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From: RonO <rokimoto557@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: California Dairy herds positive for the dairy virus
Date: Mon, 16 Sep 2024 20:18:12 -0500
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On 9/14/2024 8:27 PM, RonO wrote:
> On 9/14/2024 6:12 PM, x wrote:
>> On 9/14/24 15:23, RonO wrote:
>>> On 9/12/2024 11:59 AM, RonO wrote:
>>>> On 9/11/2024 12:05 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>> On 9/8/2024 6:55 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>> On 9/7/2024 2:17 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>>> On 9/6/2024 5:34 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>>>> On 9/4/2024 8:23 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>>>>> 3 herds in California central valley have been found to be 
>>>>>>>>> positive for the dairy virus.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> https://www.statnews.com/2024/08/29/california-nations-largest- 
>>>>>>>>> milk- producer-discloses-possible-bird-flu-outbreaks-in-three- 
>>>>>>>>> dairy-cow- herds/
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> They claim that California workers are "usually" dedicated to 
>>>>>>>>> just one herd so do not pick up shifts at nearby poultry farms, 
>>>>>>>>> but months ago (before I retired in May) I noted that 
>>>>>>>>> California had high levels of influenza virus in the waste 
>>>>>>>>> water around the bay area.  At that time they had estimated 
>>>>>>>>> that the virus first infected cattle Sept or Oct 2023, and they 
>>>>>>>>> hadn't yet found viral sequence from herds infected that early 
>>>>>>>>> in Texas.  When I looked into the avian influenza cases the 
>>>>>>>>> Dairy virus was most similar to one isolated from a Peregrine 
>>>>>>>>> falcon in California. California had high levels of influenza 
>>>>>>>>> virus in their waste water (associated with infected herds in 
>>>>>>>>> Texas and Michigan) and Commercial poultry farms started to go 
>>>>>>>>> down in the central valley in Oct 2023 (the flocks get infected 
>>>>>>>>> by the dairy workers).  A number of flocks went down within a 
>>>>>>>>> few months working their way up North and around the bay area.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> I contacted a person at the Avian disease ARS station in 
>>>>>>>>> Georgia, and tried to get the name of the person that would 
>>>>>>>>> have the sequence data of the California samples (they had not 
>>>>>>>>> been included in any of the dairy virus studies) but I was told 
>>>>>>>>> that the USDA did not give out that information.  I told the 
>>>>>>>>> guy that they needed to check out those samples, but his 
>>>>>>>>> comment was that they were busy.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> My prediction is that when they sequence the central valley 
>>>>>>>>> virus they could identify the region where the initial dairy 
>>>>>>>>> infection occurred and it spread from California to Texas.  The 
>>>>>>>>> virus spread rapidly out of Texas, but it probably came from 
>>>>>>>>> somewhere else.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> The CDC and USDA would have identified many more states with 
>>>>>>>>> infected herds by now if they had acted on the waste water data 
>>>>>>>>> and the FDA identification of states with virus positive dairy 
>>>>>>>>> products.  The Dairy workers are not being protected from being 
>>>>>>>>> infected in states that refuse to identify their infected herds.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/person-infected-bird- 
>>>>>>>> flu- missouri-no-contact-animals-know-rcna170010
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> There has been a case of H5N1 in a human in Missouri, but this 
>>>>>>>> person did not have contact with poultry or dairy cattle.  My 
>>>>>>>> guess is that it is person to person transmission.  Missouri is 
>>>>>>>> one of the states that has not verified any positive dairy herds 
>>>>>>>> (no one has been looking), but Kansas and Oklahoma have positive 
>>>>>>>> dairy herds. They have known that it was likely human 
>>>>>>>> transmission into Kansas and North Dakota from Texas because 
>>>>>>>> neither states got cattle from Texas, but both states got the 
>>>>>>>> virus from Texas. Human to human transmission has probably been 
>>>>>>>> going on for some time, but they never started contact tracing 
>>>>>>>> to identify possibly infected herds nor to determine how the 
>>>>>>>> virus was transmitted to the herds and poultry flocks that have 
>>>>>>>> been infected.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The virus is H5, but hasn't been confirmed to be the dairy virus. 
