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From: Physfitfreak <physfitfreak@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: sci.physics
Subject: Re: What Made My Day Today? :-)
Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2024 01:52:27 -0500
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On 9/14/24 19:53, Physfitfreak wrote:
> 
> 
> Gha'em 100 rocket flawlessly placed a research satellite today in the 
> orbit.
> 
> I think the days of contemplating to ask Russians to place Iranian 
> satellites in orbit are over. Not only it's not needed, it is also 
> almost 20 times cheaper to do it with Gha'em.
> 



- Prior to this last satellite, anything Iran placed on orbit were 
little bitty things, very light (about 2 to 5 kg), and limited in 
instrumentation and scope. But this last one is 60 kg. They're calling 
it a "research" satellite (read that, "tests of coming instrumentation 
inside future military missiles and satellites to function at such 
altitudes"), so this one was the first to be used as a true satellite, 
and not something to be testing stuff related to the launching process 
itself, or the management of the satellites in general.


- But what made my day today (in a way), is that the Lebanese Militia 
forces are only now realizing they cannot win by magic :)

Hehe :-)

God won't help you if you don't help yourself. Gone are those decades 
where just the ability and willingness to engage in war in an Arab would 
distinguish Shi'ite Arabs from Sonni Arabs and Christian Arabs. Shi'ite 
Arabs were historically discriminated against by all other Arabs of all 
religions. So they were the only ones who could actually fight in a war. 
The rest of Arabs only knew how to run away. They didn't have the will 
to fight. That's how they handed Palestine to the Jews of Europe.

But in this day and time, the edge that a Shi'ite Arab has over all the 
other Arabs, by itself, will not win him a war. 2006 was the last time 
it still worked. Now mastering the technology is paramount in conducting 
a war. Anything short of it will get you what Lebanon's militia 
experienced with their booby trapped devices.


15 years back when Iran was telling Shi'ite militias of Lebanon they had 
to develop their own technology before using them as some instrument of 
war management, they were dismissive. Now they've learned their lessons. 
Now they know they have to build their own instruments of any kind.

This far I think is certain.

Now guesses. I can make a wild guess Lebanon's Shi'ite militia is at a 
stage that Iran was in September of 1980 when Saddam attacked Iran, but 
without the Aces that Iran had in those days to put matters immediately 
on a track to develop technology that was needed in that war. A lot of 
defense industries in Iran were founded right in that time by a handful 
of Aces, and a large number of bright newly graduates of technical and 
scientific fields in Iran's universities, especially the present Sharif 
University. Does the Hezbollah of Lebanon of today possess such assets?...

In Iran of those times it took only 5 years to begin from zero, and 
without any help that computer and electronics industries offer today, 
only using plain old electronics and integrated circuits, to develop her 
own versions of Scuds, modified successfully to travel much longer 
distances, and with relatively better accuracy too. The MKO's camp 
inside Iraq was a very little town, and yet Iran's missiles hit it quite 
successfully many times. The Scud blueprints Iran had (supposedly) 
obtained from North Korea was for a short range missile that didn't 
really help Iran against Saddam's better missiles. But 5 years after the 
war began Iran began hitting Iraqi cities in retaliation to Saddam's 
doing same earlier.

Missiles weren't the only development that took place. In many ways 
related to a war, anything that was needed was developed. The junk that 
Israelis sold Iran in that war never helped anything. It was what Iran 
was building herself that helped.

So this thing for Lebanese Militia is going to take a while. There are 
other issues about them too. First off, from day one they've been 
looking at Iran to help them. That has been a strategic mistake. This 
pleading Iran for help goes back to 1950s...! The Shi'ites there were in 
those years just sitting there like ducks getting abused in every 
imaginable form by the Christians as well as the Sonnis of Lebanon, and 
by the Israelis farther south adjacent to them. It had gotten so bad 
that the clerics in Iran decided to help them, as nothing was coming out 
of those Shi'ites in Lebanon from themselves. The clerics convinced Shah 
to use SAVAK to clandestinely help those Shi'ites. Clerics had the young 
man for it, but SAVAK was to help with money and logistics. This was 
done in late 1950s!... Neither CIA, nor the wonderful Mossad, and 
certainly not KGB found that out. It was done right under their noses too.

That's how the Ace, Musa Sadr, began his work in Lebanon and later with 
other Aces built many infrastructures for the Shi'ites to create the 
backbone necessary to defend their rights in that fucked up "country." 
He was the one (together with another Iranian Ace - his name is too good 
for you motherfuckers) who created the military force "Amal." The first 
of its kind. It still exists.

Lebanon wasn't even a country back then. Everybody was waiting for its 
"internationally recognized" borders with Syria to dissolve. Like all 
those other funky borders that the savage French in 1920 had drawn by 
themselves, using their dicks I guess, inside a map of today's Syria, 
and a few years later were dissolved and gone by themselves. Lebanon has 
always been Syria. It is a section of Syria. I don't even think Lebanon 
has an embassy in Syria. Syria also does not have an embassy in Lebanon. 
Syria engaged in wars against Israel because Israel wanted to invade a 
part of Syria that was called "Lebanon."


Back to Lebanese militia's present predicament. This strategic decision 
by clerics of Iran (and Shah and his SAVAK establishments) in the 2nd 
half of 1950s set a bad precedence with those militia forces. Today, it 
helps kill the badly needed sense of those militia starting something on 
their own and from the first steps. Houthis didn't fall into that trap 
because I think Iran began helping them much after they had done a lot 
by themselves. And even then they weren't very much responsive to 
receiving help; they wanted to do everything by themselves.

Result is that, now Houthis are making copies of Kheybarshekans that are 
better than the ones Iran makes. Theirs travel twice as far, reaching 
Israel more than 2000 km away in just 20 minutes. And since they're 
hypersonic, nobody can realistically intercept them. The one they 
recently tried on Israel could not get stopped by American and British 
Navies, Saudi Arabian air defense, Jordanian air defense, and Israel's 
own air defenses. And all of them tried to stop it. That's the 
difference between people who insisted from day one to rely on 
themselves, and the Lebanese militia who yearned or at least accepted 
being helped and pampered by Iran.

But war builds technologies. They make those engaged, to develop it 
instead of asking others to sell them what they need. So this new 
development for the militia of Lebanon is indeed positive.