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From: Physfitfreak <physfitfreak@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: sci.physics
Subject: Re: What Made My Day Today? :-)
Date: Sun, 26 May 2024 16:31:49 -0500
Organization: Modern Human
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Ok, ... The realities have begun to seep out in this strange struggle.

Looks like the incident with Iran's President and Foreign Minister has 
been a calculated one. They had caused the failure in seizing the 
opportunities offered by China to be part of their long-term future 
supplier of oil. China preferred the independent Iran over Saudi Arabia, 
but Raisi's administration proved to be unresponsive to China's efforts.

This was the biggest issue for this administration to deal with, because 
Iran's decision-making structure itself is divided over such long-term 
futures. About half of them, the traditional West-leaning thinkers (I'm 
going to call them Conservatives although that's not how they're named 
in Iran), think that Iran is safer with major relations with known and 
well-studied culprit superpowers than with the new inexperienced China. 
The other half, the risk-takers (I'll call them Progressives, again 
despite they being called in Iran quite differently), think exactly the 
opposite.

This administration began work _seemingly_ with the intention to satisfy 
the Progressives and people backing them. That's how they won the 
elections. All my folks in Iran, practically anyone I'm still in touch 
with, had changed side for that and voted for Raisi's admin exactly for 
the purpose of cutting ties with Nazis and Global Pests. But in action, 
this admin proved they were serving the Conservative side in Iran. 
Result is that China went to their second option, the Saudis, and began 
creating that "Oil City" (or whatever they call it) with them, and 
placed their remaining eggs as far as oil was concerned inside that 
basket. This admin _let_ the chance go.

When the Progressives realized that the chance was gone, they got rid of 
the culprits that had fooled them. Probably a tiny little bomb somewhere 
inside the helicopter where the pilots were. Too little to cause 
destruction of the helicopter, but enough to cause the pilots to lose 
the controls for a few seconds.

Conservatives aren't and weren't that fool to have decided to act that 
way regarding China's offer. Their logic is like, "Let's have Saudi 
Arabia test China, not Iran." This has two important advantages of 
course. It keeps Iran safe from unknown future behavior of China. And it 
provides several steps for Saudi Arabia to walk into that new pathway, 
_away_ from Nazis and Global Pests. So this type of thinking points to a 
quite _regional_ way of seeing the future, not a way just for Iran. It 
might be the correct view too. And they _did_ act according to that view 
also.

But Progressives want to leave Nazis and Global Pests behind and 
forever, with _any_ risk or even cost involved. They wanted to get what 
China had offered to Iran.

China's need for oil is huge. Russia alone, which has sold even the 
future 30 years of its oil to China, cannot and couldn't satisfy the 
demand. China needed more, and Iranian Progressives wanted to get the 
contracts for the remaining Chinese demands for oil. They did everything 
for that, even changed sides and voted for such promises. But Raisis 
team promised that and then slowly let it go to Saudis, not Iran. 
Essentially doing exactly what the Conservative camp wanted.

But what good would a little bomb the size of a cigarette lighter do? It 
looks, at first, to be doing nothing. But without doubt, it also talks 
to the Conservative side. "You fool the Iranians, you die!"

So next time, for important Iranian issues, Conservatives will know in 
advance that it would be their lives if they commit to such 
Machiavellian methods and intrigues.

You can do that all the time to people in the USA and Europe, and get 
away with them too. But in Iran, fooling people in such deceptive ways 
costs your life.

That's what happened.

Note that neither deals with China, nor complete loss of such 
opportunities, are totally over for Iran. In fact Iranians are now busy 
to place their own men in there to push Iran towards increasing 
relations with China. The big deal has now gone to Saudi Arabia, but the 
rest of opportunities are there to jump on.

Nazis and Global Pests have always been better for the Conservatives in 
Iran. This isn't anything new. They know each other very well. They have 
decades and decades of experience in that. Both sides. Nothing is 
totally unknown about them. But Iranians want more, cause they're not 
happy. It doesn't provide enough for them. And as you see, they'll 
literally kill you if you keep blocking them while saying otherwise.