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From: Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: rec.arts.sf.written
Subject: Re: Whoops! The Atlantic Makes Trump Look EPIC In Cover Intended as a
 Smear
Date: Thu, 19 Sep 2024 16:08:49 -0500
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On 9/19/2024 3:03 PM, quadibloc wrote:
> On 9/18/2024 2:49 PM, D wrote:
> 
>> Why was Svante Arrhenius wrong about CO2?
> 
>> Overestimation of Temperature Increase
>> One of the primary reasons
>> Arrhenius was considered wrong about CO2’s impact on temperature is that
>> he significantly overestimated the effect of a doubling of CO2
>> concentration.
> 
> I'm not aware that scientists concerned about global warming
> are going around insisting Svante Arrhenius' estimates were
> right.
> 
>> Neglecting Water Vapor’s Dominance
>> Another critical factor in
>> Arrhenius’s miscalculations was his underestimation of water vapor’s
>> role as a greenhouse gas. Water vapor constitutes a much larger portion
>> of the atmosphere compared to CO2 and has a more significant impact on
>> climate due to its higher concentration and ability to absorb heat
>> across various wavelengths. While Arrhenius recognized CO2 as an
>> important greenhouse gas, he did not adequately emphasize that its
>> effects would be overshadowed by those of water vapor.
> 
> Now, this one is a total red herring.
> 
> The reason should be obvious.
> 
> What determines the level of water vapor in the atmosphere? Is it
> being increased, say, by irrigation projects spraying water on
> crops, which we should curtail before worrying about fossil
> fuels?
> 
> No. The amount of water vapor in the atmosphere... is mostly due to
> evaporation from the oceans and lakes and rivers. Which is controlled
> by global temperatures.
> 
> So water vapor is part of a feedback loop that amplifies the effects
> of extra carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Because the carbon dioxide
> level is a *free* variable, that we're affecting significantly by our
> use of fossil fuels.
> 
> John Savard

We have extra water in the upper atmosphere right now due to the 
underwater volcano spewing water vapor, "Tonga Eruption May Temporarily 
Push Earth Closer to 1.5°C of Warming"
  
https://eos.org/articles/tonga-eruption-may-temporarily-push-earth-closer-to-1-5c-of-warming

"The underwater eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai sent megatons of 
water vapor into the stratosphere, contributing to an increase in global 
warming over the next 5 years."

Lynn