Deutsch English Français Italiano |
<v04aje$im3s$1@dont-email.me> View for Bookmarking (what is this?) Look up another Usenet article |
Path: ...!news.mixmin.net!proxad.net!feeder1-2.proxad.net!usenet-fr.net!news.gegeweb.eu!gegeweb.org!nntp.terraraq.uk!nntp-feed.chiark.greenend.org.uk!ewrotcd!news.eyrie.org!beagle.ediacara.org!.POSTED.beagle.ediacara.org!not-for-mail From: RonO <rokimoto@cox.net> Newsgroups: talk.origins Subject: Re: Global warming? Date: Sun, 21 Apr 2024 19:22:06 -0500 Organization: A noiseless patient Spider Lines: 48 Sender: to%beagle.ediacara.org Approved: moderator@beagle.ediacara.org Message-ID: <v04aje$im3s$1@dont-email.me> References: <v01h71$3tf30$1@dont-email.me> <v03slo$g0cj$1@dont-email.me> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Injection-Info: beagle.ediacara.org; posting-host="beagle.ediacara.org:3.132.105.89"; logging-data="69563"; mail-complaints-to="usenet@beagle.ediacara.org" User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird To: talk-origins@moderators.isc.org Cancel-Lock: sha1:xAPiYjkDMbP8X7lRyWOrQHqP71M= Return-Path: <news@eternal-september.org> X-Original-To: talk-origins@ediacara.org Delivered-To: talk-origins@ediacara.org id 1067022976C; Sun, 21 Apr 2024 20:21:52 -0400 (EDT) by beagle.ediacara.org (Postfix) with ESMTP id E0E40229758 for <talk-origins@ediacara.org>; Sun, 21 Apr 2024 20:21:49 -0400 (EDT) id 454E15DC2C; Mon, 22 Apr 2024 00:22:10 +0000 (UTC) Delivered-To: talk-origins@moderators.isc.org by mod-relay-1.kamens.us (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 246585DC29 for <talk-origins@moderators.isc.org>; Mon, 22 Apr 2024 00:22:10 +0000 (UTC) id 18ACBDC01CA; Mon, 22 Apr 2024 02:22:08 +0200 (CEST) X-Injection-Date: Mon, 22 Apr 2024 02:22:07 +0200 (CEST) Content-Language: en-US X-Auth-Sender: U2FsdGVkX1+kIV8BjTQMl3W0FdGx7A4ZkLhIph7s4DY= In-Reply-To: <v03slo$g0cj$1@dont-email.me> Bytes: 3942 On 4/21/2024 3:23 PM, William Hyde wrote: > RonO wrote: >> https://www.washington.edu/news/2024/04/17/ice-age-climate-analysis-reduces-worst-case-warming-expected-from-rising-co2/ >> >> https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk9461 >> >> These climate scientists looked at the carbon dioxide level and >> temperature shifts during the last ice age, and they are claiming that >> CO2 levels may not produce the temperatures that others are claiming. > > > For technical reasons the estimated warming from a given CO2 increase > has a very long tail on the positive side. It's even more skewed than > the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution (images available by search). > > As a result, when this kind of statistics was first done around the turn > of the century, it was impossible to rule out an increase of 10.5 > degrees for a doubling with 95% confidence. > > Since nobody actually believes that a ten degree warming for a doubling > is possible, work began on more complex statistics, generally Baysian, > to see if the result held up. I was a co-author on one of those in > which we found the 95% limit to be about six degrees. Since that time > it has fallen further. > > The original naive estimate of 1.5-4.5 from the late 70s still seems to > be reasonable. For that matter the estimates of Svante Arrhenius from > the 1890s seem to be good. > > >> >> The last warm interval got warmer than the current interval, but CO2 >> wasn't the issue. Under current conditions they think that >> temperatures will not get to the levels that have been predicted, so >> more ice may not melt than last time >> >> Someone should start working on the possiblity that we may delay the >> next cold period. That might melt as much ice as last time, and be >> much worse for arctic biology. There was a group that was predicting >> that CO2 could delay and even cause a skipping of the next cold >> period That might be the biggest worry at this time. > > So you didn't read my previous reply? > > William Hyde > >