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From: RonO <rokimoto557@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: California Dairy herds positive for the dairy virus
Date: Mon, 16 Sep 2024 20:30:40 -0500
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On 9/16/2024 8:18 PM, RonO wrote:
> On 9/14/2024 8:27 PM, RonO wrote:
>> On 9/14/2024 6:12 PM, x wrote:
>>> On 9/14/24 15:23, RonO wrote:
>>>> On 9/12/2024 11:59 AM, RonO wrote:
>>>>> On 9/11/2024 12:05 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>> On 9/8/2024 6:55 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>>> On 9/7/2024 2:17 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>>>> On 9/6/2024 5:34 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On 9/4/2024 8:23 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> 3 herds in California central valley have been found to be 
>>>>>>>>>> positive for the dairy virus.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> https://www.statnews.com/2024/08/29/california-nations- 
>>>>>>>>>> largest- milk- producer-discloses-possible-bird-flu-outbreaks- 
>>>>>>>>>> in-three- dairy-cow- herds/
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> They claim that California workers are "usually" dedicated to 
>>>>>>>>>> just one herd so do not pick up shifts at nearby poultry 
>>>>>>>>>> farms, but months ago (before I retired in May) I noted that 
>>>>>>>>>> California had high levels of influenza virus in the waste 
>>>>>>>>>> water around the bay area.  At that time they had estimated 
>>>>>>>>>> that the virus first infected cattle Sept or Oct 2023, and 
>>>>>>>>>> they hadn't yet found viral sequence from herds infected that 
>>>>>>>>>> early in Texas.  When I looked into the avian influenza cases 
>>>>>>>>>> the Dairy virus was most similar to one isolated from a 
>>>>>>>>>> Peregrine falcon in California. California had high levels of 
>>>>>>>>>> influenza virus in their waste water (associated with infected 
>>>>>>>>>> herds in Texas and Michigan) and Commercial poultry farms 
>>>>>>>>>> started to go down in the central valley in Oct 2023 (the 
>>>>>>>>>> flocks get infected by the dairy workers).  A number of flocks 
>>>>>>>>>> went down within a few months working their way up North and 
>>>>>>>>>> around the bay area.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I contacted a person at the Avian disease ARS station in 
>>>>>>>>>> Georgia, and tried to get the name of the person that would 
>>>>>>>>>> have the sequence data of the California samples (they had not 
>>>>>>>>>> been included in any of the dairy virus studies) but I was 
>>>>>>>>>> told that the USDA did not give out that information.  I told 
>>>>>>>>>> the guy that they needed to check out those samples, but his 
>>>>>>>>>> comment was that they were busy.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> My prediction is that when they sequence the central valley 
>>>>>>>>>> virus they could identify the region where the initial dairy 
>>>>>>>>>> infection occurred and it spread from California to Texas.  
