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From: RonO <rokimoto557@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Oregon identifies 3 H5N1 infected farm workers that came from
 Washington
Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2024 22:52:12 -0500
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https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/oregon-identifies-3-human-cases-bird-flu-people-washington-state-2024-10-31/

Oregon apparently tested some workers showing symptoms that had come 
from the infected poultry farms in Washington, and found 3 of them 
shedding the virus.  This should tell just about anyone with a brain how 
states that did not get cattle were infected by the dairy virus.  It 
should also tell both Oregon and Washington that they should be testing 
their dairies because poultry flocks in other states have been infected 
by proximity to infected dairy herds, likely due to sharing workers 
between dairy and poultry farms.

This example indicates that migrant workers have likely been taking the 
virus to other states for quite some time.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-begin-bulk-milk-testing-bird-flu-after-push-industry-2024-10-30/

Yesterday the number of infected herds went to over 400.  The mortality 
among infected cattle has increased, and the dairy industry is finally 
accepting bulk milk testing of dairies to identify infected herds. 
Apparently this is a request by the dairy industry, when the dairy 
industry has been against testing because they likely did not want to 
know how bad the situation was.  It would have been bad for business. 
The article notes that the current situation of not testing was due to 
push back from the industry on efforts to get testing started by the 
USDA.  In California the mortality and loss of production among 
survivors has negatively impacted milk production, and it will take a 
long time to build production up to what it was.  The dairy industry 
cannot afford to let that continue.

The problem is that they are only going to do the testing in states that 
have known infected herds.  They should be doing it in Washington and 
Oregon and all other states that have had poultry infected with the 
dairy virus, but that have not claimed infected herds like Florida that 
the FDA had identified as producing H5N1 infected dairy products back in 
May, and that have subsequently had poultry flocks come down with the 
dairy virus.

The CDC is still maintaining that the "danger" to the general population 
remains low.  The danger is not to the low infection rate currently 
among dairy and poultry workers, but the possibility of those two 
mutations occurring in the H5 gene that would make the virus a human 
infective virus.  Those 2 mutations are likely occurring multiple times 
in virus produced by a single infection in each cow, but the number of 
virus that infect other cows is very low compared to the number of virus 
produced by that infected cow.  The real danger is infection in people 
where if those two mutations do occur they could more easily multiply in 
the infected individual out competing the non mutant counterparts.  We 
are just stupidly lucky that the virus doesn't seem to be replicating in 
humans that well or those two mutations would have likely already 
occurred in an infected human and spread out of control by now.  The CDC 
should ask Behe and Snokes how often that they expect the two mutations 
to occur in a virus if they do not have to occur at the same time during 
an infection.  One could occur and the other could occur a few viral 
cell infections later.  Thousands of cells could be producing the virus 
with the first mutation.  Behe and Snokes found that a population of 100 
million could routinely produce double neutral mutations in the same 
lineage, and RNA virus mutation rate is much higher than eukaryotic 
mutation rate.

Ron Okimoto