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From: RonO <rokimoto557@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: California cases exploding with USDA assistance.
Date: Fri, 15 Nov 2024 18:17:29 -0600
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On 11/15/2024 6:43 AM, Kerr-Mudd, John wrote:
> On Thu, 14 Nov 2024 14:27:33 -0600
> RonO <rokimoto557@gmail.com> wrote:
> 
>> On 11/13/2024 8:39 AM, RonO wrote:
>>> On 11/9/2024 12:42 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>> On 11/6/2024 4:58 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>> On 11/4/2024 8:48 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>> On 11/4/2024 4:33 PM, RonO wrote:
> []
> 
> 
>> 13 more herds have been added in California so the total on the USDA
>> list is now 292.
>>
> 
> 
> It might be time to alert RFK(jr) before the next pandemic kicks in - oh dear.
> 

RFK jr is one of the anti-vacciation nut jobs that doesn't trust the 
FDA.  The current stupidity with the dairy epidemic is exactly what 
could support his position.  Early on the CDC gave up on containing the 
dairy infection and trying to reduce human exposure.  Instead of contact 
tracing and identifying all the infected dairies in order to reduce 
dairy worker infections the CDC decided to let the virus evolve into a 
human pathogen.  Their claim was that they could catch the infection 
spreading through the human population early enough with their 
surveillance that they could contain the infection somewhere.  It was a 
stupid idea, but they have stuck with it until too many dairy workers 
were getting infected, and many had been infected but never tested.

They stockpiled vaccine to an H5 virus that they had already been 
considered for vaccine production.  It was tested and did produce 
neutralizing antibodies to the initial dairy virus, but the dairy virus 
has mutated since then, and they found that the Missouri human patient's 
virus was not effectively neutralized by the current antibodies.  They 
had to make a synthetic H5 gene with the two Missouri mutations in it in 
order to determine if the Missouri patient had produced neutralizing 
antibodies to the dairy virus.  The Missouri patient and their close 
contact that exhibited symptoms failed 2 out of the 3 antibody tests 
(positive for only one test).  This was a fail, but since they knew that 
the patient had been infected they admitted that the patient's close 
contact had also likely been infected, but neither individual had 
mounted an effective immune response against the virus.

It may be that they do not have a vaccine that will do much in terms of 
trying to contain the infection after it starts spreading in the human 
population.  The California dairy virus also has 2 or 3 (two different 
variants have been found) additional amino acid substitutions (they 
haven't said if any amino acid substitutions were shared with the 
Missouri variant, and have only given number of substitutions).

The failure of the stockpiled vaccine could be just what RFK jr needs to 
mess with the system.  If they do have to use it, and it isn't up to 
doing the job.

3 more infected California herds were added today.  The claim was that 
the bulk milk tank testing of all the dairies in California would start 
within 30 days a week ago, so all the new numbers are likely what they 
have found by contact tracing to other dairies.

My take that there hasn't been enough time since early October to infect 
so many herds (one estimate was that they would find 500 herds by the 
end of November, and they have found around 300 so far).  The infection 
has likely been festering in California for longer than the end of 
August.  They need to do a sequence evaluation to determine how it has 
been spreading through the Calfornia herds and for how long.

Ron Okimoto