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From: Mark Isaak <specimenNOSPAM@curioustaxon.omy.net>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: Ool - out at first base?
Date: Mon, 16 Dec 2024 11:47:47 -0800
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On 12/13/24 5:37 PM, MarkE wrote:
> On 14/12/2024 4:19 am, Bob Casanova wrote:
>> On Wed, 11 Dec 2024 10:51:36 +1100, the following appeared
>> in talk.origins, posted by MarkE <me22over7@gmail.com>:
>>> [...]
>>> In summary the argument is: if a hypothesised little warm pond (or
>>> thermal vent, etc) has virtually zero chance of producing this
>>> protocell, then no amount of ponds and planets will help:
>>>
>>> P(OoL) = N_ponds x N_planets x P(protocell) x P(post-protocell)
>>>
>>> If P(protocell) -> 0, then P(OoL) -> 0
>>>
>>> Of course, it remains to be demonstrated that P(protocell) -> 0, but
>>> would you agree with the logic of the argument?
>>>
>> Logic is worthless absent data, and can prove (or disprove)
>> nothing. Your argument is as valid as that of the Fermi
>> "Paradox" or arguments regarding the number of angels that
>> can dance on a pinpoint; i.e., of zero value without data.
>> So again, please provide the mathematical calculations which
>> support your assertions. In detail, please, with error bars.
>>>
> 
> You're avoiding the question. Establishing the overall logic and 
> assumptions of a hypothesis is sensible before investing in the heavy 
> lifting of numerically testing it.

What you call logic is, in fact, error. You are relying on the false 
assumption that "unknown" = "impossible".

-- 
Mark Isaak
"Wisdom begins when you discover the difference between 'That
doesn't make sense' and 'I don't understand.'" - Mary Doria Russell