the way, baby! Why hand-craft maps, quests,
>>> characters, ANYTHING when you can get a computer to do it?
>>>
>>> I'm sure it will all work out fine. ;-)
>>>
>>> In truth, the rumor that Bethesda is expediting the next Fallout
>>> remains just that: a rumor. But it's definitely something Bethesda
>>> needs to get ahead of. They /don't/ have the best reputation right
>>> now. A lot of their recent in-house productions have been
>>> disappointments; maybe not flops, but seen as a step down from earlier
>>> games. "Fallout 4" was fairly average. "Fallout 76" had an incredibly
>>> rocky launch. "Starfield" failed to impress on almost every level.
>>> They're continually milking "Skyrim". They're breaking mods. Their
>>> trying to grift off the modder's hard work. They don't have anything
>>> exciting in the pipeline.
>>>
>>> Their PR team needs to get out there and issue the usual platitudes:
>>> 'of course we aren't going to rush out the next game. We're dedicated
>>> to creating quality products. We're not simply chasing the next
>>> popular trend. Other other IPs remain important to us.' The usual
>>> schtick; say a lot without saying anything. That it's been several
>>> days and Bethesda has remained silent does not speak well of their
>>> management.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>> 
>> Bethesda is in the slow downward spiral of death right now. It's gonna 
>> take a few years longer, but they will become irrelevant, their IP will 
>> get sold to a different company founded by one of the original people of 
>> whatever, and then stuff is gonna get released that's actually decent to 
>> good again.
>
>Don't you think they are making bank off of Elder Scrolls Online?

I don't know if Bethesda is in a death spiral. I think it is
struggling, perhaps not financially but instead in an attempt to
remain relevant. "Starfield" was, at least in regards to expectations,
something of a flop. It was hoped to be the next "Skyrim"; a massive
hit that would not only fund the company for decades, but open up an
entirely new IP. But it looks like it may be Bethesda's "Mass Effect:
Andromeda".

Elder Scrolls Online has been financially successful - it's earned the
company $2 billion USD in the decade it's been active. It is
definitely one of the more popular MMORPGs, with ~200,000 active daily
users. But that number isn't really growing. Fallout 76 - despite some
recent spikes due to the popularity of the TV show - is doing much
worse, with only a quarter that number of active users.

ESO brings in good money but that's still only around $200 million USD
per year. Server costs, support personnel, and on-going development
eat into that. In the end, it's the equivalent profits of one hit game
per year for the company. It's nice to have - it gives Bethesda a nice
solid financial base - but I wouldn't say it's 'making bank'. Bethesda
isn't outputting a lot of other games, and a number of their more
recent titles haven't been as succesful as they'd hope. ESO helps mask
those wounds, but it isn't like Valve's money from Steam (or Epic's
from Fortnite), which allows them to ignore pretty much everything
else.

And, like I said, ESO isn't growing... and it's ten years old.