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From: Frank Krygowski <frkrygow@sbcglobal.net>
Newsgroups: rec.bicycles.tech
Subject: Re: Commuter innovation
Date: Wed, 3 Apr 2024 15:19:00 -0400
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On 4/2/2024 1:48 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
> On Tue, 2 Apr 2024 11:33:17 -0400, Frank Krygowski
> <frkrygow@sbcglobal.net> wrote:
> 
>> Check out the article "DC Cycling, Bike Lane Usage Decline Dramatically"
>> at
>> https://saveconnecticutave.org/f/dc-cycling-bike-lane-usage-decline-dramatically
> 
> The bicycle traffic graph of "L Street, NW" plots "Peak Hour Bike
> Count".  As I read it, that's the number of bicycles that pass, in one
> hour, when bicycle traffic is at it's peak for the day, week, month or
> year, at one intersection.  Since there's no link to the source of the
> data[1] and assuming my interpretation is correct, that seems like a
> rather strange way to measure bicycle lane use.
> 
> The graph might also be a case of coincidence versus causation.  In
> 2017, there was a large unexplained drop in bicycle lane use, for no
> obvious reason.  For all I know, it could have been caused by a
> construction project, that diverted traffic to the adjacent "M
> Street".  Similarly, the drop in 2020 thru 2023 might be related to
> the Covid pandemic and it's change from commuting to working from
> home.
> 
> Hint:  If your conclusions are based on statistical data, kindly
> provide the original source.
> 
> [1] "Source: DDOT" is not a good source:
> <https://ddot.dc.gov>
> Searching the site for "Peak Hour Bike Count" found nothing.

Your objection is noted. But I don't think it counters the fact that 
bike facilities do not normally generate huge increases in bike mode 
share, as promised. Locally, I've seen zero evidence of increase - 
although there are admittedly few bike lanes here. But for years I've 
observed and occasionally used bike lanes in two nearby cities I 
frequently visit. I almost never see other cyclists using them. And one 
major city a bit more distant has lots of bike lanes, but IME they 
always appear to be empty.

Sometimes there are surges in bike mode share. Portland was famous for 
that; but while it lasted for years, the bicycling fashion seems to have 
passed. See 
https://bikeportland.org/2023/03/15/city-counts-reveal-data-behind-portlands-precipitous-drop-in-cycling-371407

Pittsburgh currently has lots of visible cyclists, especially in its 
University area. But data now unavailable on the web once made clear 
that the surge in bike use happened before, not after, the surge in bike 
facility construction. We'll see how long that surge lasts.

As I've mentioned many times, the U.S. probably has added thousands of 
miles of bike facilities in the past 15 years. But bike mode share is 
still stuck way down below one percent.

We've "built it" in city after city. Despite the _Field of Dreams_ 
fantasies, they haven't come.

-- 
- Frank Krygowski