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From: The Last Doctor <mike@xenocyte.com>
Newsgroups: rec.arts.drwho,uk.media.tv.sf.drwho
Subject: Re: Doctor Who: RTD in the Radio Times.
Date: Mon, 17 Jun 2024 20:46:48 -0000 (UTC)
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Blueshirt <blueshirt@indigo.news> wrote:
> The True Doctor wrote:
>> 
>> Most people giving the episode 9 or 10 probably haven't
>> watched it either, and that takes away 67.5% of the viewers
>> along with another 5.5% thus your estimate doesn't hold water.
>> Only 17% of your 2 million actually watched the episode for
>> more than 10 seconds, ie. 340,000 and no more world wide.
>> That's closer to Doomcocks figure but doesn't take into
>> account the fact than when Whittaker finished her run she was
>> only getting 100,000 views on BBC America.
>> 
>> A better worldwide estimate would be 75,000. 50,000 in the US
>> and Canada and 25,000 elsewhere since it's not being shown on
>> Disney+ in either the UK or Republic of Ireland.
>> 
>> And that still doesn't tell us how many people watched each
>> episode all the way through from start to end. 300 maybe?
>> Doctor Whoke doesn't represent British culture as the
>> Americans and foreigners see it so that is probably a fair
>> estimate.
>> 
>> Then you need to ask how many people actually watched the
>> episode all the way through in the UK? Most of them probably
>> switched out before the episode ended or tuned in at the end
>> to watch the football. At best I would say only 200,000, most
>> likely only 20,000.
> 
> Most fans of a TV show do not switch it off after twenty
> seconds... you are constantly inventing false narratives to back
> up your delusional figures. Are the official ratings not low
> enough for you?
> 
>> Let Disney+ publish their numbers along with total duration
>> viewed and let the BBC do the same, otherwise my and
>> Doomcock's estimates stick. Doomcock after all said most
>> viewers tuned out for various reasons before each episode
>> ended.
> 
> How could anyone, apart from Disney, know that somebody gave up
> on an episode of Doctor Who before the end? It's not possible
> for anyone to know this sort of thing, unless they have access
> to official Disney streaming data, which they themselves rarely
> even publish!!! But, a guy on the internet KNOWS!
> 
> Er, okay...
> 
> Methinks there is going to be some major goal-post shifting
> going on if Disney extend their partnership with the BBC for
> more seasons of Doctor Who...
> 
> (I will bookmark your posts so that we can revisit this
> discussion if/when that scenario happens!)
> 

I see Aggie still doesn’t accept how the BARB ratings work. By statistical
extrapolation from their representative set of 7,000 households (recently
expanded from 6,000 as the continuing universal decline in overall viewing
combined with the continued expansion of available channels and consumption
methods requires a larger sample to maintain its validity) BARB give an
overnight rating for a show, eg 2 million for Doctor Who. If the episode is
45 minutes long that means that they are actually reporting 90 million
viewer minutes, and dividing it by the length of the programme to reach
their total of 2m viewers. If Aggie’s belief that only 20,000 watched from
end to end was true, then if on average everyone else watched only 15
minutes that would mean 6 million people all tuned in for 15 minutes each.
If it was only 5 minutes, 18 million people. Etc. Logically it seems much
more likely that 90% or more of the viewers watched the whole thing than
that millions upon millions tuned in briefly by accident then turned away
again.

As for his other conjecture that people go to iMDB just to rate a programme
highly that they don’t watch or care about - that’s just deluded nonsense.
The opposite is demonstrably true - the “anti woke” will review bomb any
show with a female lead or gay themes or a diverse cast - without ever
watching it.

But why on earth would anyone bother to try to sway things the other way?
It just doesn’t seem to align with human nature.

In any case it’s an irrelevancy - if the same number of people not from the
U.K. as from the U.K. are reviewing on iMDB, then most likely the same
portion of them (whatever they rate it and whether they watch or not) are
from each demographic.

On the whole I think my finger-in-the-air view that about the same number
of people are watching worldwide on Disney+ as in the U.K. , based on how
many people around the world are voting on iMDB, seems valid. (In fact I’m
probably understating the Disney audience a bit as people from non English
speaking territories probably engage less with iMDB than those from English
speaking territories, but I’m disregarding that in the same way that I’m
not going to make a guess as to how many of the low ballers didn’t watch
the show).

And if that’s the case then since we know the U.K. ratings to be
independent and statistically sound, then there are an average of 2 million
Disney+ viewers on the opening weekend for episode 7.

Going back to episode 1 and 2, the consolidated U.K. audience of 4m for Ep
1 generated 2,700 UK reviews and 4,500 elsewhere which suggests that the
Disney audience builds up more than the U.K. one over time - which would
give a total Disney+ audience of around 6.6m - which from 150m global
paying or live trial subscribers (because that’s how the number is
published no matter what Aggie claims. We know this because the number has
gone down recently) is a healthy number, one in 25 subscribers fancying a
look at the show seems fair.

For Ep 2, UK audience 3.9m. 2.6k UK reviewers - 4.7m others. Possible
Disney audience 7m.

For Ep 3, UK audience 3.6m. 2.4K UK reviewers (oh look, there really does
seem to be a fair correlation between reported viewers and iMDB reviews!) -
3.9m others. Possible Disney audience 5.8m.

For Ep 4, UK audience 4m. 2.3k UK reviewers. 3.6m others. Possible Disney
audience 6.2m.

For Ep 5, UK audience 3.4m. 1.9k UK reviewers. 3k others. Possible Disney
audience 5.4m.

Yes, these are largely guesswork, but with a reasonably sound objective
basis at least at a ballpark level. That the number of iMDB viewers from
the U.K. looks to be broadly proportional to the viewership seems clear.
That the number of iMDB reviewers would be similarly proportional to
viewers around the world seems like a reasonable conjecture. (Even if twice
as many American viewers as Brits engage - and that seems excessive - the
worldwide numbers would only halve. They wouldn’t drop from millions to
hundreds.)

They aren’t just figures pulled out of the arse as Aggie’s and Doomcock’s
seem to be.

-- 
“Most of the Universe is knackered, babes.”  - The Doctor