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From: Paul S Person <psperson@old.netcom.invalid>
Newsgroups: rec.arts.sf.written
Subject: Re: "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2025 08:35:06 -0800
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On Thu, 13 Feb 2025 17:19:14 -0000 (UTC), jdnicoll@panix.com (James
Nicoll) wrote:

>In article <608sqjle4440ka7d2tnb3b8n1hjam30skt@4ax.com>,
>Paul S Person  <psperson@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 22:31:04 +0100, D <nospam@example.net> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>
>>>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 11:28:09 +0100, D <nospam@example.net> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Tue, 11 Feb 2025, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On 2/11/2025 5:12 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>>>>> "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go=
 up"
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> =
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-
>>>>>>> asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> "Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space
>>Telescope to
>>>>>>> study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less
>>than eight
>>>>>>> years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the =
asteroid
>>>>>>> was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our =
planet have
>>>>>>> increased slightly since then, according to the European Space =
Agency."
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> =93The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it =
currently
>>>>>>> carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually=
 reaches
>>>>>>> this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the
>>asteroid will
>>>>>>> most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with monitoring =
its
>>>>>>> physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the
>>probability of a
>>>>>>> crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.=94
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> I don't see any wolf crying.  They are refining their data to
>>improve their
>>>>>> accuracy.
>>>>>
>>>>> This would be my interpretation. Plenty of time left, they are =
keeping an
>>>>> eye on it. Will it hit? If not, no problem. If yes, where will it =
hit? If
>>>>> random ocean, no problem. If not random ocean, maybe little bit =
problem.
>>>>
>>>> I suggest watching /Sudden Impact/ to get an idea of what a chunk of
>>>> space rock hitting an ocean can do.
>>>>
>>>
>>>I thought you smart enough not to assume random ocean meant 10 meters=20
>>>outside new york.
>>>
>>>Tsunami schnunami, we've dealth with that and survived. If we have a=20
>>>couple of years advance warning we're good to go.
>>
>>First, as has been pointed out to me, the film I meant to cite was
>>/Deep Impact/.
>>
>>Second, it is not "10 meters off New York".
>>
>>Third, we had a year. We were /not/ good to go.
>>
>>But I have also read a post with actual figures in it, so apparently
>>the film exaggerated things a bit.
>
>My numbers were for a dinky 8 MT impact, whereas Deep Impact involved
>a rock the size of Everest. Whole different game.

That's the one that hit the ocean, not the much larger planet-killer
to come, right?

So, what do the formulae show for the /Deep Impact/ ocean strike?

>Although in retrospect, I'd expect more re-entering ejecta than DI
>featured. The KT impact may have left little bits of charred dino-
>saur on the Moon.=20
--=20
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"