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Path: ...!eternal-september.org!feeder3.eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail From: AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org> Newsgroups: rec.bicycles.tech Subject: Re: Some traffic stats Date: Thu, 14 Mar 2024 07:17:43 -0500 Organization: Yellow Jersey, Ltd. Lines: 102 Message-ID: <usupt7$1jeto$1@dont-email.me> References: <ussh2h$10uhk$1@dont-email.me> <ussvnf$142oh$1@dont-email.me> <ust0vb$1490h$2@dont-email.me> <ustspf$1dksi$1@dont-email.me> <mi25vipm9o19j1sgqhqlkbfnfk6q8s1t4b@4ax.com> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Injection-Date: Thu, 14 Mar 2024 12:17:43 -0000 (UTC) Injection-Info: dont-email.me; posting-host="9385debcd740697bc857b889c29b06cb"; logging-data="1686456"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@eternal-september.org"; posting-account="U2FsdGVkX1/1+KpXkRQyeotLzWKai8vN" User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird Cancel-Lock: sha1:Iv0YGeZjv8HZdGDNxr4aS83ED78= Content-Language: en-US In-Reply-To: <mi25vipm9o19j1sgqhqlkbfnfk6q8s1t4b@4ax.com> Bytes: 5845 On 3/14/2024 12:53 AM, Jeff Liebermann wrote: > On Thu, 14 Mar 2024 00:00:45 -0400, Frank Krygowski > <frkrygow@sbcglobal.net> wrote: > >> On 3/13/2024 4:06 PM, Zen Cycle wrote: >>> On 3/13/2024 3:44 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote: >>>> On 3/13/2024 11:34 AM, AMuzi wrote: >>>>> https://www.cityofmadison.com/police/newsroom/incidentreports/incident.cfm?id=30855 >>>> >>>> From that site: >>>> >>>> * On average, every day, twenty pedestrians are killed by a moving >>>> vehicle in the United States. >>>> >>>> * Approximately 76,000 pedestrians and 47,000 bicyclists are injured >>>> in roadway crashes annually in the United States. >>>> >>>> I'll note that the figures for pedestrians are far worse than for >>>> bicyclists. Yet the general public thinks of bicycling as much more >>>> dangerous than walking. >>> >>> I think if you compare injuries per participants or injuries per miles >>> traveled, you'll see they're probably correct. >> >> That's far from certain. >> >> Powell et. al., “Injury Rates from Walking, Gardening, Weightlifting, >> Outdoor Bicycling and Aerobics”, Medicine & Science in Sports & >> Exercise, 1998, Vol. 30 pp. 1246-9 polled over 5000 people who had >> chosen at least one of those activities for exercise. One question was >> whether the participant had incurred an injury during the previous month. >> >> The results: >> Weightlifting: 2.4% of participants injured >> Gardening or yard work: 1.6% >> Aerobic Dance: 1.4% >> Walking for exercise: 1.4% >> Outdoor bicycling: 0.9% > > Such surveys require a control group to be valid. I suspect that if > someone was able to do NOTHING for one month, they would still have > been involved in some kind of accident. > >> And while injuries =/= fatalities, Dr. John Pucher of Rutgers has >> published (in "Making Walking and Cycling Safer: Lessons from Europe") >> an estimate from U.S. data that bicyclists suffer 109 fatalities per >> billion km ridden. Pedestrians suffer 362 fatalities per billion km, >> three times as bad! >> >> Pucher's number works out to 5.7 million miles ridden per fatality for >> cyclists, 1.7 million miles walked per fatality for pedestrians. And >> Pucher's later work, as well as other sources, show he greatly >> overstated the bicycling risk. It's now widely accepted that Americans >> ride over ten million miles between fatalities. > > Americans ride over 10 million miles between fatalities? Most > Americans don't ride after their first fatality. The value of > exercise after death has been greatly overrated. > >> British data for decades has consistently found more pedestrian >> fatalities per mile traveled than bicycling fatalities per mile. AFAIK, >> there have been only a couple years in the past 20 where the reverse was >> true. I've also seen Australian data showing the same result. >> >> In any case, for most Americans the far bigger danger is sitting on the >> couch. > > If someone asked you "what is your favorite sport and how many times > have you been injured in the previous month", would you produce an > accurate number, or would you minimize the number of injuries? My > past experience working with such surveys suggests that most people > would not admit to an injury. I also find it odd that the survey > would ask if "the participant had incurred an injury" instead of > asking how many injuries. Why only one month? Were they worried that > if they extended the time period to one year, a much larger percentage > would probably have been injured at least once. Also, was the month > the same for everyone in the survey? I suspect not or the question > would have been phrased differently. For cycling, if they selected a > month which has a high accident rate, typically when everyone is > cycling, the survey results would have been very different had they > selected a month with a low accident rate. Time of day when riding > would also have had a huge effect on the accident rate. Were riders > who died included in the survey? Traditionally, the dead do not > answer survey questions. How far did they ride in the month of the > survey? If it was rather long distances, the chances of having an > accident would be much higher than if they rode short distances. > > "I suspect that if > someone was able to do NOTHING for one month, they would still have > been involved in some kind of accident." > https://www.cpsc.gov/s3fs-public/Pool-or-Spa-Submersion-Estimated-Nonfatal-Drowning-Injuries-and-Reported-Drownings-2023-Report.pdf?VersionId=aKdoue0fOpavlEc1E6FBLzYzIAKO8lyW -- Andrew Muzi am@yellowjersey.org Open every day since 1 April, 1971