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From: x <x@x.org>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: California dairy influenza infects 170 herds?
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2024 09:12:26 -0700
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On 10/30/24 06:34, RonO wrote:
> On 10/30/2024 6:17 AM, x wrote:
>> On 10/28/24 07:47, RonO wrote:
>>> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-28/bird-flu-cases-in- 
>>> dairy-cows-roil-farmers-in-california
>>>
>>> This Bloomberg article cites a dramatic increase in the number of 
>>> dairy herds infected in California, but the normal internet sources 
>>> do not back up this number at this time.  The claim of 170 infected 
>>> herds is much higher than the USDA claim last Friday of 137.
>>>
>>> The Bloomberg article notes that this is 40% of all infected herds 
>>> confirmed in the US at this time, but they do not note that this is 
>>> because no other state began contact tracing in order to identify the 
>>> infected herds.  It is likely that the majority of infected herds in 
>>> all the other states were never identified because no one wanted to 
>>> determine that they were infected.  Contact tracing was never 
>>> implimented anywhere else, and that is still the case.  The increased 
>>> efforts to assist contact tracing to identify infected herds 
>>> undertaken by the USDA applies only to California at this time.
>>>
>>> The California contact tracing is likely responsible for the 
>>> identification of two more herds in Idaho last week.  These herds 
>>> were likely not identified by the current means that Idaho is 
>>> employing because they are relying on self reporting, hadn't self 
>>> reported an infected herd for over a month, and California had 
>>> tracked contact back to Idaho.
>>>
>>> Ron Okimoto
>>
>> So.
>>
>> Pasteurization does NOT destroy the virus?
> 
> The CDC researchers tested the two most common pasteurization methods. 
> The most common method of heating milk to 72 degrees C for 15 to 20 
> seconds failed to reduce the detection of live virus to below detection 
> level.  Infective virus was surviving that method, but the 63 degree C 
> for 30 minute method did reduce the live virus to below detection 
> levels.  The CDC methods did not fully replicate the pasteurization 
> methods, but the article recommended that the milk supply should be 
> tested in a more thorough manner than the FDA had done to claim that the 
> milk supply was safe.  The CDC has never made a big deal about this 
> research and just published it in their Nov 2024 newsletter.  It sounds 
> like the USDA is going to redo the pasteurization analysis at milk 
> plants, at least, in California.  The claim is that they were going to 
> do live virus assays at milk plants.
> 
>>
>> Avoid drinking milk or eating cheese?
> 
> Cheese is likely safe.  The CDC did find that the virus survived in 
> refrigerated milk for at least 4 days.
> 
>>
>> There is now a clearly testable way of showing that this
>> baby died because it drank that milk?
> 
> How the Missouri patient was infected is not known, but the patient had 
> the same symptoms exhibited by individuals that had ingested the Asian 
> H5N1 virus (drank goose blood) so milk cannot be ruled out.  The CDC 
> refuses to acknowledge these symptoms of H5N1 infection that occurred in 
> Asia.  They also refuse to accept that the antibody detection screen 
> confirmed that the household contact of the Missouri patient that had 
> the same symptoms had been infected by the dairy virus.  They note that 
> the antibody assay "failed" even for the patient that had been confirmed 
> to be infected, and do not count the close contact as "confirmed" 
> infected.  Like the infected patient their close contact was only 
> positive for one of the 3 antibody assays, so that test can be 
> considered to be a failure and it determined that the Missouri patient 
> and contact did not mount an effective immune response against the 
> virus.  This just means that the current antibody tests are not reliable 
> for detecting past infections, so there may not be an effective means of 
> identifying people that have been infected, but are no longer shedding 
> virus.  Previous research on the Asian H5N1 virus indicated that some 
> people were not mounting an effective immune response to the virus, and 
> had not produced neutralizing antibodies though some H5 antibodies could 
> be detected.
> 
> All of this would be less of an issue if the CDC and USDA had started 
> contact tracing and testing at the very beginning of the dairy epidemic. 
>   California has demonstrated that contact tracing is very effective in 
> identifying more infected herds, and the USDA is now assisting in that 
> effort, but only in California.  Contact tracing and testing needs to be 
> done in all states with known infected dairies, or that have dairy virus 
> infected poultry flocks because it has been known from the start in 
> Texas that the poultry farms get infected by proximity to infected 
> dairies (probably because some dairy workers on infected farms also work 
> on poultry farms).
> 
> The more infected dairies that are allowed to remain undetected the more 
> dairy workers will be infected, and the more poultry flocks and poultry 
> workers will be infected, but the USDA and CDC refuse to do what needs 
> to be done to identify the infected herds.
> 
> Ron Okimoto
>>
>> Got it.

Are there many flu shots that generate H5N1 antibodies now?