>>>>>>>>>> The virus spread rapidly out of Texas, but it probably came 
>>>>>>>>>> from somewhere else.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> The CDC and USDA would have identified many more states with 
>>>>>>>>>> infected herds by now if they had acted on the waste water 
>>>>>>>>>> data and the FDA identification of states with virus positive 
>>>>>>>>>> dairy products.  The Dairy workers are not being protected 
>>>>>>>>>> from being infected in states that refuse to identify their 
>>>>>>>>>> infected herds.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/person-infected- 
>>>>>>>>> bird- flu- missouri-no-contact-animals-know-rcna170010
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> There has been a case of H5N1 in a human in Missouri, but this 
>>>>>>>>> person did not have contact with poultry or dairy cattle.  My 
>>>>>>>>> guess is that it is person to person transmission.  Missouri is 
>>>>>>>>> one of the states that has not verified any positive dairy 
>>>>>>>>> herds (no one has been looking), but Kansas and Oklahoma have 
>>>>>>>>> positive dairy herds. They have known that it was likely human 
>>>>>>>>> transmission into Kansas and North Dakota from Texas because 
>>>>>>>>> neither states got cattle from Texas, but both states got the 
>>>>>>>>> virus from Texas. Human to human transmission has probably been 
>>>>>>>>> going on for some time, but they never started contact tracing 
>>>>>>>>> to identify possibly infected herds nor to determine how the 
>>>>>>>>> virus was transmitted to the herds and poultry flocks that have 
>>>>>>>>> been infected.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The virus is H5, but hasn't been confirmed to be the dairy 
>>>>>>>> virus. The article notes that Missouri hasn't claimed to have 
>>>>>>>> positive herds at this time, but commercial poultry flocks have 
>>>>>>>> gone down and that usually happens when the dairies are infected 
>>>>>>>> and dairy workers take it to the poultry farms.  Previous human 
>>>>>>>> cases had mild symptoms, but this person was hospitalized.  The 
>>>>>>>> USDA and CDC are still not doing anything to identify all the 
>>>>>>>> infected herds in states like Missouri, so nothing much has been 
>>>>>>>> done to minimize the exposure of dairy workers.  My guess is 
>>>>>>>> that an infected dairy worker infected this patient, and it is a 
>>>>>>>> case of human to human transmission.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> As stupid as it may be the CDC response to the latest human 
>>>>>>> infection without contact with animals is worse than can be 
>>>>>>> imagined.  They did not send a team to investigate, and have not 
>>>>>>> started contact tracing and testing of close contacts.  It seems 
>>>>>>> crazy when you think that the person was hospitalized, and this 
>>>>>>> is obviously a serious case of infection.  What they do not want 
>>>>>>> is the 50% human mortality associated with the H5N1 virus to 
>>>>>>> become a reality for the dairy virus.  The CDC continues to do 
>>>>>>> nothing but monitor the disease in two states, which is just 
>>>>>>> nuts.  They are actually waiting for it to become a noticeable 
>>>>>>> problem somewhere else before starting to do anything in other 
>>>>>>> states.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> https://www.statnews.com/2024/09/08/missouri-h5-bird-flu-case- 
>>>>>>> questions- cat-raw-milk/
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> R
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-09-missouri-resident-bird-flu- 
>>>>>> livestock.html
>>>>>>
>>>>>> This ariticle seems to be trying to downplay the possibility of 
>>>>>> human to human transmission.  The Texas antibody testing of dairy 
>>>>>> workers have already come out with evidence for human to human 
>>>>>> transmission because one of the workers positive for H5 antibodies 
>>>>>> did not have contact with cattle, and only had contact with other 
>>>>>> dairy workers. There was also the case of the indoor cat in 
>>>>>> Colorado that was probably infected by humans.  The states that 
>>>>>> did not get cattle from affected states, but still got the dairy 
>>>>>> virus were likely infected by human dairy workers migrating to 
>>>>>> those states. Kansas got infected from Texas, and then Dakota got 
>>>>>> infected with the strain in Kansas, and Kansas did not get cattle 
>>>>>> from Texas, and South Dakota did not get cattle from Kansas.  The 
>>>>>> CDC has known this since about the beginning of detecting the 
>>>>>> infections in April, but they never started human contact tracing 
>>>>>> to determine how all the dairy herds and poultry flocks were being 
>>>>>> infected.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Humans have been transmitting the virus since the start of this 
>>>>>> fiasco. Humans could have brought the virus into Texas.  The Texas 
>>>>>> Dairy worker that was the first infection had a virus that had 
>>>>>> branched off earlier than the strain that infected Texas.  They 
>>>>>> never got the name of that dairy worker, so they couldn't ask him 
>>>>>> where he could have been infected.  He could have been infected in 
>>>>>> the state that was the origin of the dairy infection.  One of his 
>>>>>> fellow dairy workers could have been infected in that same state, 
>>>>>> but brought in the Texas strain (one with more substitutions than 
>>>>>> the strain that infected the first dairy worker).
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>>
>>>>>
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