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On 5/25/24 11:47, Andrew wrote:
> Newyana2 wrote on Sat, 25 May 2024 10:45:00 -0400 :
> 
>>      The NHTSA seems to be responsible for the gov't record-keeping
>> about traffic accidents. All I found from them was mixed data, mainly
>> about deaths.
> 
> I'm a well-trained scientist.
> 
> I base my assessments on facts.
> While most people (who are not scientists) simply guess at everything.
> 
> Don't look at second-order effects of accidents until you've ascertained
> first-order effects, since deaths are a function of many more things.
> 
> It's a myth that cellphone use caused the accident rate to rise in the USA
> 
> The only place that myth exists is in people's minds when they don't think.
> However, even I would have *thought* accident rates would have skyrocketed.
> 
> They didn't.
> Not in the USA anyway (where accurate records have been kept for decades).
> 
> The rate not only didn't skyrocket, it barely changed.
> 
> And what changed was it slowly trended down, down, down.
> That's just a fact.
> 
> Only fools disagree with facts (that's why they're fools).
> 
> The main proponents of the myth are those with money to gain,
> namely (a) injury lawyers, (b) insurance companies & (c) ticketing police.
> 
> In the accurate US Census Bureau records, what do you see happening to the
> accident rate before, during and after the meteoric rise in cellphone
> ownership in the United States?
> <https://www.google.com/search?q=us+census+accident+rate+statistics+by+year>
> 
> What do you see?
> <https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/2010/compendia/statab/130ed/tables/11s1102.pdf>
> 
> Look at first-order effects, i.e., the accident rate per year.
>   <https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/yearly-snapshot>
> 
> What do you see happening to the rate during skyrocketing cellphone days?
> <https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/historical-fatality-trends/deaths-and-rates/>
> 
> HINT: US Accident rates trending down were wholly unaffected by cellphones.


None of the above proves that cell-phone use while drivig is not 
extremely dangerous or that the part of accidents caused by cell phone 
use or by other distracting devices is not increasing with increasing 
cellphone use. BTW, how many accident participants will voluntarily 
offer up the fact that they'd been on the phone just before? Right, so 
much for statistics which according to one prof. "is the science whereby 
one can prove anything, or its exact opposite".

A few years ago I had a near head-on collision (missed BY INCHES) with a 
closure rate of well over 250 km/h and the other driver was a woman 
(sole occupant in that car with phone in hand) who had deviated 
completely into my single lane from a point about 200 feet in front of 
me, try THAT once for a hard opinion-alignment! Also a few years ago I 
was stopped at a construction site by a guy wavig down traffic. While 
stopped I thought I might as well do a quick call home. Next thing I 
know he's jumping up and down waving me to get moving again, I had not 
noticed the change in time. Before anyone thinks I'm a bad driver I 
might mention that I've been driving since age 13 and have logged well 
over a million miles on roads alone all without a single accident 
(mostly because my driving has become defensive over time).

Next time anyone hangs up after having used a phone while driving (and I 
affirm that beyond freeing one's hands bluetooth accomplishes ABSOLUTELY 
NOTHING in this respect) try to remember road/traffic details from the 
previous few minutes without drawing a complete blank. You can cheat, 
but when alone and looking at yourself in the mirror you'll remember the 
astounding revelation and it will change your habbits.