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From: William Hyde <wthyde1953@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: whenwhen Skye was a sub-tropical paradise with warm shallow seas
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 13:56:02 -0400
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Bob Casanova wrote:
> On Wed, 24 Jul 2024 19:41:41 -0700, the following appeared
> in talk.origins, posted by John Harshman
> <john.harshman@gmail.com>:
> 
>> On 7/24/24 4:20 PM, erik simpson wrote:
>>> On 7/24/24 3:52 PM, Bob Casanova wrote:
>>>> On Wed, 24 Jul 2024 15:35:12 -0600, the following appeared
>>>> in talk.origins, posted by André G. Isaak
>>>> <agisaak@gm.invalid>:
>>>>
>>>>> On 2024-07-24 15:00, burkhard wrote:
>>>>>> It isn't any longer now, that much I can tell you - though we braced
>>>>>> the
>>>>>> cold and went for a swim yesterday. Not exactly Skye, though we can see
>>>>>> it from where we are (Malaig)
>>>>>
>>>>> I envy you. It was 37° C here yesterday.
>>>>>
>>>> Oooh, a low-temp sauna! ;-)
>>>>
>>>> It's varied form 42C to 47C (daytime highs) here this month,
>>>> with dew points from -5C to 23C. A "dry heat" it's not, at
>>>> this time of year. :-(
>>>>>
>>> When it gets to that in Skye, global warming won't be deniable by anybody.
>>>
>> You underestimate the abilities of some people to deny. Incidentally,
>> Sunday and Monday were the two hottest days in recorded history (world
>> average).
>>
> "Recorded history" dating back...200 years?

The instrumental record does not go back that far in the sense of global 
coverage,  though isolated areas do have longer records - but there is 
then the question of accuracy, reliability, and so forth.

We know the world is much warmer than in 1824 from a mass of data, but 
temperature records form a small part of this.

In later times when we have more measurements, but still not global 
coverage, a lot can be done with statistical methods, but the fewer and 
worse distributed the observations, the larger the error bars.

How far in the past we have a global temperature estimate accurate to 
within .2C is a question to which I don't have an answer.  I would 
suspect no less than 50 years or so, and possibly a hundred.

The good news for me is that this summer I'm not coughing up bits of 
tree.  Of course, that is largely because so much of the susceptible 
area is still ash from last year.  But I'll take all the small victories 
I can get.


William Hyde