>>>>>>> The article notes that Missouri hasn't claimed to have positive 
>>>>>>> herds at this time, but commercial poultry flocks have gone down 
>>>>>>> and that usually happens when the dairies are infected and dairy 
>>>>>>> workers take it to the poultry farms.  Previous human cases had 
>>>>>>> mild symptoms, but this person was hospitalized.  The USDA and 
>>>>>>> CDC are still not doing anything to identify all the infected 
>>>>>>> herds in states like Missouri, so nothing much has been done to 
>>>>>>> minimize the exposure of dairy workers.  My guess is that an 
>>>>>>> infected dairy worker infected this patient, and it is a case of 
>>>>>>> human to human transmission.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> As stupid as it may be the CDC response to the latest human 
>>>>>> infection without contact with animals is worse than can be 
>>>>>> imagined.  They did not send a team to investigate, and have not 
>>>>>> started contact tracing and testing of close contacts.  It seems 
>>>>>> crazy when you think that the person was hospitalized, and this is 
>>>>>> obviously a serious case of infection.  What they do not want is 
>>>>>> the 50% human mortality associated with the H5N1 virus to become a 
>>>>>> reality for the dairy virus.  The CDC continues to do nothing but 
>>>>>> monitor the disease in two states, which is just nuts.  They are 
>>>>>> actually waiting for it to become a noticeable problem somewhere 
>>>>>> else before starting to do anything in other states.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> https://www.statnews.com/2024/09/08/missouri-h5-bird-flu-case- 
>>>>>> questions- cat-raw-milk/
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>>
>>>>>> R
>>>>>>
>>>>> https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-09-missouri-resident-bird-flu- 
>>>>> livestock.html
>>>>>
>>>>> This ariticle seems to be trying to downplay the possibility of 
>>>>> human to human transmission.  The Texas antibody testing of dairy 
>>>>> workers have already come out with evidence for human to human 
>>>>> transmission because one of the workers positive for H5 antibodies 
>>>>> did not have contact with cattle, and only had contact with other 
>>>>> dairy workers. There was also the case of the indoor cat in 
>>>>> Colorado that was probably infected by humans.  The states that did 
>>>>> not get cattle from affected states, but still got the dairy virus 
>>>>> were likely infected by human dairy workers migrating to those 
>>>>> states. Kansas got infected from Texas, and then Dakota got 
>>>>> infected with the strain in Kansas, and Kansas did not get cattle 
>>>>> from Texas, and South Dakota did not get cattle from Kansas.  The 
>>>>> CDC has known this since about the beginning of detecting the 
>>>>> infections in April, but they never started human contact tracing 
>>>>> to determine how all the dairy herds and poultry flocks were being 
>>>>> infected.
>>>>>
>>>>> Humans have been transmitting the virus since the start of this 
>>>>> fiasco. Humans could have brought the virus into Texas.  The Texas 
>>>>> Dairy worker that was the first infection had a virus that had 
>>>>> branched off earlier than the strain that infected Texas.  They 
>>>>> never got the name of that dairy worker, so they couldn't ask him 
>>>>> where he could have been infected.  He could have been infected in 
>>>>> the state that was the origin of the dairy infection.  One of his 
>>>>> fellow dairy workers could have been infected in that same state, 
>>>>> but brought in the Texas strain (one with more substitutions than 
>>>>> the strain that infected the first dairy worker).
>>>>>
>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> New Texas Waste water data indicates that H5N1 seems to have started 
>>>> to be detected in 10 Texas cities monitored in March 2024 (when the 
>>>> Texas Dairy infections were first detected) but were not found in 
>>>> samples taken earlier in the year.  This study used a detection 
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