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From: Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: rec.arts.sf.written
Subject: Re: Whoops! The Atlantic Makes Trump Look EPIC In Cover Intended as a
 Smear
Date: Wed, 18 Sep 2024 19:08:18 -0500
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On 9/18/2024 2:49 PM, D wrote:
> 
> 
> On Wed, 18 Sep 2024, Scott Lurndal wrote:
> 
>> Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
>>> On 9/17/2024 6:11 PM, quadibloc wrote:
>>>> On Mon, 16 Sep 2024 16:29:18 +0000, Don wrote:
>>>>
>>
>>>> Global warming is not an imaginary spectre. The science involved is
>>>> really basic stuff.
>>
>>>
>>> Any Global Warming is not caused by humans so your basic thesis is
>>> wrong.
>>
>> You claim to be a process chemist, yet you make such
>> speciously _wrong_ statements.   Svante August Arrhenius proved the
>> effects of CO2 on the atmosphere over a century ago (and earned
>> a Nobel prize in Chemistry).
>>
> 
> Why was Svante Arrhenius wrong about CO2?
> 
> Introduction to Arrhenius’ Work Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish physical 
> chemist, is often credited with the early scientific foundation of the 
> greenhouse effect and global warming due to carbon dioxide (CO2). In his 
> 1896 publication, he posited that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 could 
> lead to an increase in global temperatures by approximately 5 to 6 
> degrees Celsius. This assertion was based on his calculations regarding 
> the heat absorption properties of CO2 compared to water vapor.
> 
> Overestimation of Temperature Increase One of the primary reasons 
> Arrhenius was considered wrong about CO2’s impact on temperature is that 
> he significantly overestimated the effect of a doubling of CO2 
> concentration. His initial calculations suggested a temperature rise 
> between 5 and 6°C; however, later revisions indicated that this figure 
> was too high. By 1906, after further analysis and feedback from 
> contemporaries like Knut Ångström, Arrhenius revised his estimate 
> downwards to around 1.2°C directly and up to 2.1°C when accounting for 
> feedback effects from water vapor.
> 
> Errors in Absorption Coefficient Arrhenius’s original calculations were 
> heavily reliant on his estimates for the absorption coefficient of CO2. 
> The absorption coefficient is crucial because it determines how 
> effectively a gas can absorb infrared radiation (heat). Ångström 
> challenged Arrhenius’s values, suggesting they were inaccurate. This 
> discrepancy highlighted that Arrhenius had not fully accounted for the 
> complexities involved in how different gases interact with infrared 
> radiation.
> 
> Neglecting Water Vapor’s Dominance Another critical factor in 
> Arrhenius’s miscalculations was his underestimation of water vapor’s 
> role as a greenhouse gas. Water vapor constitutes a much larger portion 
> of the atmosphere compared to CO2 and has a more significant impact on 
> climate due to its higher concentration and ability to absorb heat 
> across various wavelengths. While Arrhenius recognized CO2 as an 
> important greenhouse gas, he did not adequately emphasize that its 
> effects would be overshadowed by those of water vapor.
> 
> Advancements in Climate Science The understanding of climate dynamics 
> has evolved significantly since Arrhenius’s time. Modern climate models 
> incorporate complex interactions among various greenhouse gases, 
> including feedback loops involving clouds and aerosols, which were not 
> part of Arrhenius’s simpler models. These advancements have led to more 
> accurate predictions regarding temperature increases associated with 
> rising levels of CO2.
> 
> Conclusion: Legacy and Misunderstandings While Svante Arrhenius laid 
> important groundwork for understanding the greenhouse effect, subsequent 
> research revealed that his initial estimates were overly optimistic due 
> to errors in calculation methods and assumptions about atmospheric 
> chemistry. His work serves as both a historical milestone in climate 
> science and an example of how scientific understanding can evolve over 
> time through rigorous testing and validation.

Chemical saturation limits EVERYTHING but is rarely taken into account.

Lynn