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From: RonO <rokimoto557@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: Dairy cattle mortality in California
Date: Thu, 17 Oct 2024 17:02:50 -0500
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On 10/16/2024 6:26 PM, RonO wrote:
> On 10/14/2024 4:41 PM, RonO wrote:
>> On 10/14/2024 4:10 PM, RonO wrote:
>>> On 10/13/2024 9:49 AM, RonO wrote:
>>>> Second attempt to post:
>>>>
>>>> https://www.newsweek.com/disturbing-footage-reveals-bird-flu- 
>>>> infected- cattle-dumped-roadside-1967813
>>>>
>>>> As noted in previous posts the California strain of the dairy 
>>>> influenza virus has a higher mortality rate among cattle than the 
>>>> initial virus. Apparently dead cattle are piling up and not being 
>>>> disposed of in a biosecure manner.
>>>>
>>>> The esimate is that there are over 1,100 dairy herds in California 
>>>> and 100 have already been confirmed to be infected with more herds 
>>>> detected by California health officials and already submitted for 
>>>> verification.
>>>>
>>>> 20% of the dairy herd in the US is in California (over a million 
>>>> cattle).  The mortality rate was initially 2%, but around 15% of the 
>>>> infected cattle are dying in California.  Initially around 10% of 
>>>> the herd was infected at any one time, but now 50% of the herd is 
>>>> found to be infected in some cases.
>>>>
>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>
>>>
>>> https://evrimagaci.org/tpg/california-confronts-bird-flu-cases-among- 
>>> dairy-workers-45706
>>>
>>> This article claims that California has been contact tracing since 
>>> the start in late August.  After the first couple weeks the first 
>>> claims were that they thought that they had isolated the infected 
>>> herds to around half a dozen because they shared workers between the 
>>> farms, but the contacts obviously exploded out of those first half 
>>> dozen and now they likely have over a 100 infected dairy herds 
>>> identified some of them before the cattle showed symptoms.
>>>
>>> The claim is that there is still no evidence for human to human 
>>> transmission, but that hasn't been true since late July.  A Texas 
>>> study released their data before peer review.
>>>
>>> https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/previously- 
>>> undetected-h5n1-avian-flu-cases-farmworkers-revealed-new-report
>>>
>>> They released this data in late July, but the CDC has never 
>>> incorporated the data into the known human infections.  What they 
>>> found was they tested 14 dairy workers from two farms and two of the 
>>> dairy workers from one of the farms had antibodies to H5 indicating 
>>> that they had been infected by the dairy virus.  One of those workers 
>>> only had contact with other dairy workers, and did not have contact 
>>> with cattle (cafeteria worker).  Their submitted publication 
>>> indicated that this was evidence for human to human transmission 
>>> (worker infected by dairy cattle, and one worker infected that did 
>>> not have contact with cattle).
>>>
>>> The initial Texas data indicated that around 10% of a herd was 
>>> infected (showed symptoms), but when these researchers tested 39 milk 
>>> samples from the two farms they found 64% of the samples had H5N1 
>>> virus.  This is closer to the 50% infection rate that California is 
>>> experiencing, but the mortality in Texas was only 2% while it is 10 
>>> to 15% of infected animals in California.  So going by symptoms under 
>>> estimated the rate of infection in Texas herds.  They should have 
>>> implemented testing like they have in California, and they would have 
>>> had a better estimate of the actual infection rate.
>>>
>>> One of the authors of this paper is quoted in the news article.
>>>
>>> QUOTE:
>>> "I am very confident there are more people being infected than we 
>>> know about," senior author Gregory Gray, MD, MPH, a UTMB infectious 
>>> disease researcher, told NPR. "Largely, that's because our 
>>> surveillance has been so poor."
>>> END QUOTE:
>>>
>>> It should be noted that the CDC never changed their minds, and 
>>> surveillance continues to be poor (except in California where they 
>>> implemented contact tracing) for the rest of the nation.
>>>
>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>
>>
>> https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/california- 
>> reports-4-more-probable-h5-cases-dairy-workers
>>
>> California is reporting 4 more cases of human infections.  This makes 
>> the total 11 for California.  It means that the other states have been 
>> severely under reporting cases, mainly because they are not testing 
>> and contact tracing.
>>
>> The cases need to be confirmed by the CDC, but the previous ones were 
>> verified, and California is likely using the CDC PCR test.  It should 
>> have been fixed by now, and initially had issues with false negative 
>> results when the CDC first put it out, but they have had more than 
>> half a year to fix that test, and false negative results are not an 
>> issue for positive test results.
>>
>> 11 cases involving 9 farms.  2 cases were at the same farm, but it was 
>> a huge dairy farm (something like 5,000 cows) and the two workers 
>> worked at different parts of the farm, and did not have contact with 
>> each other.  So it looks like all of them were infected by cattle.  In 
>> a previous article California health officials claimed that they were 
>> tracing close contacts of the infected dairy workers, and would be 
>> testing those contacts if they exhibit symptoms.  It won't be any 
>> surprise if they find close contacts infected because in both Michigan 
>> and Texas where they asked the question they found that twice as many 
>> close contacts of dairy workers worked at poultry farms or other dairy 
>> farms as the dairy workers themselves, and both Texas and Michigan had 
>> infected poultry flocks with the dairy virus.  So they already have 
>> known for months that close contacts may have been spreading the dairy 
>> virus.  The CDC just never implemented testing and contact tracing.
>>
>> Ron Okimoto
> 
> https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian- 
> influenza/hpai-detections/hpai-confirmed-cases-livestock
> 
> The USDA just updated their herd infection data adding 5 California 
> herds since the last update last week.  The number of herds infected in 
> California went from 99 to 104, but the 5 additions were supposedly 
> confirmed Oct 10 (last Thursday), and more herds have been submitted 
> since then.  The USDA dosen't seem to be keeping up with what California 
> is sending them.  The USDA is still refusing to start contact tracing 
> and increase testing in other states.  My guess is that they will have 
> another batch confirmed tomorrow, but may not report them until next week.
> 
> The California health department is claiming that California has over 
> 1,100 dairy herds consisting of over 1.7 million cattle.  The initial 
> hope was that because most dairies are very large and have full time 
> staff that there would be a more limited number of dairy workers with 
> jobs at multiple dairies as is the case in other states with mostly 
> smaller herds and part time workers.  Contact tracing of workers from 
> infected farms has allowed California to detect infections in around 9% 
> of the California dairy herds.  This likely means that herd infections 
> have been severely under reported in other states, but the USDA and CDC 
> refuse to start contact tracing and testing in other states when they 
> know that it is the only way that they are going to get the epidemic 
> under control and reduce worker exposure to infection.  The CDC is still 
> only recommending protective gear for workers working with infected 
> animals, but they refuse to identify the infected herds so that workers 
> would know that they should wear protective gear.  California has 
> identified 11 dairy workers infected with the dairy influenza.
> 
> As sad as it may be the CDC is still claiming that only around 250 
> people associated with infected animals have been tested.  The number is 
> currently +250.  California may push them closer to 300.  The number of 
> human cases claimed is 25, but one is the Missouri case that did not 
> have exposure to infected animals.
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