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From: Torbjorn Lindgren <tl@none.invalid>
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Subject: Re: =?UTF-8?Q?Re=3A_=E2=80=9CDid_nobody_stop_to_think_what_might_happen?=
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Date: Wed, 28 Aug 2024 12:29:36 -0000 (UTC)
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Cryptoengineer  <petertrei@gmail.com> wrote:
>On 8/27/2024 1:40 PM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>> Paul S Person <psperson@old.netcom.invalid> writes:
>>> On Mon, 26 Aug 2024 16:34:21 GMT, scott@slp53.sl.home (Scott Lurndal)
>>> wrote:
>>>> The still use Soviet Soyuz boosters.
>>>>
>>>> One might note that Putin desires the return of the Sovyetky Soyuz.
>>>
>>> They may use them (and lose them) but do they understand them well
>>> enough to pair their spacecraft with ours?
>> 
>> They routinely dock with the international space station, so the
>> answer is yes.
>
>The US and the USSR jointly agreed to use a compatible docking
>port over 50 years ago - remember Apollo-Soyuz in 1975? Its still
>in use.
>
>The Soyuz launcher, btw, is one of the most reliable rockets ever
>built. There have been over 1700 launches.

It kind of varies depending on variant. Soyuz-FG was pretty good, 70
launches with just one failure but Soyuz-U was less so, a whopping 786
launches but also 22 failures (that they acknowledge!).

And the record for the current version, Soyuz 2, is worse than U...
One source gives: 160 orbital plus 1 suborbital, with 4 full failures
and 2 partial.
Another say: 178 total launches, with 7 full or partial failures,
sources differ.

The corresponding statistics for the current version of Falcon 9,
Block 5 is: 311 orbital launches, 1 failure (Starlink 9-3), no partial
failures. That's a failure rate more than an order of magnitude lower
than Soyuz 2's record! and until very recently it 300+ launches with NO
failures.

And if we take the entire programs (all Soyuz vs all Falcon 9 & Falcon
Heavy) it's a convincing "win" for SpaceX (by a factor of roughly 2 to
3). But yes, the Soyuz as a whole it probably deserves the "one of"
even if the Soyuz 2 doesn't, though mostly through sheer numbers
launched during the Soviet era.

Which is why even before Russias invasion of Ukraine the insurance
premium for Falcon 9 was noticeably lower than that for Soyuz, whether
launched from Russia (lots of recent failures) or by ESA (no faiures
but only got up to 9 launches AFAIK).