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From: Zen Cycle <funkmaster@hotmail.com>
Newsgroups: rec.bicycles.tech
Subject: Re: Cycling editorial
Date: Thu, 6 Jun 2024 16:41:16 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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On 6/6/2024 1:03 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
> On Thu, 6 Jun 2024 07:37:31 -0400, Zen Cycle <funkmaster@hotmail.com>
> wrote:
> 
>> On 6/5/2024 9:31 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
>>> On Wed, 05 Jun 2024 23:15:26 GMT, Tom Kunich <cyclintom@yahoo.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Your opinion of HP might very well be true. But because the market tracks inflation, today HP is worth 3 times what it was in 2019. This means that they have been holding their value. I hope you put some of your money in their stock.
>>>
>>> In 2019, HP stock was worth about $20.  Today, it's worth about $35.
>>> That's a net increase of  35 / 20 = 1.75  times in the past 5 years.
>>> If HP was really "worth 3 times what it was in 2019", then it should
>>> now be selling for $60/share.
>>>
>>>
>>
>> What I _should_ have done was leave my Agilent shares alone. As I
>> mentioned previously, HP is a shell of its former self. When the Agilent
>> split happened, all my HP were converted to Agilent 1:1, IIRC the shares
>> were in the $25 range at the time. We weren't given a choice for the
>> options, but were asked of we wanted to keep owned-shares of HP or
>> convert them. Given my distaste for what the Fiorina regime did to HP, I
>> chose to convert. Finally, ~15 years after I had been laid off, I was in
>> a review with my financial planner and we noted the lackluster
>> performance of Agilent, so I sold it all and invested in a mutual fund.
>>
>> Converting everything to agilent was a good move, selling it all
>> later....Bad move.
>>
>>  From 2019 on, Agilent has been performing brilliantly, going from ~
>> $25/share when I sold to the mid 100's ($133 as of this message). HP is
>> still only in the $30 range. Given over 20 years of inflation I would
>> have lost money if I left any in HP. Still, the mutual fund is doing
>> well and I've made reasonable gains - well more than if I left it in HP,
>> but not as well as if I had left it in Agilent.
> 
> Thanks for the details.  I don't want to tell my tale of stock market
> woe.  I lost badly in the "black Monday" crash in 1987 and repeated
> the mistake (to a lesser degree) with the dot-com bubble in 2000.  I
> did well in the 1990's but stayed in the market too long.  Since then,
> I've been risk averse and have avoided any investments in the stock
> market.  Avoiding the stock market may soon turn into another mistake
> as my savings are rapidly being eroded by inflation.  It's not a
> pretty picture, but at least I have no debt and I have enough cash to
> survive.

It's a guessing game for the vast majority of casual investors. In some 
cases little better than a casino.

> 
> 

-- 
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